Chris Whalen

Buy silver alongside gold as author explicitly recommends the long gold/silver trade, citing an asymmetric investment case and a bearish dollar backdrop.

Buy gold as author explicitly endorses long precious metals thesis, citing asymmetric return profile in gold/silver investments and implying dollar weakness as the structural driver.

Whalen states the market is moving from "speculation" to "preservation" and "cash flow." He explicitly names Annaly (NLY) as a holding for income and praises Walmart (WMT) for its defensive stability. As high-beta tech and crypto trades unwind ("run out of runway"), capital will rotate into defensive sectors (Consumer Staples) and high-yield instruments (Mortgage REITs) that provide security and income. LONG (Defensive Rotation). Rising long-term interest rates could hurt NLY's book value; consumer spending slowdown could impact WMT.

"Crypto is suffering because the AI narrative has broken down... I think it could go lower because the market for Bitcoin is so weak." Whalen links Crypto and AI as "aspirational" narratives driven by liquidity rather than fundamentals. As the AI hype cycle breaks, the bid for Crypto evaporates. The market lacks depth ("thin"), meaning selling pressure causes outsized drops. Sell/Short on narrative collapse and liquidity drying up. A resurgence in speculative liquidity or central bank intervention boosting risk assets.

Whalen states "The Wharf Rats Are Coming Out." He notes Blue Owl (OWL) sold loans at 99.7% of value and restricted redemptions. He explicitly mentions Apollo (APO), Aries (ARES), KKR, and TPG "took lumps" and that the sector is facing liquidity problems. Whalen argues that private markets are inferior to public markets due to lack of price discovery and liquidity. He predicts a "ticking time bomb" where retail investors will lose money and regulators (insurance commissioners) will eventually have to crack down on the "fox in the hen house" dynamic where PE firms own insurers. SHORT or AVOID these asset managers as liquidity crunches and regulatory scrutiny increase. Regulators remain passive (as Whalen notes Paul Atkins/SEC are ignoring it); these firms successfully offload bad assets to annuity holders without consequence.

While noting the broader AI trade is cooling, Whalen explicitly states, "I own AMD... it has traded off a lot. I'm probably going to buy more now at these levels." He differentiates between the "froth" of the general sector and specific high-quality assets that have become oversold. He views the pullback in AMD as an entry point rather than a signal to exit. LONG (Buy the Dip). Further multiple compression in the semiconductor sector; slowing enterprise AI spend.

His portfolio is defensive and focused on income-generating assets. He mentions Annaly and AGNC as examples of mortgage REITs that are good for income, not for price appreciation (alpha).

Short UWMC — mortgage analyst argues balance sheet stress is visible when netting secured financing/assets and MSR against corporate debt, with a public attack on the CEO adding reputational pressure to an already strained capital structure.

Whalen states "The Wharf Rats Are Coming Out." He notes Blue Owl (OWL) sold loans at 99.7% of value and restricted redemptions. He explicitly mentions Apollo (APO), Aries (ARES), KKR, and TPG "took lumps" and that the sector is facing liquidity problems. Whalen argues that private markets are inferior to public markets due to lack of price discovery and liquidity. He predicts a "ticking time bomb" where retail investors will lose money and regulators (insurance commissioners) will eventually have to crack down on the "fox in the hen house" dynamic where PE firms own insurers. SHORT or AVOID these asset managers as liquidity crunches and regulatory scrutiny increase. Regulators remain passive (as Whalen notes Paul Atkins/SEC are ignoring it); these firms successfully offload bad assets to annuity holders without consequence.

Buy PFSI on post-earnings weakness; BTIG reiterates $150 price target, viewing the after-hours selloff on the earnings miss as an overreaction and an attractive entry point.

Whalen states "The Wharf Rats Are Coming Out." He notes Blue Owl (OWL) sold loans at 99.7% of value and restricted redemptions. He explicitly mentions Apollo (APO), Aries (ARES), KKR, and TPG "took lumps" and that the sector is facing liquidity problems. Whalen argues that private markets are inferior to public markets due to lack of price discovery and liquidity. He predicts a "ticking time bomb" where retail investors will lose money and regulators (insurance commissioners) will eventually have to crack down on the "fox in the hen house" dynamic where PE firms own insurers. SHORT or AVOID these asset managers as liquidity crunches and regulatory scrutiny increase. Regulators remain passive (as Whalen notes Paul Atkins/SEC are ignoring it); these firms successfully offload bad assets to annuity holders without consequence.

Whalen highlights a speech by Fed Governor Mickey Bowman suggesting a rollback of punitive Basel III capital rules regarding mortgage servicing assets. If these rules are relaxed, the cost of holding mortgage assets decreases. Whalen explicitly states the "big beneficiaries... are going to be community banks and regional banks" (KRE). He also notes that non-banks like Rocket (RKT) and PennyMac (PFSI) remain operationally superior and efficient in this space. LONG Regional Banks and efficient Non-Bank Mortgage Servicers. The rule change is only a proposal and may not be enacted; the housing market freezes further if rates rise.

Buy Flagstar ($FLG) as the bank returns to profitability after deliberately reducing multifamily and CRE exposure — a de-risking catalyst the author anticipated and currently holds a position in.

US oil stocks are at their lowest in 20 years, the Iran war has destroyed any incentive for peace and will force Gulf states to build pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz; refineries will not be repaired while shooting continues, causing permanent structural supply damage. Diesel is up 30% YTD and ripples through every part of the economy, demand remains strong, Asia refiners prioritize domestic needs, and California faces potential rationing. Oil and refined product prices will go higher into the fall.

Long Two Harbors (TWO) — author asserts the $12/share acquisition offer from UWMC materially undervalues the stock, implying significant upside to fair value and potential for a higher bid or standalone re-rating.