Ideas
Reduce S&P 500 exposure; risks are elevated.
Solodin is reducing his model portfolio from roughly 140% to about 50% exposure because the S&P 500 is showing a divergence with AA corporate bond yields, record Finra margin debt, hedge funds cutting gross leverage, rising big-tech credit default swaps, and fragile dealer gamma. He sees resistance at 7750-7800 and support at 7500 and expects a possible correction rather than chasing.
Big Tech credit stress is rising.
Five-year credit default swaps on major Big Tech names Nvidia, Broadcom, Alphabet, and Amazon are rising sharply even as stock prices rally, signaling institutional investors see growing default and hidden-debt risk. Solodin reads this as a dollar-vote warning about big-tech balance sheets and off-balance-sheet obligations.
Big Tech credit stress is rising.
Nvidia's report was excellent and margins are at a peak near 63% net margin, but revenue jumped from about $165bn to $302bn. Maintaining this pace would require roughly $600bn next year, which he says is impossible without breaking hyperscalers. Once growth decelerates or capex ends, the stock will likely correct hard despite strong fundamentals.
Semiconductors negative; stay cautious now.
Asked about SOXX, Solodin sees the semiconductor ETF in a fourth-wave distribution or consolidation, with credit-default swaps rising and near-term negative dynamics. He advises watching the breakdown line rather than entering aggressively, as a deeper correction may follow.
Micron memory boom is a bubble.
Micron's revenue tripled as memory prices soared, but maintaining that pace would require about $180bn a year, which he says no economy can support. When the AI capex cycle ends and overproduction hits, memory prices and Micron shares should crash cyclically, so he warns not to enter.
Credo expensive; hard correction likely soon.
Credo Technology has strong revenue growth and improving profitability, but valuation is very high around 86 EV/EBITDA with significant stock-based compensation. Solodin expects a hard correction soon because it is expensive and the wave cycle is mature.
Adobe has upside to 350 then 500.
Adobe bounced strongly from his average around 235 and he thinks it is not done. His nearest target is 350, with a longer-term measured move toward 450-500, and a pullback toward 250 may offer another entry after the resistance break.
Salesforce reload zone near 190-200.
Solodin took profit in Salesforce after the gap near 242-243 and now expects a retest around 200. His plan is to reload near 200-190 for the next leg higher.
Monday.com may spike then retest 70-80.
Monday.com has not finished its move. Solodin thinks it may spike higher soon, then come back to test the prior breakout or 70-80 zone before continuing.
Microsoft head-and-shoulders risk if high fails.
Microsoft fundamentals are strong and it is more balanced than Amazon or Meta, but the chart shows a potential head-and-shoulders setup below the 560 high. Solodin is watching whether price fails and later tests the neckline area as a warning rather than treating it as an active short.
Meta obligations and buybacks are weakening.
Meta is aggressively building AI infrastructure through off-balance-sheet obligations and leases, while buybacks have collapsed from 135% of free cash flow to much lower levels and EPS shows deceleration or negative quarters. Solodin sees these as warning signs for profitability and stock risk.
Palantir price extreme; correction to 75-80.
Palantir's business is fine, but valuation is extremely high at about 69x earnings. Solodin says from such prices it can easily correct from 180 toward 75-80 and he would not enter now.
Zeta weaker than Trade Desk; avoid.
Zeta Global appears weaker than Trade Desk: large dilution, weak profitability near losses, and a high valuation. Solodin exited Zeta in favor of TTD within the same sector.
Trade Desk undervalued versus Zeta, target 50.
Solodin chose Trade Desk over Zeta because TTD is more stable, has better margins, no dilution, and buybacks, and carries a lower valuation. He expects an initial move toward 20-22 and a medium-term target near 50 by mid-2027 from around 13.
This Dmitry Solodin video, published August 28, 2026,
features Dmitry Solodin
discussing SPY, AVGO, GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, SOXX, MU, CRDO, ADBE, CRM, MNDY, MSFT, META, PLTR, ZETA, TTD.
14 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Dmitry Solodin
· Tickers:
SPY,
AVGO,
GOOGL,
AMZN,
NVDA,
SOXX,
MU,
CRDO,
ADBE,
CRM,
MNDY,
MSFT,
META,
PLTR,
ZETA,
TTD
