Calls
84
#1036
Alpha Score 0.5
Outlier Capital
Substack author, Outlier Capital
Win Rate
19.1%
return
-19.5%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Apr 26
$25.53
-49.4%
LUNR is a positive position in the portfolio.
Space
Long
Apr 21
$34.20
-8.4%
The author believes Sivers is a credible small-cap AI optics play with real technology, ecosystem relevance, and early product traction, and that the risk/reward remains attractive despite financial i
The author believes Sivers is a credible small-cap AI optics play with real technology, ecosystem relevance, and early product traction, and that the risk/reward remains attractive despite financial immaturity, with catalysts like a potential US listing.
AI Photonics
Long
Apr 26
$21.86
-34.9%
USAR is a profitable holding, contributing to overall portfolio gains.
Critical Minerals
Long
Apr 20
$14.40
-57.8%
Lightwave Logic's electro-optic polymer modulators deliver superior power efficiency and speed, already in PDKs with GlobalFoundries and Tower Semiconductor, making them plug-and-play for NVIDIA's CPO
Lightwave Logic's electro-optic polymer modulators deliver superior power efficiency and speed, already in PDKs with GlobalFoundries and Tower Semiconductor, making them plug-and-play for NVIDIA's CPO partners with highly asymmetric upside.
AI Photonics
Long
May 07
$19.27
-29.9%
The author is long FLNC because hyperscaler deals de-risk the growth narrative, the backlog is massive and already covers FY2026 guidance, and the stock is cheap at 0.9x forward sales with a path to p
The author is long FLNC because hyperscaler deals de-risk the growth narrative, the backlog is massive and already covers FY2026 guidance, and the stock is cheap at 0.9x forward sales with a path to profitability and potential multi-bagger returns from AI data center demand.
Batteries & Storage
Long
Apr 26
$30.56
-8.1%
HIMS is the biggest laggard but still held; the author maintains conviction in the underlying thesis.
HIMS is the biggest laggard but still held; the author maintains conviction in the underlying thesis.
GLP-1 / Obesity
Long
Apr 26
$11.96
-32.4%
SMR is down but remains in the portfolio; no change in thesis mentioned.
Grid Equipment
Long
Jun 07
$53.77
-57.4%
Author opened a long position in WOLF as part of Main 10x Portfolio, indicating a new high-conviction bet.
Author opened a long position in WOLF as part of Main 10x Portfolio, indicating a new high-conviction bet.
Power Semis
Long
May 13
$28.48
+19.4%
Author believes Ouster is transitioning from a lidar hardware company to a foundational perception platform for Physical AI, with real revenue growth, diversification across industrial automation, rob
Author believes Ouster is transitioning from a lidar hardware company to a foundational perception platform for Physical AI, with real revenue growth, diversification across industrial automation, robotics, and smart infrastructure, and a credible 10x potential if it becomes a standard perception layer for machines operating in the physical world.
AI Photonics
Long
Apr 25
$49.40
-1.1%
The author believes IQE is undervalued by the market due to its strategic position as a materials enabler for AI photonics, despite weak near-term financials. The sell-off presents an opportunity as t
The author believes IQE is undervalued by the market due to its strategic position as a materials enabler for AI photonics, despite weak near-term financials. The sell-off presents an opportunity as the company has real ecosystem credibility, multiple partnerships (Quintessent, Lumentum), and strategic review optionality that could unlock value.
AI Photonics
Long
Apr 23
$50.30
-39.0%
American Superconductor sits at the intersection of grid modernization (advanced conductors, power electronics) and defense (naval ship protection), with the DPA memo explicitly targeting its product
American Superconductor sits at the intersection of grid modernization (advanced conductors, power electronics) and defense (naval ship protection), with the DPA memo explicitly targeting its product categories.
Grid Equipment
Long
Apr 20
$8.62
-20.1%
POET is the optical interposer leader integrating lasers, modulators, and electronics on a single chip, with a Foxconn partnership and 2026 shipment ramp, positioning it perfectly for scalable, low-co
POET is the optical interposer leader integrating lasers, modulators, and electronics on a single chip, with a Foxconn partnership and 2026 shipment ramp, positioning it perfectly for scalable, low-cost CPO engines.
AI Photonics
Long
May 24
$24.02
-9.0%
Author initiated a new long position in BRUN as part of a conviction-driven basket targeting asymmetric upside with fundamental downside protection.
Author initiated a new long position in BRUN as part of a conviction-driven basket targeting asymmetric upside with fundamental downside protection.
NeoCloud
Long
Apr 26
$14.62
-2.8%
HPS was added as a new position, funded by closing CIFR, with a focus on defense/grid opportunities.
HPS was added as a new position, funded by closing CIFR, with a focus on defense/grid opportunities.
Bonds & Rates
Long
May 31
$15.11
-25.5%
Author opened a new long position in HLIT as part of the Main 10x Portfolio, seeking asymmetric upside with downside protected by fundamentals.
Author opened a new long position in HLIT as part of the Main 10x Portfolio, seeking asymmetric upside with downside protected by fundamentals.
AI Photonics
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Outlier Capital has 84 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 84 tickers since April 2026. Win rate 19% across 84 evaluated calls, average return -19.5%. Ranked #1036 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: SIVE, LUNR, USAR.
