Ariana Salvatore on Bloomberg Surveillance

Summary

Ariana Salvatore discusses the U.S. economic backdrop heading into the 2026 midterms, noting disinflation, resilient consumption, and a sideways labor market. She draws parallels to 2022 and highlights the Senate map, with a recent progressive primary win in Michigan complicating Democratic prospects. Prediction markets and approval ratings currently signal a more favorable environment for Democrats.

• Expects more disinflation through year-end, creating a benign macro backdrop.
• Consumer spending revised up to 2% despite weak sentiment not hitting intentions.
• Labor market remains sideways, contributing to a decent overall picture.
• Affordability is a top voter concern, but economic indicators not the only factor.
• The Michigan progressive primary win makes the Senate seat harder for Democrats to flip.
• Senate map in Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia seen as key to November outcome.
• Compares 2022 midterm dynamics, where structural map and social issues favored Democrats.