OS FUNDOS MULTIMERCADOS ESTÃO MORRENDO?

Summary

Rafael Medeiros defends a structural allocation to Brazilian multimercado funds without market timing, arguing they play a hunter role in portfolios. He draws a parallel with US macro hedge funds, which after a long slump and shakeout of weaker players saw strong rebounds post-2018 as top managers consolidated and upgraded processes. He expects the same consolidation to play out in Brazil, improving the overall quality of the industry.

• Multimercados are questioned after years of weak returns, similar to US macro hedge funds before 2016.
• Medeiros avoids timing the asset class and keeps a fixed allocation per family.
• US macro funds suffered from 2011-2018 but then delivered strong performance after weaker managers exited.
• Consolidation allowed survivors to gain market share and invest heavily in teams, technology, and risk management.
• Brazilian multimercado industry is likely to follow the same consolidation path.
• The structural role of multimercados is to hunt for opportunities that justify returns over the cycle.