Bloomberg Surveillance 7/28/2026

Summary

The program covers a sharp selloff in AI and semiconductor stocks triggered by reports of Chinese competition in chipmaking tools and mounting financing concerns. Guests debate whether the AI trade is overvalued or offering long-term opportunity ahead of mega-cap tech earnings and a Federal Reserve decision. The Fed is expected to hold rates with possible dissents as Chairman Kevin Warsh faces a family fight over communication policy, while geopolitical tensions with Iran show signs of easing.

• AI chip stocks plunge after a report that China is mass-producing lithography machines, threatening ASML and memory-chip margins.
• Cameron Dawson warns semiconductor profits are cyclical and that mega-cap tech faces structurally lower valuations; she prefers U.S. equities outside mega-cap tech.
• Momei Qu sees competition from China capping chip-stock valuations and highlights renewed interest in physical AI and robotics as a tangible adoption play.
• Mark Lehmann and Matt Bryson push back, arguing AI fears aren't showing in earnings and that semiconductors remain in a shortage with strong ROI.
• The Fed meets this week with a broad consensus to hold rates, but dissents are expected and a hike has a 30% chance priced in; lack of forward guidance fuels uncertainty.
• Oil prices ease as the U.S. and Iran engage in indirect talks via Oman, though the Strait of Hormuz remains mined and shipping still disrupted.
• Mega-cap tech earnings (Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, SK Hynix) will be crucial for gauging whether AI spending is still earning market confidence.
• Resilient consumer earnings and strong economy underpin the broader stock market even as tech-focused names suffer.