Ideas
Bitcoin near cyclical bottom, consider buying
Hashrate peaks historically coincide with Bitcoin price bottoms. Current hashrate decline, miner daily revenue at lower end of yearly range, and price below estimated production cost (~$76k) suggest a cyclical bottom may be near. Miner migration to AI infrastructure indirectly confirms mining unprofitability, creating a potential buying opportunity.
Oil market extremely tight, spike risk
The oil market is in its tightest environment in 30 years: record high 3-2-1 crack spreads signal a shortage of refining capacity. Russian refining outages, logistics chokepoints, low inventories, and the risk of a second strait closure create extreme vulnerability. Crude could spike to $200/bbl if conditions persist or worsen.
Ruble to weaken, buy dollars
The ruble is in a long-term devaluation trend against the dollar, driven by much faster M2 growth in Russia than in the US. The wave structure suggests a triangle correction, with a potential D-wave push toward 110-116 USD/RUB. Despite the lower yield on dollars, holding USD offers better safety against a sharp ruble drop of 30-40% over the next year.
Buy gold on fourth wave dip
Gold will continue to rise driven by the liquidity cycle. Currently in a large wave 4 correction with support around 3400, offering a buying opportunity near the lower end of the expected range. Speaker holds a collar position and plans to take profit on a move toward 5600/5300, expecting an eventual fifth wave rally.
Silver near lower range, buy opportunity
Silver is in a similar fourth wave correction as gold, with maximum drawdown limited to about 40%. Price is already near the lower end of that range, presenting a favorable risk/reward for a long position within an overall uptrend.
FCX breakout, copper deficit drives upside
Copper is near highs and the speaker is long FCX as a proxy. After a long accumulation phase, FCX broke out and can reach 140. Fundamentally, copper is in a structural deficit driven by massive data-center capex, and the chart shows no sign of a V-top reversal yet, supporting further upside.
Avoid hyperscalers, debt cycle will bite
Hyperscalers (Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Oracle, Nvidia) are entering a phase where cumulative capex will exceed cumulative operating cash flow, forcing them to take on significant debt. This growing leverage, hidden through off-balance-sheet structures, is likely to worsen free cash flow and pressure valuations. The speaker prefers to stay away despite the strong business momentum.
S&P 500 super-cycle target 15k–16k
Near term, S&P 500 is expected to correct into August-September, possibly down to 7,000, before resuming the uptrend. The speaker plans to aggressively buy dips using stock-picking and an options hedging strategy (protective puts rolled higher if the market falls further), expecting the buy-the-dip approach to work well in this phase of the cycle.
TLT may rally, use options for safety
TLT could recover if inflation expectations moderate and yields decline, given that the long end is anchored to the 3.5% fed funds rate. The 5% yield on 20-year bonds already embeds a 1.5% spread that historically is unlikely to widen dramatically. The speaker may open a position using options to limit risk.
Watch China triangle for entry zone
The HSCEI is trading inside a large triangle pattern. The speaker is waiting for a move into a lower support zone to enter, expecting a high-probability bounce within the consolidation. A breakout above or below the triangle boundaries has not yet occurred, making this a developing setup worth monitoring.
Tencent cheap with revenue acceleration, buy
Tencent (0700.HK) was bought around 440-445 with a target of 700. Fundamentals are strong: revenue acceleration, 6.5% earnings yield (almost double that of the S&P 500), wide moat, and impressive ability to grow revenue despite deflationary pressure in China. Valuation metrics like EV/EBITDA look cheap relative to global peers.
MOEX triangle bounce, full rally needs peace
The MOEX Russia index just bounced sharply, potentially forming a triangle pattern as a fourth wave. A move to 2700-2800 is possible, followed by further consolidation swings. However, the real fifth-wave rally is unlikely until the military conflict ends, because domestic liquidity is diverted to finance the budget deficit.
Gazprom can be bought, monopoly resilience
Gazprom is a state monopoly that will survive and can be bought now. It could benefit from a potential resumption of gas transit to Europe, an eventual deal on Power of Siberia 2, and its dominant position in Russia’s huge internal market. The stock is too big to ignore in a narrow Russian blue-chip universe.
First Solar cup-handle breakout, own it
First Solar (FSLR) shows a large cup-and-handle formation. The company manufactures solar panels in the US independent of Chinese supply. Fundamentals are very strong: 75/100 composite score, 4/5 stars, revenue acceleration, and a 7.6% earnings yield, roughly twice as cheap as the S&P 500. Speaker awaits the breakout.
This Dmitry Solodin video, published July 25, 2026,
features Dmitry Solodin
discussing BTC, BNO, USD/RUB, GLD, SILVER, FCX, AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, META, ORCL, NVDA, SPY, TLT, HSCEI, 0700.HK, IMOEX, GAZP.ME, FSLR.
14 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Dmitry Solodin
· Tickers:
BTC,
BNO,
USD/RUB,
GLD,
SILVER,
FCX,
AMZN,
MSFT,
GOOGL,
META,
ORCL,
NVDA,
SPY,
TLT,
HSCEI,
0700.HK,
IMOEX,
GAZP.ME,
FSLR
