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18:00
Aug 28
Aug 28
MNDY 1ST
SPY FLIP
MU
AVGO
GOOGL
▾
HIGH
Monday.com may spike then retest 70-80.
Monday.com has not finished its move. Solodin thinks it may spike higher soon, then come back to test the prior breakout or 70-80 zone before continuing.
MNDY LONG
Reduce S&P 500 exposure; risks are elevated.
Solodin is reducing his model portfolio from roughly 140% to about 50% exposure because the S&P 500 is showing a divergence with AA corporate bond yields, record Finra margin debt, hedge funds cutting gross leverage, rising big-tech credit default swaps, and fragile dealer gamma. He sees resistance at 7750-7800 and support at 7500 and expects a possible correction rather than chasing.
SPY AVOID
Micron memory boom is a bubble.
Micron's revenue tripled as memory prices soared, but maintaining that pace would require about $180bn a year, which he says no economy can support. When the AI capex cycle ends and overproduction hits, memory prices and Micron shares should crash cyclically, so he warns not to enter.
MU AVOID
Big Tech credit stress is rising.
Five-year credit default swaps on major Big Tech names Nvidia, Broadcom, Alphabet, and Amazon are rising sharply even as stock prices rally, signaling institutional investors see growing default and hidden-debt risk. Solodin reads this as a dollar-vote warning about big-tech balance sheets and off-balance-sheet obligations.
AVGO AVOID
GOOGL AVOID
AMZN AVOID
Big Tech credit stress is rising.
Nvidia's report was excellent and margins are at a peak near 63% net margin, but revenue jumped from about $165bn to $302bn. Maintaining this pace would require roughly $600bn next year, which he says is impossible without breaking hyperscalers. Once growth decelerates or capex ends, the stock will likely correct hard despite strong fundamentals.
NVDA AVOID
Semiconductors negative; stay cautious now.
Asked about SOXX, Solodin sees the semiconductor ETF in a fourth-wave distribution or consolidation, with credit-default swaps rising and near-term negative dynamics. He advises watching the breakdown line rather than entering aggressively, as a deeper correction may follow.
SOXX AVOID
Salesforce reload zone near 190-200.
Solodin took profit in Salesforce after the gap near 242-243 and now expects a retest around 200. His plan is to reload near 200-190 for the next leg higher.
CRM LONG
Zeta weaker than Trade Desk; avoid.
Zeta Global appears weaker than Trade Desk: large dilution, weak profitability near losses, and a high valuation. Solodin exited Zeta in favor of TTD within the same sector.
ZETA AVOID
Meta obligations and buybacks are weakening.
Meta is aggressively building AI infrastructure through off-balance-sheet obligations and leases, while buybacks have collapsed from 135% of free cash flow to much lower levels and EPS shows deceleration or negative quarters. Solodin sees these as warning signs for profitability and stock risk.
META AVOID
Microsoft head-and-shoulders risk if high fails.
Microsoft fundamentals are strong and it is more balanced than Amazon or Meta, but the chart shows a potential head-and-shoulders setup below the 560 high. Solodin is watching whether price fails and later tests the neckline area as a warning rather than treating it as an active short.
MSFT WATCH
Trade Desk undervalued versus Zeta, target 50.
Solodin chose Trade Desk over Zeta because TTD is more stable, has better margins, no dilution, and buybacks, and carries a lower valuation. He expects an initial move toward 20-22 and a medium-term target near 50 by mid-2027 from around 13.
TTD LONG
Credo expensive; hard correction likely soon.
Credo Technology has strong revenue growth and improving profitability, but valuation is very high around 86 EV/EBITDA with significant stock-based compensation. Solodin expects a hard correction soon because it is expensive and the wave cycle is mature.
CRDO AVOID
Palantir price extreme; correction to 75-80.
Palantir's business is fine, but valuation is extremely high at about 69x earnings. Solodin says from such prices it can easily correct from 180 toward 75-80 and he would not enter now.
PLTR AVOID
Adobe has upside to 350 then 500.
Adobe bounced strongly from his average around 235 and he thinks it is not done. His nearest target is 350, with a longer-term measured move toward 450-500, and a pullback toward 250 may offer another entry after the resistance break.
ADBE LONG
HIGH
17:43
Aug 21
Aug 21
Dmitry Solodin
14d
GLD
BTC FLIP
TLT FLIP
META
GOOGL
▾
HIGH
Exponential US debt growth supports gold prices.
Gold is rising in correlation with the exponential growth of the US national debt. As the debt continues to grow and put pressure on the financial system, gold will be supported. The speaker holds a long position via a collar strategy and recommends buying on dips.
GLD LONG
Falling hash rates pressure Bitcoin prices downward.
Bitcoin's hash rate is dropping as miners switch to more profitable AI data processing, which lowers the cost of production and creates selling pressure when the price exceeds this cost. The recent price spike was a short squeeze triggered by Treasury announcements, not a fundamental shift. The asset lacks intrinsic value and is highly manipulative.
BTC AVOID
Massive AI capital needs drive yields higher.
Yields on long-term bonds are rising due to massive capital demands from AI companies and a huge US budget deficit. This creates a structural shortage of liquidity in the debt market, pushing yields up and bond prices down. The speaker exited TLT long ago and expects yields to remain high.
TLT AVOID
Hidden AI infrastructure debts destroy free cashflow.
AI companies are accumulating massive off-balance-sheet debt, such as Meta's $1.2 trillion in lease obligations for compute power. Free cash flow is disappearing as they transition from capital-light compounders to capital-intensive utility-like companies. The speaker avoids investing in them due to these hidden risks and massive future amortization costs.
META AVOID
GOOGL AVOID
AMZN AVOID
ORCL AVOID
Low valuation and buybacks support higher prices.
PayPal's intrinsic value is around $80-$90, making the rejection of a $60 buyout offer logical. The valuation is very low (EV/EBITDA 7.49) with high buybacks (9%), although revenue growth is slow. It is a decent company with upside potential.
PYPL LONG
RTS index shows medium-term technical buying opportunities.
The RTS index is ending a large triangle pattern that began in 2008. Current momentum levels suggest it is at a good medium-term entry point for picking up positions on dips, despite ongoing geopolitical risks.
MOEX:RTSI LONG
Buy the dip during current market distribution.
The S&P 500 is in a distribution phase (wave 4), meaning growth might stall and transition into volatility, but a deep correction is unlikely (max 10-15%). 'Buy the dip' will likely work. The speaker maintains a moderate long position and plans to add if the price drops, as there are no signs of a bear market yet.
SPY LONG
Strong fundamentals and buybacks make CRM attractive.
CRM has strong fundamentals with accelerating EPS, large buybacks (9% yield), and a low EV/EBITDA valuation (around 15). It is preferred over NOW, and technically, it is expected to complete a wave 5 upward movement.
CRM LONG
Cyclical peak and high valuation warrant caution.
Micron is very expensive for a cyclical company (P/S 12). Memory prices won't stay high forever, and the capex cycle will eventually end, dropping demand. The stock is currently in a distribution phase, expecting a wave 4 correction.
MU AVOID
High valuation and decelerating EPS reduce appeal.
NOW looks worse fundamentally than CRM, with a high EV/EBITDA valuation and EPS deceleration. While technically it shows a flat correction, the fundamentals do not justify holding it over better alternatives like CRM.
NOW AVOID
High valuation requires consolidation before further upside.
Apple is currently in a wave 4 correction. While revenue growth is strong, EPS growth will likely decelerate due to the high base effect. The stock is slightly expensive, so it needs a period of consolidation (triangle pattern) to let intrinsic value catch up with the price before further upside.
AAPL WATCH
HIGH
16:04
Aug 07
Aug 07
Dmitry Solodin
28d
INCY 1ST
ADBE
NVO 1ST
CRM
TTD FLIP
▾
HIGH
Incyte cup-and-handle breakout
Incyte (INCY) is forming a cup-and-handle pattern with accelerating fundamentals, and he expects a breakout to new highs.
INCY LONG
Adobe mean reversion to 450
Adobe (ADBE) has sold off sharply, and he expects a mean reversion recovery back to its moving average near $450.
ADBE LONG
Novo Nordisk cheap mean reversion
Novo Nordisk (NVO) has become attractively cheap after a decline, with strong fundamentals. He holds for a mean reversion target of $80.
NVO LONG
CRM mean reversion to 230-240
Salesforce (CRM) is preferred over ServiceNow due to lower valuation and better momentum metrics. He expects a mean reversion rally back to the moving average around 230-240.
CRM LONG
Avoid Trade Desk falling knife
Trade Desk (TTD) has lost fundamental momentum; guidance disappointed, growth is decelerating, and the stock is a falling knife. He advises against adding and waits for a confirmed reversal.
TTD AVOID
Palantir overvalued, await consolidation
Palantir (PLTR) has an extreme valuation (PS 63, EV 144) despite excellent fundamentals. He expects a prolonged consolidation or correction before any sustained uptrend resumes.
PLTR AVOID
Doximity weak momentum, avoid
Doximity (DOCS) spiked on AI hype but fundamentals are weakening with negative revenue and EPS acceleration. He exited the position and would not buy back given the poor momentum.
DOCS AVOID
Watch PayPal for breakout to 80
PayPal (PYPL) is approaching a key resistance level. A breakout could trigger a short squeeze sending the price toward $80 quickly, but the setup is not yet confirmed.
PYPL WATCH
SPY with protective puts strategy
A disciplined strategy of holding SPY long while using rolling protective puts limits downside to 1-2% per drawdown, producing a high Sharpe ratio and smooth equity curve.
SPY LONG
HIGH
19:59
Jul 25
Jul 25
Dmitry Solodin
1mo
BTC FLIP
BNO FLIP
GLD
SILVER
FCX
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin near cyclical bottom, consider buying
Hashrate peaks historically coincide with Bitcoin price bottoms. Current hashrate decline, miner daily revenue at lower end of yearly range, and price below estimated production cost (~$76k) suggest a cyclical bottom may be near. Miner migration to AI infrastructure indirectly confirms mining unprofitability, creating a potential buying opportunity.
BTC LONG
Oil market extremely tight, spike risk
The oil market is in its tightest environment in 30 years: record high 3-2-1 crack spreads signal a shortage of refining capacity. Russian refining outages, logistics chokepoints, low inventories, and the risk of a second strait closure create extreme vulnerability. Crude could spike to $200/bbl if conditions persist or worsen.
BNO LONG
Buy gold on fourth wave dip
Gold will continue to rise driven by the liquidity cycle. Currently in a large wave 4 correction with support around 3400, offering a buying opportunity near the lower end of the expected range. Speaker holds a collar position and plans to take profit on a move toward 5600/5300, expecting an eventual fifth wave rally.
GLD LONG
Silver near lower range, buy opportunity
Silver is in a similar fourth wave correction as gold, with maximum drawdown limited to about 40%. Price is already near the lower end of that range, presenting a favorable risk/reward for a long position within an overall uptrend.
SILVER LONG
FCX breakout, copper deficit drives upside
Copper is near highs and the speaker is long FCX as a proxy. After a long accumulation phase, FCX broke out and can reach 140. Fundamentally, copper is in a structural deficit driven by massive data-center capex, and the chart shows no sign of a V-top reversal yet, supporting further upside.
FCX LONG
Gazprom can be bought, monopoly resilience
Gazprom is a state monopoly that will survive and can be bought now. It could benefit from a potential resumption of gas transit to Europe, an eventual deal on Power of Siberia 2, and its dominant position in Russia’s huge internal market. The stock is too big to ignore in a narrow Russian blue-chip universe.
GAZP.ME LONG
Tencent cheap with revenue acceleration, buy
Tencent (0700.HK) was bought around 440-445 with a target of 700. Fundamentals are strong: revenue acceleration, 6.5% earnings yield (almost double that of the S&P 500), wide moat, and impressive ability to grow revenue despite deflationary pressure in China. Valuation metrics like EV/EBITDA look cheap relative to global peers.
0700.HK LONG
First Solar cup-handle breakout, own it
First Solar (FSLR) shows a large cup-and-handle formation. The company manufactures solar panels in the US independent of Chinese supply. Fundamentals are very strong: 75/100 composite score, 4/5 stars, revenue acceleration, and a 7.6% earnings yield, roughly twice as cheap as the S&P 500. Speaker awaits the breakout.
FSLR LONG
S&P 500 super-cycle target 15k–16k
Near term, S&P 500 is expected to correct into August-September, possibly down to 7,000, before resuming the uptrend. The speaker plans to aggressively buy dips using stock-picking and an options hedging strategy (protective puts rolled higher if the market falls further), expecting the buy-the-dip approach to work well in this phase of the cycle.
SPY LONG
Avoid hyperscalers, debt cycle will bite
Hyperscalers (Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Oracle, Nvidia) are entering a phase where cumulative capex will exceed cumulative operating cash flow, forcing them to take on significant debt. This growing leverage, hidden through off-balance-sheet structures, is likely to worsen free cash flow and pressure valuations. The speaker prefers to stay away despite the strong business momentum.
AMZN AVOID
MSFT AVOID
GOOGL AVOID
META AVOID
ORCL AVOID
NVDA AVOID
Watch China triangle for entry zone
The HSCEI is trading inside a large triangle pattern. The speaker is waiting for a move into a lower support zone to enter, expecting a high-probability bounce within the consolidation. A breakout above or below the triangle boundaries has not yet occurred, making this a developing setup worth monitoring.
HSCEI WATCH
MOEX triangle bounce, full rally needs peace
The MOEX Russia index just bounced sharply, potentially forming a triangle pattern as a fourth wave. A move to 2700-2800 is possible, followed by further consolidation swings. However, the real fifth-wave rally is unlikely until the military conflict ends, because domestic liquidity is diverted to finance the budget deficit.
MOEX Index WATCH
Ruble to weaken, buy dollars
The ruble is in a long-term devaluation trend against the dollar, driven by much faster M2 growth in Russia than in the US. The wave structure suggests a triangle correction, with a potential D-wave push toward 110-116 USD/RUB. Despite the lower yield on dollars, holding USD offers better safety against a sharp ruble drop of 30-40% over the next year.
USD/RUB LONG
TLT may rally, use options for safety
TLT could recover if inflation expectations moderate and yields decline, given that the long end is anchored to the 3.5% fed funds rate. The 5% yield on 20-year bonds already embeds a 1.5% spread that historically is unlikely to widen dramatically. The speaker may open a position using options to limit risk.
TLT LONG
HIGH
18:12
Jul 17
Jul 17
Dmitry Solodin
1mo
SPY
AMZN
GOOG
MSFT FLIP
META
▾
HIGH
S&P 500 earnings growth is an accounting illusion.
The S&P 500's expected 27% earnings growth is an accounting illusion. Hyperscalers are capitalizing massive AI infrastructure costs and hiding debt in SPVs, while semiconductor suppliers recognize immediate revenue. When the AI capex cycle slows, hyperscalers will face massive depreciation costs, dragging down index earnings and causing a severe correction in overvalued AI and semiconductor stocks.
SPY WATCH
AMZN AVOID
GOOG AVOID
MSFT AVOID
META AVOID
NVDA AVOID
AVGO AVOID
AMD AVOID
MU AVOID
Marvel AVOID
Russian market won't grow until war ends.
The Russian stock market lacks the liquidity to grow because the massive budget deficit is being financed by high-yielding government bonds (OFZ), which absorb all available capital. The market will only see significant growth when the war ends and liquidity returns to equities.
MOEX Index WATCH
German automakers lost China and are value traps.
German automakers have totally lost the crucial Chinese market to local EV competitors due to pricing and competitiveness. They are closing factories, facing falling EBITDA, and generating negative free cash flow. They are classic value traps and should be avoided.
VOLKSWAGEN AVOID
BMW AVOID
MBG AVOID
Reached 2008 support levels, potential technical bounce.
Gazprom has reached its historical 2008 support levels and is forming a potential diagonal pattern. It could bounce from this strong support zone, although current fundamental data is lacking.
GAZP.ME WATCH
Stable dividend stock forming a technical triangle.
PepsiCo is forming a 4th wave technical triangle. It is a slow but very stable business with a solid 4.2% dividend yield and growing free cash flow, making it a good entry point for dividend investors.
PEP LONG
Falling knife with unstable cash flow.
EPAM is a falling knife with unstable free cash flow and slowing EPS. It is fundamentally weaker than its peers and should be avoided until a clear reversal pattern emerges.
EPAM AVOID
Expensive cloud stock vulnerable to overproduction crisis.
DigitalOcean has become expensive again at a P/E of 13. As a cloud provider, it is vulnerable to a potential overproduction crisis in cloud computing, making it too risky to buy right now.
DOCN AVOID
Monstrously overvalued and a classic value trap.
Despite strong business fundamentals, Palantir is monstrously overvalued at 59 times sales. It is a classic value trap that could suffer a massive correction and stagnate for years.
PLTR AVOID
Reasonably valued tech stock with growing revenue.
Adobe has a much more reasonable valuation (P/S 4, P/E 13) compared to hyped AI stocks. Revenue continues to grow, and even if the stock falls further, it will quickly recover to its fair value line.
ADBE LONG
Stable value play with reasonable valuation.
Unlike overvalued tech stocks, Accenture is a stable value play with a reasonable valuation (P/S 1.2), growing free cash flow, and solid revenue. It offers downside protection and will recover quickly from market corrections.
ACN LONG
Elite company with strong growth and cash flow.
Netflix is an elite company with strong revenue and EPS growth, accelerating free cash flow, and no hyperscaler capex issues. The valuation is adequate, making it a strong buy, especially when using options to limit downside risk.
NFLX LONG
Park cash in short-term bonds for positive real yield.
Real yields on US debt are currently positive. Short-term bonds (2-year or less) are a safe place to park cash to avoid inflation erosion while waiting for equity market corrections.
SHY LONG
Forming a bullish cup and handle pattern.
First Solar is forming a large, long-term bullish 'cup and handle' pattern. While currently experiencing a pullback, the long-term potential is high. It is safer to enter when it breaks resistance, but the overall setup is very positive.
FSLR LONG
Gold has massive upside but requires options protection.
Gold could potentially rise to $30,000 per ounce due to structural changes and Chinese policies. However, due to its high volatility, it should be traded using options to protect against downside risk.
GLD LONG
SILVER LONG
HIGH
19:50
Jul 03
Jul 03
Dmitry Solodin
2mo
TНEN
HSI
KLAR 1ST
PLTR FLIP
Chinese banks (ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank)
▾
HIGH
Long Tencent for China financial center play
Tencent is one of the best combined plays on China’s financialization, bought directly on the Hong Kong exchange in Hong Kong dollars to avoid yuan devaluation risk; the company is strong and well-positioned as capital accumulation turns into financial market development.
TНEN LONG
Long Hang Seng Index for China exposure
A local Hong Kong index fund was purchased as a broad way to participate in the re-rating of the Hong Kong market, which benefits from China’s push to build an offshore financial hub and the peg to the US dollar.
HSI LONG
Avoid Klarna due to weak margins
Klarna is unprofitable with negative EBITDA, weak free cash flow, and thin margins; the stock lacks a bullish thesis and risks a severe drop of 60-70% from highs.
KLAR AVOID
Avoid Palantir, overvalued, high correction risk
Palantir trades at an extremely high multiple (54x revenue) and historical statistics show companies valued over 30x revenue typically correct by more than 50%; the stock already fell from 200 to 120 and further downside is likely.
PLTR AVOID
Watch Chinese banks for offshore expansion
Major Chinese state banks (ICBC, Agricultural Bank, Construction Bank) are gaining a new offshore lending channel that could boost earnings, but their onshore balance sheets are burdened by bad quality local government debt and collapsing net interest margins, making a full entry premature.
Chinese banks (ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank) WATCH
Remain long US equities as safe haven
The US remains the world’s primary financial center with deep liquidity, strong legal protections, and no viable replacement because China consciously refuses full capital account liberalization; therefore the core portfolio stays in US equities.
SPY LONG
Bullish Sezzle on strong cash flows
Sezzle shows excellent cash flows, a bullish technical setup with a potential cup-and-handle pattern, and strong revenue growth; previous analysis already played out with a 4x move.
SEZL LONG
Bullish Affirm on strong profit growth
Affirm demonstrates very strong cash flows, rapid revenue and profit growth, and a bullish chart setup with a big cup-and-handle pattern; it is a high-quality BNPL name.
AFRM LONG
HIGH
17:54
Jun 27
Jun 27
Dmitry Solodin
2mo
CRM
ORCL
CoreWeave 1ST
USD/RUB
USD/JPY
▾
MED
Undervalued SaaS to monetize AI
Beaten-down enterprise software companies are the real monetization layer of the AI stack. They control critical workflow, own proprietary data, have compliance moats, and will replace human tasks with AI agents, charging clients via usage-based models. The market overestimates AI disruption risk to these platforms; they are set for a second wave of AI-driven growth.
CRM LONG
NOW LONG
ADBE LONG
INTU LONG
SNOW LONG
PLTR LONG
NET LONG
Avoid Oracle and CoreWeave
Oracle and CoreWeave carry excessive risk due to aggressive debt-fueled buildouts, negative free cash flow, and unproven ability to convert large backlogs into stable profits. Elevated debt and reliance on uncertain future orders from startups make them dangerous to hold.
ORCL AVOID
CoreWeave AVOID
USD/RUB to rise to 150-170
USD/RUB is in an impulsive structure with a fourth-wave triangle consolidation, after which it is expected to resume its uptrend targeting 150-170 rubles per dollar. The Russian budget deficit and war-driven liquidity absorption by OFZ bonds keep ruble under structural pressure.
USD/RUB LONG
USD/JPY targets 170-175
The yen carry trade remains intact as USD/JPY breaks higher, potentially forming a cup-and-handle pattern targeting 170-175. A weakening yen supports global equity flows, and no signs of reversal yet make this a sustained trend.
USD/JPY LONG
Bitcoin not yet time to buy
Bitcoin has broken key support levels and the structure points to a bearish scenario, with a potential cycle low around 45-25k by autumn 2026. It is not yet time to buy; the signal remains red until a clear bottom forms.
BTC AVOID
TSMC flows stay strong
TSMC is operating at over 105% capacity, completely loaded with AI-related orders, and is shifting toward the most advanced, highest-margin process nodes. Even if some demand slows, the foundry's cash flows are unlikely to drop significantly, keeping the business extremely resilient.
TSM LONG
Avoid oil due to geopolitics
Oil is currently unmanageable due to extreme geopolitical uncertainty (Iran, Hormuz Strait, Trump-driven shocks). Fundamentals are unclear and price swings are random; it is not recommended to trade crude oil now as it will produce many casualties.
WTI AVOID
Cybersecurity moats deepen with AI
Cybersecurity companies like CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks possess deep integration into enterprise compliance and sensitive data, creating extremely high switching costs. The AI revolution will amplify cyber threats, ensuring durable demand and pricing power, though rich valuations require careful entry timing.
PANW WATCH
CRWD WATCH
AI energy generation boom ahead
AI infrastructure boom is far from over, with bottlenecks shifting from chips to energy and power equipment. Data center buildout requires massive new generation and electrical infrastructure, driving long-term demand growth for companies providing nuclear energy and traditional power equipment.
CEG LONG
GE LONG
ENR.DE LONG
Eaton wins from Nvidia data center partnership
Eaton (ETN) directly partners with Nvidia to design electrical equipment for data centers, giving it an edge over competitors. As data centers require specialized power distribution and switchgear, Eaton is positioned to capture outsized demand due to its technology alignment with the dominant GPU ecosystem.
ETN LONG
AI drives liquid cooling demand
Rising GPU cluster density critically requires liquid cooling. Vertiv is a leading player in data center cooling infrastructure and will benefit from the increasing need for advanced thermal management as AI workloads expand.
VRT LONG
Copper supply deficit supports FCX
Copper is an essential material for all the electrical infrastructure being built for AI: wiring, transformers, and power distribution. Supply deficits are expected to persist through 2027-2028, supporting a bullish setup for copper producers. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is the vehicle used, with a plan to add on corrections.
FCX LONG
Buy Microsoft on dips
Microsoft is the safest hyperscaler bet with the most diversified monetization, healthy free cash flow relative to capex, and the broadest ecosystem (GitHub, Copilot, M365). Despite some margin pressure, its risk profile is much lower than peers, and any technical correction to ~230 would offer a strong buying opportunity.
MSFT LONG
Buy S&P 500 on corrections
The S&P 500 is in a long-term fifth wave up within a supercycle, driven by AI capex and liquidity. Short-term corrections are normal and should be bought, as the secular trend remains intact, targeting eventually 9000 points. The strategy is to buy the dip.
SPY LONG
Accumulate gold on pullbacks
Gold is in a long-term uptrend, consolidating in a complex correction (likely WXY). Dips provide opportunities to add or roll option positions (collars) with limited risk. The position is managed via GLD, adding on pullbacks with a view of continued bullish structure.
GLD LONG
MED
19:23
Jun 19
Jun 19
Dmitry Solodin
2mo
SPCX 1ST
OPENAI 1ST
ANTHROPIC 1ST
SOXX
SPY
▾
HIGH
Avoid SpaceX, extreme overvaluation, cash-out scheme.
SpaceX is a deeply unprofitable company with $18.7B revenue, $4.9B loss, and capex exceeding revenue, yet it is valued at $2.5T (94x sales). This extreme overvaluation compares poorly to Amazon. The IPO is a classic cash-out scheme for insiders to transfer risk to public markets. The company should be avoided as a long-term investment.
SPCX AVOID
Avoid upcoming AI IPOs, massive losses.
OpenAI and Anthropic are planning IPOs with projected valuations around $1-1.3T each, despite massive losses and high R&D spending. Their economics are deeply unprofitable, and they face zero-margin competition from Chinese players. The IPOs will allow existing private investors to cash out at extremely elevated prices. These upcoming IPOs should be avoided.
OPENAI AVOID
ANTHROPIC AVOID
Avoid semiconductors, extreme overbought bubble.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) is extremely overbought, with weekly RSI at 90. Similar semiconductor rallies in 2000, 2008, and 2020 preceded sharp crashes of 30-50%. The sector is in a late-stage mania. He is steering clear of semiconductors despite their recent strength.
SOXX AVOID
Avoid S&P 500, overconcentrated in AI hyper-scalers.
The S&P 500 is increasingly concentrated in a few hyper-scaler Big Tech stocks (Google, Amazon, Microsoft) that are making massive AI capex bets. If that bet fails, the index will suffer. He is deliberately reducing exposure to the index and shifting toward less correlated deep value stocks.
SPY AVOID
Long Russian RTS Index, massive triangle breakout.
The Russian RTS Index (dollar-denominated) has been in a massive consolidation triangle since 2008 (18 years). This pattern suggests a multi-year bullish breakout of 5–10+ years could be ahead, potentially triggered by the end of the war. He sees it as a worthwhile long-term investment despite the geopolitical risks.
RTS Index LONG
Avoid Bitcoin, AI energy competition threatens mining.
Bitcoin faces severe headwinds as AI compute demands will compete for energy. Governments may ban or restrict bitcoin mining to prioritize AI, and miners are already converting capacity to AI processing. This structural threat could force a protocol change or significantly reduce Bitcoin's viability and mining profitability.
BTC AVOID
Watch Rocket Lab breakdown, crash risk.
Rocket Lab (RKLB) is currently range-bound and overvalued on fundamentals, but a technical breakdown below a key green support line would trigger a sharp crash. He suggests speculators could play the downside only after that level is decisively broken, as it would signal a waterfall decline.
RKLB WATCH
Long gold and silver via zero-cost collar.
He holds a large zero-cost collar position in gold and silver, which can be rolled indefinitely at no cost. He expects a long-term upside move with high probability, allowing him to eventually profit or break even. The position is structured to be essentially risk-free while waiting for the breakout.
GLD LONG
SILVER LONG
Buy deep value, dividend aristocrats, small caps.
He recommends focusing on deep value, boring businesses and dividend aristocrats as a smarter, less risky approach than chasing hyped AI stocks. Following Peter Lynch's philosophy, such companies with stable cash flows and low visibility can outperform the index, especially when bought on dips and sold during peaks.
IWM LONG
NOBL LONG
Buy Adobe, massive buyback, technical reversal.
Adobe (ADBE) is a core long position. The company has an enormous buyback that has reduced shares by 20%, and free cash flow continues to grow. Technically, the stock is forming a bullish wave structure, and he expects a sharp bounce with a target around $400. He is accumulating on the decline.
ADBE LONG
Long Lyft, network effects, eventual breakout.
Lyft (LYFT) is a smaller ride-hailing company with solid network effects, analogous to Uber. Though the stock is still range-bound and the timing of a breakout is uncertain, the underlying cash flows are stable and it has long-term upside potential. He holds the position but is not adding until a clear breakout occurs.
LYFT LONG
HIGH
19:58
Jun 05
Jun 05
Dmitry Solodin
3mo
GOOGL FLIP
META FLIP
AMZN 1ST
ORCL
MSFT FLIP
▾
HIGH
Avoid hyper scalers due to capex bomb.
Major hyper scalers (Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta) are facing a capex bomb: capital expenditures are growing much faster than AI revenue, leading to massive future depreciation that will hit earnings, and free cash flow is already declining (e.g., Amazon's FCF near zero). The risk of non-recovery is high, and these stocks have already run up. Therefore, it is better to avoid them despite their current fundamental strength.
GOOGL AVOID
META AVOID
AMZN AVOID
MSFT AVOID
Avoid Oracle due to debt risk.
Oracle is overleveraged in AI infrastructure projects, relying heavily on debt, making it risky if AI investments do not pay off. The stock is highly volatile and should be avoided.
ORCL AVOID
Long Eaton as AI infrastructure beneficiary.
Eaton Technologies is a beneficiary of the AI data center buildout, providing electrical equipment. It has strong fundamentals, accelerating free cash flow, a cheap valuation (P/E ~2.5x trailing? but growing), and a bullish cup-and-handle technical pattern. The capex cycle will drive revenue growth for years, making it a compelling long.
ETN LONG
Long Insia for growth and value.
Insia (likely a pharma/biotech company) has explosive growth in revenue and EPS, very cheap valuation (P/E ~14, earnings yield 8%), strong free cash flow growth, and all fundamentals point to significant upside. Technical setup shows a cup and handle pattern, making it a high-conviction long idea.
Insia LONG
Long Tencent with cup-and-handle.
Tencent is a specific pick within the HK market, showing a cup-and-handle pattern and decent fundamentals. It could break out and run higher. He rates it 81 parrots, indicating a good opportunity.
00700.HK LONG
Watch Alibaba for breakout above $200.
Alibaba has the potential to be a major AI player in China (similar to Google/Amazon), but current weak free cash flow and slowdown in metrics make it risky near term. He recommends buying on a breakout above $200, which would confirm renewed strength. For now, it is a watch and waiting for a clearer signal.
BABA WATCH
Long Hang Seng Index (2800 ETF).
The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (via ETF 2800) is forming a bullish triangle pattern and looks set for a long-term move higher. He identifies Tencent as a specific stock within it, with a cup-and-handle pattern and solid fundamentals. The index itself is heavily weighted toward financials and tech, but the tradeable expression is the 2800 ETF.
2800.HK LONG
Long NextEra for AI electricity demand.
NextEra Energy is a long-term investment in electrical utilities that will benefit from rising electricity demand from AI data centers. The company has stable business, long-term growth, and he is currently invested.
NEE LONG
Long Duolingo for growth at cheap price.
Duolingo is undervalued with a P/E of 14, earnings yield 8%, strong revenue and profit growth, and a ROE of 34%. Current price around 100, target 230+ by 2027. He holds a position and plans to use options to leverage on breakout. It is a core long idea.
DUOL LONG
Long Marvel for AI networking growth.
Marvel Technology is a critical networking chip supplier for AI data centers (optical interfaces, DSPs). It has explosive growth (revenue up 600% YoY), strong free cash flow, and is undervalued relative to growth (P/E ~90 but earnings yield high). Despite high valuation, the growth trajectory justifies further upside. Technicals show more room to run before a correction.
MRVL LONG
Short SoundHound for losses and dilution.
SoundHound AI is a loss-making company with negative operating margins, increasing losses, and constant dilution via share issuance. The business model is unproven, and the stock is in a downtrend after the post-IPO support ended. He expects it to fall to $2 or lower, presenting a short opportunity.
SOUN SHORT
HIGH
12:41
May 22
May 22
Dmitry Solodin
3mo
WMT 1ST
NFLX 1ST
HIMS 1ST
FINV
PEGA
▾
HIGH
Walmart overbought, avoid.
Walmart is extremely overbought, in a fifth wave of a massive cycle. It has no growth (revenue growing inline with inflation), very low dividend yield, and no meaningful buybacks. It is likely to enter a long-term sideways or declining phase.
WMT AVOID
Netflix dominant cash flow machine.
Netflix is a cash flow machine with accelerating revenue (18% CAGR) and free cash flow. AI is reducing content costs, improving margins. Competitors like Disney+ and HBO Max are losing money, while Netflix has a unique data-driven content model. Strong buyback program.
NFLX LONG
Hims weak fundamentals avoid.
Hims & Hers has very volatile and weak fundamentals. Gross margin dropped from 80% to 57% due to regulatory issues and product mix. He advises staying away completely.
HIMS AVOID
Finvolution cup-handle watch.
Finvolution is a small Chinese fintech stock with a potential cup-and-handle pattern, but it is very risky. Cash flows are unstable and it should be a tiny position only for speculative investors.
FINV WATCH
PEGA in software basket.
Pegasystems is part of a basket of software companies with strong moats (CRM, NOW, SAP, PEGA). It has similar characteristics and should benefit from the same secular trends. Position size should be small.
PEGA LONG
MP Materials risky, avoid.
MP Materials is a small, cyclical, unprofitable rare-earth miner. It has no buybacks and highly volatile cash flows. He does not recommend investing, comparing it to his losing trade in Albemarle.
MP AVOID
Zscaler watch for breakout.
Zscaler has strong growth (33% revenue growth) and improving cash flows, but is in a consolidation zone. He is waiting for a breakout from a cup-and-handle pattern. It is riskier than ServiceNow but has high potential upside.
ZS WATCH
FactSet dividend yield near peak.
FactSet is near its 10-year high dividend yield with a payout ratio of 30-40%, safe balance sheet, and growing dividends. It is a classic Geraldine Weiss dividend strategy pick.
FDS LONG
Adobe buybacks support upside.
Adobe is in a fourth-wave correction. It generates $10B in free cash flow, is aggressively buying back shares (20% of float already repurchased), and the stock is at a 10-year high dividend yield. He expects a rebound to $350.
ADBE LONG
Intuit value at dividend yield peak.
Intuit is at its 10-year maximum dividend yield, indicating value. Cash flows are strong, revenue growing 15%, and the company has a wide moat. He bought shares today expecting a recovery.
INTU LONG
Cigna stable dividend payer.
Cigna is a large insurance company with stable cash flows and strong free cash flow, making it a reliable dividend payer. Buffett's Berkshire also relies on insurance as a core business.
CI LONG
Microsoft strong buy on fundamentals.
Microsoft is a unique company with no direct comparable. It has massive revenue, strong cash flows, is cheaper than the S&P 500 on earnings yield, and is in the third wave of a long-term uptrend. It will remain an AI infrastructure leader for decades.
MSFT LONG
Comcast dividend yield high.
Comcast is a traditional telecom/infrastructure dividend stock. It is at a 10-year high dividend yield, pays stable dividends, and attracts income-oriented investors.
CMCSA LONG
Salesforce fifth wave expected.
Salesforce is in a fourth wave, similar to ServiceNow, and expects a fifth wave to new highs. Fundamentals are strong with cash flows growing. The company is innovative like Sberbank but with better moats.
CRM LONG
Samsara moat and growth.
Samsara (IOT) is a newer company with a strong network effect in IoT. It has solid cash flow growth and is part of a recommended basket of software moat stocks. However, it is smaller and riskier than ServiceNow.
IOT LONG
AllianceBernstein dividend value play.
AllianceBernstein is near its 10-year maximum dividend yield with a ~3% yield and good payout ratios. The company was historically premium but has become attractively valued.
AB LONG
ServiceNow fifth wave to 300.
ServiceNow has completed a fourth-wave correction at the 62% Fibonacci retracement level. Fundamentals are strong with accelerating cash flows. The stock is expected to start a fifth wave with a minimum target of $300, potentially reaching it by summer 2027.
NOW LONG
HIGH
20:05
May 08
May 08
Dmitry Solodin
3mo
SOXX 1ST
AMD FLIP
MSFT
INTC FLIP
CRM
▾
HIGH
Semis overbought, avoid exposure.
The semiconductor sector (SOX) is extremely overbought and overvalued, with a parabolic rise that historically leads to sharp corrections. The angle of ascent equals the angle of descent, implying a severe selloff. Investors should be cautious and avoid exposure.
SOXX AVOID
AMD overbought, avoid or exit.
AMD has also risen too fast (137% in 70 days) and is now extremely overbought. While its fundamentals are better than Intel's, the price has run ahead of reality, and a significant correction is likely. The risk/reward is unfavorable for new longs.
AMD AVOID
Microsoft strong, hold or buy.
Microsoft is a high-quality blue chip with strong and growing revenue, earnings, and free cash flow. The current technical correction is not a concern; the company is fundamentally sound and the stock is a safe long-term hold.
MSFT LONG
Intel overbought, avoid the stock.
Intel has surged 220% in a month without fundamental improvement; the rally is driven by greed, short squeeze, and hopes for AI CPU demand, but the stock is extremely overvalued with negative earnings and free cash flow. The risk of a sharp reversal is very high.
INTC AVOID
CRM safe play, buy on dip.
Salesforce is a large-cap CRM company with solid revenue growth, rising EBITDA, and improving free cash flow. Its valuation is modest (P/E ~23, P/S ~4) and it is a safer alternative to more speculative names. The stock is in a corrective phase and likely to resume an uptrend.
CRM LONG
Meta ad leader, long for upside.
Meta has overtaken Google in ad revenue and is becoming a dominant advertising platform, with excellent AI-powered targeting that drives outperformance. Fundamentals are strong with good free cash flow, and the technical setup suggests the start of a new impulsive wave higher.
META LONG
PayPal deep value, long for yield.
PayPal is deeply undervalued with a forward earnings yield over 10%, compared to S&P 500's ~4%. The company is profitable with stable margins, no bankruptcy risk, and the stock is near multi-year lows. The recovery will be slow but the risk/reward is favorable for long-term value investors.
PYPL LONG
Pega cup-with-handle, long breakout.
Pega is forming a large cup-with-handle pattern and could break out to $300 from current $35, offering a multi-bagger opportunity. The company is a strong player in CRM software, and buying at current levels or on breakout is attractive for long-term investors.
PEGA LONG
TTD cyclical recovery, long upside.
Trade Desk is in a cyclical downturn but the platform is strong (95% retention), AI integration may boost margins, and the stock is well-positioned to recover. The technical analysis suggests a re-test of highs and a target of ~$50 in 1.5–2 years, offering significant upside from $22.
TTD LONG
Duolingo growth, buy for breakout.
Duolingo has excellent growth metrics: revenue growing ~25% YoY, EPS surging, margins improving, and free cash flow rising 50% YoY. The valuation is reasonable (P/E ~12). Technically, it is forming a cup-with-handle pattern that could lead to a strong breakout.
DUOL LONG
Inse extreme value, super-cycle long.
Inse (pharma/health-tech) has exploding EPS (from $0.14 to $7 in 1.5 years), 20% revenue growth, strong margins, no debt, and a very attractive P/E of 12. Technically, it is in a large cup-with-handle pattern on a super-cycle wave, suggesting enormous upside potential.
INSE LONG
Exxon benefits from oil disruption.
Exxon Mobil is a beneficiary of the oil supply disruption from the Strait of Hormuz, with the stock in an uptrend and likely to continue rising given the physical oil market tightness and potential for further price spikes. News suggests Exxon may acquire assets, supporting the bullish outlook.
XOM LONG
HIGH
13:56
May 03
May 03
Dmitry Solodin
4mo
SBER.ME 1ST
FCX
GAZP.ME 1ST
MRVL 1ST
NVDA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Sberbank bullish near highs
Sberbank is approaching its highs on strong technicals and is poised to break out; one of the safest Russian blue chips.
SBER.ME LONG
FCX bullish on copper shortage
Freeport-McMoRan is a pure copper play benefiting from structural copper shortage; the stock broke out of a multi-year base and has significant upside.
FCX LONG
Gazprom buy on cheap valuation
Gazprom is extremely cheap and has multiple upside drivers including domestic gas prices and export optionality; current levels are a buying opportunity.
GAZP.ME LONG
Marvell growing faster than Nvidia
Marvell Technology is growing faster than Nvidia, with rapid revenue and earnings acceleration from AI infrastructure spending.
MRVL LONG
Nvidia bullish on capex demand
Nvidia remains a key beneficiary of massive hyperscaler capex; revenue growth is still strong and the stock is not overvalued given earnings acceleration.
NVDA LONG
GMK low-risk Russian commodity
Norilsk Nickel (GMK) is a low-risk Russian commodity play with strong fundamentals and a near-monopoly position in nickel and palladium.
GMKN.ME LONG
T-Bank bullish triangle pattern
TCS Group (T-Bank) shows a healthy triangle pattern with strong fundamentals and is a preferred Russian fintech pick.
TCSG.ME LONG
Russian equities buy on weakness
The Russian stock market is in a bullish triangle pattern; current levels are a buying zone for a long-term upward breakout, supported by cheap valuations.
Russian equities LONG
InfoTech sector bullish on AI adoption
Information Technology sector is fundamentally strong due to AI adoption driving revenue acceleration and margin expansion; the recent pullback offers a buying opportunity for long-term growth.
XLK LONG
AMD accelerating earnings, new highs
AMD is on a strong growth trajectory, hitting new highs with accelerating earnings per share driven by AI-related demand.
AMD LONG
Silver long, similar to gold
Silver follows a similar pattern to gold, with a triangle consolidation and eventual breakout expected; he holds a risk-free collar position.
SILVER LONG
DBC bullish cup-and-handle breakout
The broader commodity index DBC is forming a giant cup-and-handle pattern; a breakout would lead to a long-term multi-year rally across commodities.
DBC LONG
Duolingo strong AI-driven earnings growth
Duolingo is benefiting from AI integration, dramatically speeding up product development and expanding margins; EPS grew over 300% in 1.5 years, making it a strong growth hold.
DUOL LONG
Broadcom growing faster than Nvidia
Broadcom is growing faster than Nvidia with accelerating revenue and earnings, benefiting from the same hyperscaler capex boom.
AVGO LONG
Gold long with collar protection
Gold remains in a long-term uptrend with a triangle pattern; he holds a collar position to eliminate downside risk and expects a move toward 100–120.
GLD LONG
Dell cheap, strong growth, hold
Dell is a low-valuation play on the hyperscaler capex cycle; price-to-sales under 1, strong organic growth, and still has room to run.
DELL LONG
S&P 500 correction to 6700-6800
The S&P 500 is completing a fifth-wave impulse; a correction to 6700–6800 is likely as technical and options positioning suggest a turn lower.
SPY SHORT
Bitcoin bearish cycle ending late 2026
Bitcoin is in a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows; the cycle likely ends in late 2026 with a target around 45–52k.
BTC SHORT
HSI accumulation zone ahead of rally
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index is in a long-term triangle consolidation; a dip toward support is a buying opportunity for multi-year accumulation before a major bull wave.
EWH LONG
HIGH
15:50
Apr 24
Apr 24
Dmitry Solodin
4mo
NOW
ORCL FLIP
TTD 1ST
DELL 1ST
RDDT 1ST
▾
HIGH
ServiceNow core AI platform.
ServiceNow is the leading platform for enterprise AI agents, with strong ARR growth (22%) and Now Assist adoption. The Armis acquisition, though expensive, is necessary for security. Technicals suggest a reversal.
NOW LONG
Oracle debt and dilution risk.
Oracle faces huge debt and negative free cash flow due to massive AI data center capex. Banks are reluctant to lend, leading to equity dilution. Risks are high and stock likely to fall further to ~115.
ORCL SHORT
Trade Desk independent ad leader.
Trade Desk is the leading independent ad platform. Despite a reputational scandal, fundamentals are strong, CEO bought shares, and potential OpenAI partnership is a catalyst. Long-term position is justified.
TTD LONG
Server demand drives Dell growth.
Dell benefits from growing server demand driven by AI and CPU upgrades. The company has strong accelerating cash flows and a buyback program.
DELL LONG
Reddit strong growth, still upside.
Reddit has excellent revenue growth (70%) and EPS growth (193%), with strong institutional buying. It still has room to run and is a top pick.
RDDT LONG
Agentic AI boosts CPU demand.
Agentic AI will increase demand for CPUs, benefiting both AMD and Intel. Both are leaders in CPU market and will see increased workload from AI agents.
AMD LONG
INTC LONG
Adobe resilient, undervalued, buyback.
Adobe's business is not deteriorating; fears over AI disruption are overblown. The company has a legal moat with licensed data, strong buyback, and is adapting with AI. Valuation is attractive at P/E 14-15.
ADBE LONG
Salesforce AI transformation strong.
Salesforce is successfully transforming into an operating system for AI agents. Agent Force ARR grew 170%, and tokenization model protects revenue. Flows are excellent.
CRM LONG
Palantir speculation for another wave.
Palantir has strong fundamentals (230% EPS growth) but high valuation. Technically, it may have another wave up to 210-220 before a larger decline, making it a good speculative trade.
PLTR LONG
HIGH
16:01
Apr 17
Apr 17
Dmitry Solodin
4mo
XLE
LYFT
TLT FLIP
XLU
IONQ FLIP
▾
HIGH
Commodities и Energy — хедж против инфляции.
Товарные активы (commodities) и акции энергетического сектора исторически служили хеджем против неожиданной инфляции, так как их цены растут при инфляционных шоках. Однако это волатильный хедж, и экспозицию следует дозировать.
XLE WATCH
DBC WATCH
Lyft недооценена, но ждите входа.
Lyft фундаментально недооценена (P/S <1), имеет потенциал роста эффективности, но технически находится в зоне накопления и может сначала упасть для сбора стоп-лоссов. Солодин держит инвестиционную позицию, но не рекомендует покупать на текущих уровнях.
LYFT WATCH
Избегайте TLT из-за инфляционного риска.
Длинные государственные облигации США (например, ETF TLT) уязвимы при росте инфляции, так как повышение инфляционных ожиданий приведёт к росту доходности и падению цен на облигации с длинной дюрацией. Солодин вышел из TLT и рекомендует избегать или хеджировать позиции.
TLT AVOID
Utilities — хороший хедж с экспозицией.
Инфраструктурные компании (сектор Utilities) выигрывают от роста инвестиций в энергетическую безопасность и инфраструктуру в условиях шоков предложения. BlackRock также делает на них ставку. Это компромисс между чистым хеджем и нормальной экспозицией.
XLU WATCH
Избегайте IonQ из-за убытков.
IonQ имеет маленькую выручку, большие убытки, постоянное разводнение акций и является хайповой акцией. Риски высоки, и после спада хайпа цена может сильно упасть. Не рекомендует инвестировать.
IONQ AVOID
Золото — тактический диверсификатор.
Золото может служить тактическим диверсификатором портфеля в условиях инфляции, но не должно быть основой защиты из-за высокой волатильности и нестабильной инфляционной чувствительности. Солодин использует застрахованные позиции через опционы.
GOLD WATCH
Переходите в SGOV или SHY для безопасности.
Краткосрочные казначейские облигации (например, ETF SGOV, SHY) менее чувствительны к изменению ставок, не имеют существенной просадки и позволяют получать купонный доход около 4% в условиях неопределенности. Рекомендуется перевести средства из длинных облигаций в краткосрочные для защиты капитала.
SHY LONG
SGOV LONG
Шортите S&P 500 до 6800/6600.
На основе волнового анализа и макрорисков (инфляция, ухудшение рынка труда) ожидается коррекция индекса S&P 500 до уровней 6800 и затем 6600. Солодин открыл небольшой шорт через опционы с этими целями.
SPY SHORT
OXY может прорваться вверх.
Occidental Petroleum технически формирует чашку с ручкой, и при прорыве уровня возможен значительный рост. Фундаментально выручка должна вырасти в следующих кварталах из-за высоких цен на нефть.
OXY LONG
HIGH
19:11
Apr 03
Apr 03
Dmitry Solodin
5mo
CEG 1ST
D 1ST
VST 1ST
FCX
ETN 1ST
▾
Speaker calls Constellation Energy the largest nuclear plant operator in the US with an insurmountable "protective moat" (permits, personnel, lack of competitors). It signed a historic 20-year, $16B contract with Microsoft and can bypass the 5-year grid connection queue. Nuclear power is the "gold standard" for providing 24/7, emission-free baseload power to energy-hungry data centers. CEG's exclusive assets and contracts position it to capture the structural growth in electricity demand. LONG due to its monopoly-like position in nuclear generation, direct contracts with hyperscalers, and ability to benefit from rising power prices. The entire sector could sell off in a broad market recession.
CEG LONG
Long-term.
Speaker notes Dominion Energy's "unique geography" as a monopoly servicing Northern Virginia's "data center alley," which handles ~70% of global internet traffic. It has signed agreements to supply 4.85 GW to data centers and owns critical, non-replicable rights-of-way. Physical location is a key moat. Dominion is the essential utility for the world's most concentrated data center region, guaranteeing demand for its power. LONG because it is a regulated monopoly in the epicenter of data center growth, with visible, contracted demand. Regulatory pushback on rate increases or operational issues.
D LONG
Long-term.
Speaker identifies Vistra as the largest unregulated power producer in the US, operating in liberalized markets (PJM, ERCOT). It owns a large fleet of gas and nuclear assets and has long-term contracts with Amazon and Meta. As an unregulated producer, VST directly benefits from price spikes in electricity caused by AI-driven demand. It has flexibility to manage peak loads and can pass on cost increases. LONG because its business model allows it to fully capitalize on rising and volatile power prices driven by data center demand. Exposure to potential regulatory changes or a sharp economic downturn reducing energy demand.
VST LONG
Long-term.
Speaker explicitly mentions Freeport-McMoRan as a major copper play, highlighting an existing and growing copper deficit driven by electrification of grids and data centers. Massive investments in power infrastructure (wiring, transformers) are highly copper-intensive. Supply has not kept up with this projected demand, creating a favorable medium-term setup. LONG as a medium-term investment in the copper supercycle theme, which is directly related to the energy infrastructure build-out. The stock is cyclical and volatile; a global recession could crater demand for industrial metals.
FCX LONG
Medium-term.
Speaker describes Eaton Corporation as controlling the supply chain for critical electrical equipment (transformers, switchgear, power management systems). It co-developed a 480-volt power architecture for AI racks with NVIDIA. The transformer shortage is acute, with lead times of 3-5 years. ETN's vertical integration and patented technology (e.g., Busway) allow it to pass on cost increases and benefit directly from the build-out of data center physical infrastructure. LONG due to its dominant position in a bottleneck market (electrical equipment) with a direct technological link to NVIDIA's AI hardware ecosystem. A slowdown in data center capex spending or supply chain normalization.
ETN LONG
Long-term.
Speaker highlights NextEra Energy's scale and dominance in *transmitting* energy via its subsidiary NextEra Energy Transmission. It has expertise in overcoming regulatory barriers for interstate power lines and a partnership with Google Cloud to use AI for grid optimization. The crisis is as much about grid capacity as generation. NEE controls critical transmission infrastructure, which is in severe shortage and has a multi-year development backlog, giving it pricing power. LONG due to its monopoly-like position in a scarce, essential service (power transmission) required for AI expansion. Execution delays in building new transmission lines or adverse regulatory decisions.
NEE LONG
Long-term.
21:43
Mar 27
Mar 27
Dmitry Solodin
5mo
GOLD
ADBE
SPY 1ST
MSFT
▾
Stated "золото я начал покупать, я уже говорил, уже купил" (I started buying gold, I already said, I already bought). Shows a chart with a collar strategy (long call + short put) to define risk. The price is seen as correcting within a larger impulsive uptrend, currently testing support from a previous "cup and handle" breakout zone. Momentum oscillators show periods of being oversold. Entering a long position on the expectation the bullish trend will resume, targeting a move to close the gap near 4800-5000. The correction could extend into a deeper zigzag pattern, testing lower levels before reversing.
GOLD LONG
Medium-term.
Holds a position in Adobe, averaging down. States the company has growing revenue/profits, a cheap valuation (P/E ~13), and an active buyback (~11%). Interprets the prolonged price decline as a wide, volatile consolidation range ("боковик") rather than a fundamental breakdown. The business metrics remain strong. Believes the stock is undervalued and expects a mean-reversion bounce within its large trading range, with a first target near 400. The stock remains in a weak momentum phase and could continue to languish at the bottom of its range for an extended period.
ADBE LONG
Medium-term.
Opened a long options position on the index, expecting a bounce to 6600-6700 by April. Identifies two primary Elliott Wave counts, both of which project an upward move from current levels. The decline from the highs is assessed as corrective (not a new impulse wave), characterized by overlapping waves and currently low volume, suggesting selling pressure is exhausting. Expects a significant counter-trend rally (minimum target ~6700) as part of either a larger wave 4 correction or a wave 2 within wave 3. The trade is structured with options to limit risk. A break below 6480 would invalidate the preferred diagonal count, suggesting a deeper correction toward 6000-6100 support.
SPY LONG
Short-term to medium-term (1-3 months).
Stated "Microsoft я покупаю" (I am buying Microsoft). Considers it a good company that has reached a reasonable valuation, acting as a key infrastructure provider for AI. The stock is resting on support at the moving average within a larger uptrend. Its business is viewed as defensive (cloud services) whether AI succeeds or not. Buying on the current dip as part of a long-term position, with an expectation it will bounce toward 420 initially. Willing to average down if price falls further to ~290. The current correction could be a deep wave 2 within a diagonal pattern, potentially extending the drawdown.
MSFT LONG
Medium-term to long-term.
17:13
Mar 21
Mar 21
Dmitry Solodin
5mo
SPY
LEN 1ST
BTC
KKR 1ST
NDX
▾
Speaker expects a bounce in the S&P 500 following the March OPEX expiration, likely by the end of the next week ("Я ожидаю в следующую неделю... какой-то отскок"). The massive negative gamma from the March options series (which exacerbated selling) has now expired. This removes a technical selling pressure and allows for a rebalancing bounce. WATCH for a short-term bullish reversal setup as the technical selling pressure from options market makers abates. A new series of large put options could be written in the next quarter, recreating negative gamma and selling pressure.
SPY WATCH
Short-term
Speaker highlights Lennar (LEN) and KKR as examples of companies being sold by institutions, with falling revenues/profits and significant exposure to weakening cyclical sectors (housing) and private credit, respectively. Institutional selling in the face of deteriorating fundamentals suggests these companies face headwinds. For financials like KKR, there is hidden risk from private credit loans that may need to be written down. AVOID because fundamental deterioration is driving institutional capital away, increasing downside risk. A stronger-than-expected economy could prevent a deeper cyclical downturn and stabilize these businesses.
LEN AVOID
KKR AVOID
Medium-term
Speaker explicitly says Bitcoin will likely reach its low by the end of 2026/early 2027, in a range of $25,000 to $50,000, and advises against buying now ("не торопитесь сейчас покупать"). Price remains below key moving averages and is in a clear downtrend. A proper buy setup requires a breakout above the MA and a subsequent successful retest, which is not present. AVOID because the trend is down, a significant lower low is expected, and no constructive buy trigger is in sight. A sudden surge in global liquidity could cause an earlier rally.
BTC AVOID
Long-term
Speaker identifies a target zone of 6,750-6,800 for a bounce in the Nasdaq (NDX) and notes the market is at local support with oversold indicators. The recent decline is not impulsive but rather a diagonal or complex correction, which typically implies a sharp retracement (second wave). Market sentiment is also at extreme fear. WATCH for a significant technical rebound to the cited target zone from current oversold conditions. The decline could become impulsive, invalidating the corrective pattern and leading to further downside.
NDX WATCH
Short-term
Speaker states he is starting to re-enter gold positions ("Я начинаю заново заходить в золото") and is improving his cost basis. He expects a strong mean reversion bounce back to the ~$5,000 level by April-May, based on technical patterns (triangle, wave count) and the large current deviation from the moving average. LONG because the setup offers a favorable risk/reward for a bounce, and he is actively rebuilding his position. The pattern could extend into a larger correction before the anticipated bounce.
GOLD LONG
Medium-term
Speaker explicitly states he has started actively accumulating silver ("Я серебро начал активно отрабатывать уже в лонг") using the SLV ETF and options. He analyzes a triangle pattern and believes the current zone is a good area to start building a position, using options to limit risk instead of buying the spot asset outright. LONG because he is initiating positions in anticipation of the pattern eventually resolving to the upside. Price could make another leg down to the $62-60 area before reversing.
SLV LONG
Medium-term
23:01
Mar 13
Mar 13
Dmitry Solodin
5mo
XOM 1ST
USO 1ST
BTC
CRM
TSLA 1ST
▾
"Exxon Mobil is not threatened because it operates all over the world and can easily replace one direction with another. They will increase both the volume of sold material and the price." Global oil majors with diversified, worldwide logistics networks will not be bottlenecked by the Middle East blockade. They will capture a massive revenue windfall by selling their non-Middle Eastern oil at inflated global prices. LONG. These companies get the pricing benefit of the crisis without the localized logistical risk. A severe global recession triggered by high energy prices, leading to widespread demand destruction.
XOM LONG
medium-term
"The Strait of Hormuz remains practically closed... blocking about 20% of world oil exports. The technical ability to release from reserves is only 3 million barrels a day, which is incomparable to the 20 million barrels lost." The physical limitation of extraction and logistics means strategic reserves cannot plug the supply hole. As the blockade drags on, the compounding daily deficit will drain global inventories, forcing oil prices significantly higher (potentially $150-$200) to destroy demand. LONG. The math of the supply deficit heavily favors a continued breakout in oil prices. A sudden, unexpected diplomatic resolution that immediately reopens the Strait of Hormuz.
USO LONG
medium-term
"Bitcoin broke support... usually the price corrects 70-80% from the high in each cycle. We have only done 50%. We should hit the bottom between October and April 2027." Cryptocurrency follows strict historical boom-and-bust cycles. Because the current drawdown has not yet reached the historical 70-80% threshold, there is still significant downside risk (potentially to $43,000 or $27,000) before the true cyclical bottom is formed. AVOID. The asset is in a confirmed cyclical bear market with lower targets pending. Premature macro liquidity injections (like emergency QE from the Fed) that spark an early crypto bull run.
BTC AVOID
long-term
"I see institutional purchases going in large volumes for ServiceNow... CRM and MSFT have excellent cash flows, are fundamentally attractive, and are testing support zones." While the broader market faces volatility, high-quality enterprise software companies with robust cash flows are being actively accumulated by institutions on dips. These technical support tests offer asymmetric entry points for long-term capital. LONG. Strong fundamentals combined with visible institutional buying at technical support levels. A systemic market sell-off that drags down all high-beta tech stocks regardless of individual cash flow strength.
CRM LONG
NOW LONG
MSFT LONG
long-term
"Tesla is likely to go down... it is falling out of the triangle, wave C has finished, and it will go to the $220 area to create another shoulder for distribution." The completion of a long-term technical consolidation pattern (a triangle) to the downside indicates that sellers have fully overwhelmed buyers. This initiates a new bearish impulse wave as institutional distribution continues. SHORT. The technical breakdown signals a high-probability move to lower support zones. Surprise positive delivery numbers or unexpected product announcements that invalidate the technical breakdown.
TSLA SHORT
short-term
"Wheat was falling to a massive cluster... it is starting to leave this cluster upwards. This is a commodity supercycle associated with shock scenarios and supply chain disruptions." Logistical bottlenecks in global shipping routes do not just affect energy; they disrupt the transport of global food supplies. As wheat hits major historical technical support, fear of supply shortages will attract buyers and drive prices higher. LONG. A strong technical bounce aligns with the macro narrative of global supply chain stress. Rapid de-escalation of geopolitical tensions easing shipping and logistics fears.
WEAT LONG
short-term
"We have a lot of negative gamma on the market right now hanging on the March contracts. After the 20th, these options will expire and the gamma will change sharply." Options market mechanics (dealers hedging negative gamma) are currently suppressing the broader market and exacerbating volatility. Once the March OPEX clears, this mechanical selling pressure will lift, potentially allowing the market to reverse and rally. WATCH. Wait for the March 20th options expiration to clear before taking aggressive directional positions on the broader index. A severe exogenous macro shock (e.g., oil spiking to $200) overrides options dealer positioning and forces a true fundamental market crash.
SPY WATCH
short-term
"Mosaic... technically it can go up. It broke the resistance level, tested it, and is reversing. Its chart correlates with oil because fertilizers are made using hydrocarbons." The geopolitical shock is creating a broader commodity supercycle. High energy input costs and disrupted global supply chains will drive up the end-market prices for agricultural chemicals, expanding top-line revenue for major fertilizer producers. LONG. The stock is breaking out of a long-term downtrend, supported by macro tailwinds in the commodity sector. High fertilizer prices causing farmers to reduce application rates, leading to demand destruction.
MOS LONG
medium-term
"The business looks great, but the current valuation is 77 times earnings, which is very expensive. It dropped below the moving average and is testing it as resistance, forming a head and shoulders pattern." When a stock with a priced-for-perfection valuation breaks key technical support levels, it signals that institutional distribution is occurring. The stock is vulnerable to a deep mean-reversion correction (potentially down to the $45-$80 range) to normalize its multiple. SHORT. The combination of extreme valuation and a bearish technical breakdown provides a high-probability downside setup. Unexpectedly massive earnings beats or new AI contract announcements that trigger a short squeeze.
PLTR SHORT
medium-term
"It dropped 85% because it was expensive... now we are entering an extreme oversold zone, and the company is slowly moving into the profitable zone with revenue still growing." The massive valuation reset is complete. As the underlying business transitions from unprofitable to profitable while maintaining top-line growth, the extreme technical oversold conditions will trigger a sharp mean-reversion rally as the market re-rates the stock positively. LONG. The combination of fundamental business improvement and extreme technical exhaustion of sellers creates a strong buy setup. The company fails to achieve projected profitability, causing the market to punish the stock further.
TEAM LONG
medium-term
19:15
Mar 01
Mar 01
Dmitry Solodin
6mo
AMZN
CRM
TLT 1ST
GOOGL
SLV
▾
Amazon's Free Cash Flow has dropped from ~$48B to ~$7.6B and is trending toward negative territory in 2026 due to massive Capex increases. While technically the stock could still hit $270 (new high), the fundamental deterioration makes it a dangerous hold compared to peers like MSFT. Avoid or Watch. Solodin prefers MSFT/GOOG. Technical momentum could override fundamental weakness in the short term.
AMZN WATCH
medium-term
These stocks are testing major historical accumulation zones or breaking out with strong momentum (specifically INTU). Solodin identifies these as having strong "network effects" and favorable technical setups (testing support with volume) while other sectors look overextended. Long on technical support tests. Broader S&P 500 correction.
CRM LONG
INTU LONG
UBER LONG
LYFT LONG
medium-term
TLT is forming a base. Solodin suggests a "Collar" strategy (Buy TLT, Buy Put, Sell Call) to create a risk-free trade. The dividend yield (3.7%) plus the option premium (3.2%) creates a ~7% yield with capped upside but protected downside. Long via Options Strategy (Collar). Capped upside if rates drop significantly faster than expected.
TLT LONG
medium-term
Microsoft and Google have maintained stable Free Cash Flow (FCF) despite high Capex, unlike Amazon whose FCF is collapsing. MSFT trades at a reasonable 24 P/E with strong "Rule of 40" metrics. As the market becomes volatile, capital will rotate into "Blue Chip" tech that can self-fund growth without deteriorating balance sheets. Solodin explicitly bought MSFT for diversification and stability. Long for fundamental stability and reasonable valuation. General market correction dragging down all beta assets.
GOOGL LONG
MSFT LONG
medium-term
Silver had an extreme momentum spike and is now cooling off. The market needs to consolidate. Solodin is waiting for a pullback to the $55–65 range to re-enter for the next leg up. Wait for the dip to buy. Price may not dip deep enough to hit his entry zone.
SLV WATCH
medium-term
There is a structural deficit in the copper market. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is in a technical "Wave 5" upward impulse. The fundamental shortage combined with the technical breakout suggests the trend will continue throughout 2026. Long Copper miners. Global recession reducing industrial demand.
COPPER LONG
FCX LONG
medium-term
Nvidia is forming a potential Head & Shoulders pattern. Valuation is high relative to sales. If the "neckline" breaks, the stock could drop to $120–130. However, a bullish alternative (Triangle) exists if it holds support. Neutral/Avoid until the pattern resolves. If it is a triangle pattern, it could break out to new highs ($220+).
NVDA WATCH
short-term
Bitcoin hit a cycle peak of ~$126k and is now correcting. Historical "Halving Cycles" suggest the bottom won't occur until late 2026 or early 2027. Solodin expects a 77% drawdown from the peak, targeting the $25k–30k range. Any current rallies are likely "B-wave" bull traps (to ~$80-90k) before the final crash. Sell rallies; do not hold long positions. If BTC breaks above the $90k resistance and invalidates the lower high structure.
BTC SHORT
long-term
16:32
Feb 20
Feb 20
Dmitry Solodin
6mo
PFE
ORCL FLIP
PYPL
AAPL 1ST
ADBE
▾
Solodin uses Pfizer as an example of a "dead money" stock—trading between $22 and $29 with a high dividend yield (7%). Investors holding for the dividend face price risk. By selling Covered Calls (e.g., Strike 35) when volatility spikes (like during earnings), the investor collects extra yield (~5%) on top of dividends. NEUTRAL/INCOME. If the stock falls, the call premium buffers the loss. If it rises, the investor is happy to exit at the strike price. The stock rallies aggressively past the strike, forcing the investor to sell their shares and lose the dividend stream.
PFE NEUTRAL
medium-term
Oracle experienced a "flash crash" (drop from $170 to $140), pushing Implied Volatility (IV) to the 100th percentile (2-year high). Buying calls is too expensive due to the IV spike. Selling naked puts is risky in a crash. The optimal move is a "Credit Put Spread" (Sell ATM Put / Buy OTM Put). This strategy sells the expensive volatility to the market while capping downside risk. LONG (Volatility Short). As the stock stabilizes and IV crushes (reverts to mean), the spread becomes profitable even if the price doesn't rebound significantly. The stock continues to crash through the protective put strike, resulting in a max loss on the spread.
ORCL LONG
short-term
Solodin discusses a scenario where an investor bought PayPal at $100 and it crashed to $60 (and lower). He explains his personal strategy of holding a Protective Put at the time of entry. Instead of suffering the full -40% drawdown, the investor sells the appreciated Put option (which gained value during the crash) and buys a new, cheaper Put at a lower strike. The profit from this transaction is used to mathematically lower the cost basis of the stock (e.g., from $100 to $53). LONG (Recovery Play). This "rolling down" strategy allows investors to hold high-conviction assets through deep drawdowns without realizing full losses, positioning for a rebound with a lowered breakeven point. The stock continues to zero or stays flat below the new breakeven for an extended period, expiring the new hedges.
PYPL LONG
medium-term
Solodin identifies a pricing anomaly due to interest rates: Calls are expensive and Puts are cheap. He proposes a "Collar" strategy: Buy Stock at $255, Buy Jan 2027 Put (Strike 270), and Sell Jan 2027 Call (Strike 300). Because the Call is expensive, selling it generates enough premium to pay for the Put and lock in a guaranteed profit. The structure creates a position with zero downside risk (due to the Put) and a capped upside (due to the Call), yielding ~13% annualized—better than risk-free rates with equity exposure. LONG (Risk-Free Structure). This exploits the interest rate skew to create a bond-like return profile using equities. Opportunity cost if Apple skyrockets above $300; the investor is capped and misses out on excess gains.
AAPL LONG
long-term
Solodin highlights Adobe trading around $256. He notes that buying 100 shares requires ~$25,600, whereas a deep ITM LEAPS Call (Strike 150, Jan 2026) costs only ~$8,000. Alternatively, selling a Cash Secured Put at Strike 230 yields significant premium. Using LEAPS provides 3x leverage with a similar P&L profile to the stock but less capital at risk in a catastrophic failure. Selling the Put allows the investor to monetize the willingness to buy the dip, generating ~20% annualized yield if the stock stays flat or rises, or acquiring the stock at a steep discount ($200 net cost) if it falls. LONG via LEAPS for capital efficiency or Short Puts for income/acquisition. For LEAPS, time decay if the stock stagnates for years. For Short Puts, assignment of stock during a massive market crash.
ADBE LONG
long-term
20:00
Feb 13
Feb 13
Dmitry Solodin
6mo
ZS
ORCL 1ST
PLTR
MRNA 1ST
ONDS 1ST
▾
The Cybersecurity sector has been beaten down alongside software. Security is non-discretionary spend. These companies are approaching attractive buy zones. Solodin is watching them for entry but notes some (like ZS) have questions regarding multi-cloud competition. WATCH (Potential Longs). Further sector rotation out of high-multiple tech.
ZS WATCH
OKTA WATCH
FTNT WATCH
PANW WATCH
short-term
Oracle has a massive backlog but huge CapEx requirements ($13B negative free cash flow impact) to build AI infrastructure. The company is borrowing heavily to fund AI expansion. While revenue is growing, the balance sheet strain and high valuation make it a risky bet compared to cash-rich peers. AVOID. Successful execution of AI cloud strategy could justify the spend.
ORCL AVOID
medium-term
Palantir trades at a massive valuation (Market Cap ~$317B vs Revenue ~$4.5B). The chart shows a "Head and Shoulders" pattern and has broken moving average support. While the company is excellent (the "Google of AI"), the stock is priced for perfection. The valuation disconnect (P/S ratio > 60) makes it vulnerable to a deep correction, potentially down to the $60 range. SHORT / AVOID. AI hype could keep the valuation irrational for longer.
PLTR WATCH
medium-term
Revenue collapsed from $18B to ~$2.2B. The company has no free cash flow and is burning cash. This is a "broken" stock. Without a new blockbuster product to replace Covid revenues, there is no fundamental floor. It is a "falling knife" with no support. AVOID. Unexpected success in their cancer vaccine pipeline could trigger a rally.
MRNA AVOID
indefinite
Ondas Holdings (Combat drones/tech) has weak flows, negative margins, and high dilution risk (negative buyback/share issuance). Companies that cannot self-fund operations dilute shareholders to survive. High short interest here is likely justified due to the "empty" fundamentals. AVOID. Winning a major government contract could spike the price.
ONDS AVOID
short-term
Doximity stock has crashed, but fundamentals remain robust: 20% revenue growth, rising EPS, and P/E around 20x. It operates a "sticky" platform for medical professionals (the "LinkedIn for Doctors"). The crash is a technical "falling knife" into a long-term accumulation zone. The business model is not broken, making this a value entry point. LONG. A long-term compounder currently on sale. Catching a falling knife; volatility remains high.
DOCS LONG
long-term
CRM (Salesforce) is down ~50% and PEGA (Pegasystems) is trading at attractive valuations despite 300% EPS growth (for PEGA). Solodin notes these are top-tier "System of Record" companies. The market fears AI will replace these tools, but large enterprises (e.g., GM, AIG) cannot easily switch away from Salesforce due to decades of data integration, staff training, and embedded workflows. These companies possess the proprietary data required to train effective enterprise AI models, giving them a "Data Moat" startups cannot match. LONG. These are "sticky" businesses with growing cash flows trading at discount valuations. Continued compression of valuation multiples if AI fears persist longer than expected.
CRM LONG
PEGA LONG
medium-term / long-term
Both companies have high "Short Float" (>10-14%) and rising institutional buying (Transactions up >12%). DLocal (DLO) has ~30% revenue growth and is profitable. This setup creates a "Short Squeeze" potential. When strong hands (institutions) accumulate while short interest is high, any positive catalyst can force shorts to cover, fueling a rapid price ascent (similar to Tesla's past moves). LONG. Speculative play on a "Transition" phase driven by short covering. High volatility; these are "falling knives" until the trend explicitly reverses.
IONQ LONG
DLO LONG
short-term / medium-term
Adobe (ADBE) is down ~60%, Intuit (INTU) ~50%, and Workday (WDAY)/ServiceNow (NOW) have seen significant corrections despite stable or growing revenues. Similar to Salesforce, these companies are industry standards. For Adobe, while AI image generation exists, professional workflows require the full Adobe suite (editing, layers, vector). Professionals won't switch to a generic AI tool for complex deliverables. The "AI threat" is overstated; AI will be a feature *within* these platforms (e.g., Firefly in Photoshop). LONG. Buying the "best in breed" during a sector-wide panic. Pricing pressure from clients demanding AI-driven cost reductions.
NOW LONG
ADBE LONG
INTU LONG
WDAY LONG
medium-term / long-term
Pinterest is trading near lows ($15 range) but cash flows are positive and growing. EBITDA growth is nearly 100% YoY (though aided by base effects). AI generates content, but that content needs distribution and marketing. Pinterest is a key advertising platform benefiting from increased digital ad spend. The stock is in a massive accumulation zone; a return to the "center" of the range ($25) offers nearly 100% upside. LONG. Competition from other social platforms.
PINS LONG
medium-term
Zeta Global is down significantly but revenue is growing 35% YoY, and it is on the verge of GAAP profitability. Institutional ownership increased by 11.5% in the last 3 months. Unlike legacy tech trying to pivot, Zeta was "born in AI." It is currently in a technical accumulation zone. The combination of strong fundamental flows (revenue growth + approaching profitability) and institutional accumulation suggests the bottom is near. LONG. Target price around $40 (significant upside from current ~$15 levels mentioned). High volatility; price could retest lows before breaking out.
ZETA LONG
medium-term
19:50
Feb 08
Feb 08
Dmitry Solodin
6mo
ADBE 1ST
BTC 1ST
MSFT 1ST
PLTR 1ST
FCX 1ST
▾
The Technology Services sector (SaaS/Cybersecurity) dropped 10-15% recently while hardware/semis held up. Solodin specifically highlights Salesforce (CRM) showing strong flows despite the price drop. This is a classic sector rotation. High-quality cash-flowing software companies are being sold off to fund hardware Capex. This divergence creates a "buy the dip" opportunity in best-in-breed names like Palo Alto (PANW) and Salesforce (CRM) which are becoming value plays relative to their growth. Long via sector rotation. Enterprise spending slowdown; persistent high rates hurting high-duration stocks.
ADBE LONG
FTNT LONG
CRM LONG
NOW LONG
PANW LONG
INTU LONG
medium-term
Bitcoin is following a precise 4-year cycle that aligns with previous tops. Based on "Top-to-Bottom" and "Bottom-to-Bottom" time cycles, a significant correction is due, targeting a bottom in late 2026. The current price action mimics the distribution patterns of previous cycle peaks. Short / Avoid (Expect correction to 40k-50k range). Institutional adoption (ETFs) breaks the historical retail-driven cycle.
BTC SHORT
long-term
Both companies have pristine balance sheets and growing earnings, but Free Cash Flow (FCF) is dipping due to massive AI Capex ($160B forecast for Google). The market is punishing them for spending, but this spending is necessary to secure future dominance. The dip in price offers a favorable risk/reward (e.g., MSFT risk $50 vs reward $200) before the AI investments potentially pay off. Long (Dip Buy). "Depreciation bomb" – if AI Capex doesn't generate returns, amortization costs will crush future EPS.
MSFT LONG
GOOGL LONG
medium-term
Palantir broke below its key moving average support. While the AI narrative is strong, the technical damage (breaking the trend) takes precedence. It is expensive and now lacks momentum support. Avoid / Neutral. It could regain the moving average and squeeze shorts.
PLTR AVOID
short-term
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is breaking out of a 20-year historic resistance level. This technical breakout coincides with a projected global copper deficit. When a commodity producer breaks a multi-decade level during a supply crunch, it signals a violent repricing upward. A high-conviction long based on the convergence of macro supply/demand and a massive technical breakout. Global recession crushing industrial demand.
FCX LONG
medium-term
The stock attempted a Head & Shoulders pattern but failed to break the neckline decisively. Solodin is currently holding a short position via options. While the specific bearish pattern failed, the stock is struggling to maintain momentum compared to peers. However, the failure to break down suggests resilience, making this a tactical/managed trade rather than a "sell the house" conviction. Short (Tactical/Cautious). Solodin regrets not closing earlier, implying limited downside momentum remaining. The "AI Bubble" mania continues; price reclaims highs.
NVDA NEUTRAL
short-term
* CALM: Correction appears finished. * VITL: Forming a flat transition pattern. * CPRX: Trading near highs ($26.50) with strong fundamentals (low P/E, growing revenue). These are specific idiosyncratic setups unrelated to the broader tech beta. CPRX specifically is a breakout candidate if it clears resistance. Long (Tactical). Low liquidity in smaller caps; specific industry risks (e.g., avian flu for CALM).
CALM LONG
VITL LONG
CPRX LONG
short-term
AMD has formed a "Regular Flat" correction pattern where the recent low matched the previous low (Double Bottom), and the price is reacting positively. Unlike Nvidia, which is showing exhaustion, AMD's technical structure suggests the correction is complete. The "Regular Flat" is a continuation pattern that typically precedes a run to new all-time highs (target ~$280). Long on technical mean reversion and trend continuation. Semiconductor sector weakness; failure to hold the double bottom support.
AMD LONG
short-term
UnitedHealth is in a large Wave 4 distribution/correction. The stock is trading at the lower bound of its historical range. Technical analysis suggests a mean reversion to the median price (~$450) and potentially higher to complete the long-term Wave 5. Long. Regulatory changes in US healthcare; rising medical costs.
UNH LONG
medium-term
Inflation-adjusted natural gas prices are at 1990 levels (historic lows). The chart shows a completed diagonal pattern. The downside is mathematically limited by the cost of production and historic floors. The technical setup (diagonal) implies a sharp reversal or "impulse" move upward is imminent. Long as a contrarian mean-reversion play. Warm winter; continued oversupply; political pressure to keep energy cheap.
UNG LONG
medium-term
Disney is forming an "impulse" wave structure off the lows and is trading at a reasonable P/E of 16. The technicals (impulse + zigzag correction) create a high-probability setup for a continued rally toward $170-$200. Fundamentals are stabilizing with buybacks active. Speculative Long. Streaming profitability issues; legacy TV decline.
DIS LONG
medium-term
PayPal has dropped significantly (80% from highs) and is now trading at deep value multiples, yet revenue and earnings continue to grow. The market is pricing it for bankruptcy, but the cash flows tell a story of a mature "value" company. Solodin removed his hedges, signaling a shift from "cautious holding" to "conviction holding." Long (Deep Value). Competition from Apple Pay/fintech; margin compression.
PYPL LONG
long-term
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