European assets face building risks: higher gas prices, a diesel supply crunch, and political risk in France, Germany and the UK. Europe's resilience cannot continue indefinitely, equities have a high bar and could disappoint on any fragility, while longer-dated European yields could rise if inflation becomes more dominant.
Paul expects the Fed to hike interest rates three times starting in December rather than September, reversing last year's unnecessary risk-management cuts. He argues underlying price pressures are building from supply shocks, tariffs, high energy costs, the AI shock, and a tight labor market, so policy needs to move to a more appropriate restrictive level.