Outlier Capital
· Outlier Capital
· May 07, 2026 at 19:09
· ⏱ 3 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
Outlier Capital is long Fluence Energy ($FLNC) after its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report, citing a record $5.6B backlog, doubled year-to-date order intake, and master supply agreements with two hyperscalers that de-risk the AI-energy trade. The author argues FLNC is undervalued at ~0.9x forward sales with a clear path to profitability, and sees massive upside from AI data center demand for grid-scale batteries.
•FLNC reported a record $5.6B backlog and YTD order intake doubling to $2B.
•Two hyperscaler master supply agreements were signed; first firm order expected as soon as Q3 FY2026.
•Grid-scale battery storage is positioned as the critical solution for AI data center power needs.
•Fluence's IQ software platform drives margin expansion and is a key differentiator.
•Stock trades at ~0.9x forward sales with guidance of $3.2–3.6B revenue; path to positive EBITDA in FY2026.
•Bull case sees 4–6x upside over 2–3 years, with downside limited by backlog visibility.
The author is long FLNC because hyperscaler deals de-risk the growth narrative, the backlog is massive and already covers FY2026 guidance, and the stock is cheap at 0.9x forward sales with a path to p
The author is long FLNC because hyperscaler deals de-risk the growth narrative, the backlog is massive and already covers FY2026 guidance, and the stock is cheap at 0.9x forward sales with a path to profitability and potential multi-bagger returns from AI data center demand.