Calls
20
#27
Alpha Score 97.7
firstadopter
Author, Key Context
Win Rate
85.0%
return
+23.4%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Jan 05
$190.17
+17.7%
Buy NVDA because the NVL72 AI server supercycle is evident in Foxconn's accelerating monthly revenue and AI rack-server momentum into Q1.
AI Compute
Short
Aug 05
$363.06
+2.3%
Short GOOGL on secular cultural and talent deterioration thesis; Jeff Dean's departure — the architect of Google's AI, TPUs, and search infrastructure — signals structural decay at the company's technical core.
Hyperscalers
Long
Jan 23
$467.69
+6.8%
Buy Microsoft as an underestimated AI beneficiary; UBS channel checks confirm Fairwater Wisconsin data center (Phase 1 ~1 GW by end-2026) and Atlanta (200 MW by end-2025) are ramping faster than consensus expects, supporting material AI infrastructure upside.
Hyperscalers
Long
Jan 15
$349.00
+20.6%
Buy TSM as TSMC's Q4 beat on revenue ($33.73B vs $33.3B est), gross margin (62.3% vs 60.5% est), and Q1 guidance ($34.6-35.8B vs $33.2B est) confirm sustained AI compute demand; FY26 capex raised to $52-56B (vs $48B est) signals supply-constrained demand through 2028-2029.
Foundry Equipment
Long
Feb 12
$362.00
+49.7%
Buy AMAT; the stock is dipping despite a strong earnings beat and raised guidance, which the speaker views as an unwarranted sell-off in a high-quality semiconductor equipment name.
Foundry Equipment
Long
Feb 10
$1433.59
+21.6%
Buy ASML as a preferred semiconductor equipment name over memory, which the author views as exposed to disruption risk; ASML cited as a top pick in response to a best-ideas prompt.
Foundry Equipment
Short
Feb 02
$77405.20
+15.9%
Short Bitcoin as Kevin Warsh signals aggressive balance sheet reduction (QE→QT), removing the excess liquidity that has historically inflated speculative assets; a smaller Fed balance sheet drains the risk-appetite fuel underpinning crypto.
Crypto Assets
Long
Jan 23
$45.07
+125.6%
Buy Intel as Q1 2026 represents the trough of supply/manufacturing challenges; the author argues supply improves sequentially each quarter from here, making current weakness a buying opportunity.
Foundry Equipment
Long
Feb 12
$150.67
-0.9%
Buy CHRW; the AI-disruption bear narrative is misplaced — the company is actually a first-mover beneficiary of AI adoption in freight brokerage, making the recent selloff on disruption fears an overreaction.
Freight & Logistics
Long
Feb 10
$341.92
+24.7%
Long Broadcom: chip demand is red-hot, and Broadcom should keep benefiting from the same semiconductor strength that is driving the author’
Long Broadcom: chip demand is red-hot, and Broadcom should keep benefiting from the same semiconductor strength that is driving the author’
AI ASIC
Long
Feb 10
$210.25
+17.0%
Buy TTWO as the sell-off triggered by Google Project Genie / AI world-model fears is technically misguided; world models cannot replace game engines in gameplay mechanics, monetization, or distribution, making the dip an overreaction.
Gaming & Entertainment
Long
Feb 09
$141.76
+76.3%
Buy CRDO after the AI-driven selloff proved premature; the company pre-announced Q3 FY2026 revenue of $404-408M, roughly 20% above the top of prior guidance of $345M, signaling strong demand momentum that the bears missed.
AI Photonics
Long
Feb 06
$283.52
+18.8%
Buy Cadence as Jensen Huang's endorsed logic holds that AI will use specialized EDA tools rather than reinvent them, and the current software sector selloff driven by AI-replacement fears is irrational.
AI ASIC
Long
Feb 06
$100.74
+23.8%
Buy ServiceNow as the AI-will-replace-software narrative is logically flawed; AGI will use existing enterprise tools rather than reinvent them, making the current valuation pressure on software names an overreaction.
AI Software
Long
Feb 06
$203.34
+0.9%
Buy SAP as the market's AI-displacement fear is misplaced; enterprise software incumbents are the tools AGI will leverage, not replace, making current stock pressure a buying opportunity.
AI Software
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firstadopter has 20 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 19 tickers since January 2026. Win rate 85% across 20 evaluated calls, average return +23.4%. Ranked #27 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: NVDA, GOOGL, MSFT.
