ANDRÉ JAKURSKI EXPLICA O RISCO DA DÍVIDA AMERICANA

Summary

André Jakurski discusses the risks of explosive US public debt and demographic decline. He argues that supposedly safe long-duration sovereign bonds have already destroyed real wealth and will continue to do so. He advises investors to allocate portfolios to avoid being caught off-guard when the debt bomb eventually triggers a disruption.

• The world faces two unstoppable trends: explosive public debt and demographic slowdown.
• US federal debt multiplied 8x since 2000 while GDP grew only ~3x.
• Long-term US Treasury bonds have delivered deeply negative real returns since 2020 due to rising yields and inflation.
• Even inflation-linked bonds (TIPS and NTN-B) lost real value as real yields opened up.
• Governments are trapped: they cannot allow a deep recession because high debt makes it too dangerous.
• Jakurski expects creditors to be the big losers in a coming debt restructuring, though he cannot predict when.
• Portfolio allocation should seek relative capital preservation, not extreme defensive moves.