Oil Normalization to Take 'A Long Time,' Ashford Says

Summary

Emily Ashford, head of energy research at Standard Chartered, discusses oil markets amid US-Iran diplomacy and Strait of Hormuz tensions. She notes that while the market is pricing in a quick de-escalation via sharp corrections, normalization will take a long time and optimism may be premature, suggesting oil supply risks will persist.

• Oil prices have been declining and correcting on diplomatic headlines suggesting de-escalation.
• The market hopes for a short-term pressure release valve and safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Ashford argues the pace of normalization in oil flows will still take a long time.
• Recent optimism following preliminary agreements could be premature given unresolved security issues.
• The underlying thesis implies that supply disruptions may linger, supporting oil prices.