Iran attacks Qatari merchant ship – Will the US launch another military attack? Hormuz crisis reignites! Iran's true intentions

Summary

Professor Park Hyun-do analyzes the Iran-U.S. nuclear negotiations, the power transition following the death of the supreme leader, and the Hormuz Strait crisis. He argues that younger hardliners now set policy, Iran will not concede easily, and the U.S. is trying to exit the Middle East to focus on China. The main market implication is that Iran is likely to impose a toll on Hormuz passage after the 60-day grace period, adding upward pressure to crude oil prices.

• The new Iranian leadership under Mojtaba Khamenei is younger, more hardline, and controls policy through invisible Revolutionary Guard figures.
• Iran will not feel urgency to conclude a nuclear deal in 60 days; time favors Iran and pressures the U.S. ahead of midterm elections.
• Iran is enforcing a routing control over the Strait of Hormuz even during the 60-day truce, attacking ships that deviate from designated paths.
• After the 60-day period, Iran intends to charge a toll on oil tankers, expected to be around $1 per barrel, which will raise global oil prices.
• Neighboring Gulf states are deeply dissatisfied because they are expected to fund $300 billion in Iranian reconstruction while their trust is shattered.
• The U.S. strategic goal is to pivot away from the Middle East toward containing China, reducing its direct military entanglements in the region.
• A resumption of full-scale U.S. military action against Iran is possible but considered difficult given domestic opposition and costs.