NT NTN-B Loading... : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions

Brazilian long-dated local government bonds are pricing a large fiscal risk premium and are not repricing the Selic cutting cycle: NTN-Bs trade around 8-9% and nominal long bonds above 14-15%. Tony argues that without a credible fiscal trajectory this premium is unlikely to fall because the market is pricing a probability that fiscal imbalances are eventually resolved via inflation.

Brazil's fiscal situation remains untackled, with the government insisting on policies that worsen the imbalance. As a result, long-dated inflation-linked bonds (NTN-B) have seen yields rise above 8%, and without concrete fiscal adjustment, these yields will continue to climb or stay elevated, making the bonds unattractive.

The Brazilian government cancelled a bond auction of NTN-B (Tesouro IPCA+) on June 22 because it could not find buyers at desired yields, reflecting severe market distrust. Fiscal deficits are widening, public debt has reached 94% of GDP and R$12 trillion, interest payments exceed R$1 trillion in 12 months. Despite IPCA+ yields above 8.5%, investors are increasingly reluctant to buy long-term government paper, seeing it not as an opportunity but as a risk of default. The government’s fiscal deterioration is forcing it to rely on short-term floating-rate debt (LFT/Selic), worsening the debt profile. With no spending cuts, only tax increases and interventionism, the sovereign credit risk is rising and long-term inflation-linked bonds should be avoided.

The explosive growth of US government debt (from $5 trillion in 2000 to $40 trillion today) combined with unfavorable demographics will cause sustained real losses for long-duration sovereign bondholders. Since 2009, fixed income investors have lost substantial wealth as interest rates were kept artificially low and then adjusted upward. Even inflation-linked bonds like TIPS and NTN-B failed to preserve purchasing power because real yields rose. Given that governments cannot easily allow a deep recession without risking a debt crisis, they are trapped, and the trend of real wealth destruction in sovereign bonds is set to continue. Therefore, investors should avoid or drastically reduce exposure to US 10-year Treasuries, TIPS, and Brazilian NTN-B bonds to protect their portfolios.