Bloomberg Surveillance 8/3/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  August 03, 2026 at 15:16  |  2:24:15  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Philip Orlando — Chief Equity Strategist, Federated Hermes
Mark Cabana — Co-Head of U.S. Short Rate Strategy, BofA Securities
Sarah Kunst — Cleo Capital Founder
Dominic Rizzo — Investment Professional, T. Rowe Price
Neil Dutta — Renaissance Macro (Quoted)
Michael Contopoulos — Director of Fixed Income, Richard Bernstein Advisors
Jeremy Stretch — Editor, Financial Times
Stephen Cook — Council on Foreign Relations
Sarah Hunt — Chief Market Strategist, Alpine Saxon Woods
Col. Wayne Sanders (Ret.) — Bloomberg Intelligence
Gary Cohn — Vice Chair, IBM / Former NEC Director
Nancy Lazar — Piper Sandler

Summary

The episode covers the first US-Japan coordinated yen intervention since 2011, driven by concerns over Treasury yields and Japanese capital flows. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's lack of forward guidance sparked a bond market selloff and inflation credibility shock, with multiple analysts calling for higher long-end yields and a September rate hike. Middle East tensions and shifting Iran strike-talk headlines added to oil volatility, while AI infrastructure spending continues to support semiconductor demand, with AMD highlighted as a preferred name, and SpaceX shares pressured by lockup and credibility concerns.

  • US and Japan jointly intervene to support the yen for the first time since 2011, aiming to stem rapid yen weakness and Treasury selling.
  • Fed Chair Warsh considering fewer policy meetings and offering no forward guidance, sparking long-end yield surge to levels not seen since 2007.
  • Multiple strategists describe an inflation credibility shock; BofA and RenMac expect the Fed to be forced into a September hike.
  • Oil prices swing wildly as President Trump alternates between threatening strikes on Iran and promoting new talks; Tehran denies negotiations.
  • AI semiconductor selloff seen as a buying opportunity by T. Rowe Price; AMD highlighted for CPU inferencing and accelerator strength.
  • SpaceX faces lockup expirations and CEO Elon Musk’s eroding credibility; Cleo Capital sees downside risk.
  • Upcoming July payrolls report (median 80k) seen as critical for determining whether the Fed can regain control.
Ideas
Philip Orlando Chief Equity Strategist, Federated Hermes 9:25
Buy long bonds at 4.80% yield.
The Fed suffered a textbook inflation credibility shock: nominal and real rate curves steepened, breakevens widened, dollar weakened, and equities fell. Unless the Fed regains control of the narrative and delivers a plan, long-end yields will continue to rise, pricing in more inflation risk premium.
IEF LOW
Philip Orlando Chief Equity Strategist, Federated Hermes 10:03
Equities to drop on higher yields.
Markets are too complacent on inflation. Underlying price pressures are broadening, the 10-year yield could go significantly higher, and lofty equity valuations make the stock market highly vulnerable to a sharp revaluation lower, especially long-duration equities.
SPY MED
Sarah Kunst Cleo Capital Founder 81:24
Short SpaceX on lockup and overvaluation.
SpaceX faces a major lockup expiration that could unleash selling pressure. Elon Musk’s pattern of overpromising and under-delivering is eroding credibility, and the company’s fundamentals do not justify a valuation north of a trillion dollars.
SPCX MED
Dominic Rizzo Investment Professional, T. Rowe Price 115:12
Stay long AI semiconductors, capex grows.
AI infrastructure and semiconductor spending will continue to accelerate. Hyperscaler capex is generating high ROIC (Morgan Stanley cites 30%), cloud revenue growth is re-accelerating (AWS 37%, Google Cloud 82%), and open-source models are unequivocally good for chip companies. The recent momentum unwind is over.
SMH MED
Dominic Rizzo Investment Professional, T. Rowe Price 119:35
Buy AMD on CPU inferencing upside.
AMD is his biggest bet because of its strong position in CPU inferencing, a much larger addressable market after raising the CPU TAM to $220 billion, and a very competitive accelerator product. The stock is down 18% in July, offering an attractive entry.
AMD MED
Up Next
4:20
Japanese Yen Surges After Washington Steps In
Bloomberg Markets · Aug 03
4:17
Bull Market Will Last Rest of Decade, Bartels Says
Bloomberg Markets · Aug 03
3:57
Market Open: Stocks Up, Iran Talks Resume, US Props Up Yen • 8/3/26
CNBC · Aug 03
4:21
Trump Says Iran Talks to Begin Monday
Bloomberg Markets · Aug 03
2:53
Iran Talks to Begin Monday, Trump Says
Bloomberg Markets · Aug 03

This Bloomberg Markets video, published August 03, 2026, features Philip Orlando, Sarah Kunst, Dominic Rizzo discussing IEF, SPY, SPCX, SMH, AMD. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Philip Orlando, Sarah Kunst, Dominic Rizzo  · Tickers: IEF, SPY, SPCX, SMH, AMD