Iran will likely impose a toll of approximately $1 per barrel on oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz after the 60-day negotiation window. This cost will be directly reflected in crude oil prices, translating to roughly 10 won per liter increase for refined products in Korea. Even so, many oil companies view paying the toll as preferable to a blockade, suggesting the added cost will be accommodated and passed through, supporting higher oil prices.
UAE's exit from OPEC+ is economically rational: they believe oil demand will peak by 2050 and oil will become worthless, so they aim to pump as much as possible now while oil is valuable. This will add significant supply (up to 1 million barrels/day from UAE alone) and weaken OPEC's ability to manage prices, creating downward pressure on crude oil prices.