The Best Bear Case on AI | Animal Spirits 478

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  August 19, 2026 at 10:00  |  1:10:27  |  The Compound News
Speakers
Ben Carlson — Director of Institutional Asset Management, Ritholtz Wealth Management
Michael Batnick — Managing Partner, Ritholtz Wealth Management

Summary

Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson discuss the ongoing strength of the current bull market and the shifting narratives around AI investments and hyperscaler capital expenditures. They also touch on the rise of financial nihilism among young investors, the attractiveness of TIPS yields, and the absurdity of proposed NHL-themed ETFs.

  • The S&P 500 continues its historic bull market run with expanding profit margins and falling forward P/E ratios.
  • Young investors are increasingly turning to sports betting due to feelings of financial nihilism and housing market frustration.
  • Real yields of 3% on 20- and 30-year TIPS present a massive buying opportunity that the market is largely ignoring.
  • The massive AI capital expenditures by hyperscalers like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon raise concerns about future returns on investment.
  • Proposed ETFs tied to individual NHL franchises are criticized as gimmicky and unlikely to attract significant assets.
Ideas
Ben Carlson Director of Institutional Asset Management, Ritholtz Wealth Management 23:16
A 3% real yield makes TIPS attractive.
With inflation remaining sticky and government spending continuing, securing a 3% real yield on 20- or 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) represents a massive buying opportunity that the market is currently ignoring due to recent fixed income volatility.
TIP HIGH
Michael Batnick Managing Partner, Ritholtz Wealth Management 40:24
AI investment returns are too uncertain now.
The massive and unprecedented capital expenditures on AI by hyperscalers make it impossible to know if they will achieve a sufficient return on investment, placing the AI trade in the 'too hard pile' and warranting a neutral stance.
MSFT GOOG AMZN MED
Ben Carlson Director of Institutional Asset Management, Ritholtz Wealth Management 43:32
NHL ETFs will fail to attract assets.
Proposed ETFs tied to individual NHL franchises using CME futures contracts are unlikely to gain significant traction because wrapping sports betting into an ETF removes the emotional thrill that gamblers actually seek.
NHL ETFs MED
Michael Batnick Managing Partner, Ritholtz Wealth Management 48:33
SpaceX showed strong resilience during its unlock.
Despite negative sentiment and fears surrounding its share unlock, SpaceX successfully bounced from $100 to $150, demonstrating strong price action that provided a quick 20% trading gain.
SPCX MED
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This The Compound News video, published August 19, 2026, features Ben Carlson, Michael Batnick discussing TIP, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NHL ETFs, SPCX. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Ben Carlson, Michael Batnick  · Tickers: TIP, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NHL ETFs, SPCX