Feed - Buzzberg

00:36
Jun 04

@NickTimiraos

Logan argues that rates are not restrictive. While she does not say it like this, one argument for raising rates is that real rates are fall…

00:31
Jun 04

@NickTimiraos

Janet Yellen called Powell's stewardship of the Fed's independence "close to exemplary" at a retrospective hosted at the Brookings Instituti…

00:08
Jun 04

@NickTimiraos

@sidprabhu @BlacklionCTA Yes, it is the duration of the portfolio (particularly compared to the duration of the publicly held Treasury debt)…

21:12
Jun 03

@NickTimiraos

@SonOfAristotle It looks like you're using quarterly figures for inflation that omit the more recent (higher) readings. That's an interestin…

20:50
Jun 03

@NickTimiraos

I was speaking more to the question you posed, which is that the lower bound introduces an asymmetry or constraint on lowering the funds rat…

20:46
Jun 03

@NickTimiraos

Logan has previously cited the Dallas Fed's trimmed mean inflation reading to gauge underlying inflation but says today it may be understati…

20:40
Jun 03

@NickTimiraos

"It may be because of these considerations that the FOMC has not traditionally used its balance sheet in an active manner for the purpose of…

20:37
Jun 03

@NickTimiraos

That was before the Fed did Operation Twist, let alone QE2 and QE3. There are now many staff memos and transcripts from the 2010-11 period t…

20:20
Jun 03

@NickTimiraos

Here's the full exchange: Q: How big an issue is the balance sheet? Is it too big and what difference does it make anyways? Bernanke: Well, …

20:14
Jun 03

@NickTimiraos

The full Quarles quote: "In the language of We Westerners, Jay Powell drew the money bull. For you Easterners, in rodeo, you can't get a gre…

20:03
Jun 03

@NickTimiraos

https://t.co/GJqUfa5XS2

20:03
Jun 03

@NickTimiraos

A 2nd FOMC voter—Dallas's Lorie Logan—indicates rate hikes "this year" may be warranted "I am increasingly concerned that higher interest ra…

14:29
Jun 03

@NickTimiraos

Across the 10 responses included from this month's ISM survey of service-industry purchasing managers (the people who buy things on behalf o…

02:04
Jun 03

@NickTimiraos

@sidprabhu PCE ex-NY/CA

20:31
Jun 02

@NickTimiraos

New: Kevin Warsh has tapped two outside associates as advisers—in as temporary contractors for now. Both are budget policy specialists, and …

15:29
Jun 02

@NickTimiraos

Bernanke reflects on the Powell Fed at a Brookings event offering early retrospectives On the wins: -“A terrific job defending the Federal R…

15:19
Jun 02

@NickTimiraos

Quarles on the Powell Fed at Brookings today, summing up panelists' point about how the historic run of episodes that Powell faced shapes hi…

14:24
Jun 02

@NickTimiraos

Private sector job turnover measures in April show that hiring rates ticked down as did layoff rates. But the job vacancy rate rose to 4.8% …

14:10
Jun 02

@NickTimiraos

It's one month in a noisy series, but job openings jumped in April, pushing up the 3-month moving average for the first time since last fall…

12:36
Jun 02

@NickTimiraos

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack says if recent trends continue, rate hikes may "soon" be appropriate “If we wait for definitive evidenc…

01:45
Jun 01

@NickTimiraos

@pineconemacro I also am not aware that supercore “ripped” after the Fed put more emphasis on it in late ‘22/early ‘23. It ground its way lo…

00:44
Jun 01

@NickTimiraos

This is a common read of the period but I think it gets the history backwards. By late 2022, goods inflation had rolled over and market-base…

00:34
Jun 01

@NickTimiraos

Powell: "If any administration finds a way to remove Fed officials over policy differences, then future administrations will do so as well."…

00:34
Jun 01

@NickTimiraos

Accepting an award for political courage, former Fed Chair Jay Powell names no president and spoke in lofty generalities. But he gets specif…

23:42
May 31

@NickTimiraos

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh wants to pay more attention to measures of inflation that strip out the most extreme price moves each month. Severa…

23:42
May 31

@NickTimiraos

The Dallas Fed trims more from the top of the price distribution than the bottom. That asymmetry made it late to identify the 2021 surge. Ot…

13:04
May 30

@NickTimiraos

The idea that forward guidance began in 2008 is not accurate. The Fed didn’t tell anyone if it had changed rates at its policy meetings unti…

19:31
May 29

@NickTimiraos

Bessent is asked if there’s going to be pressure put on the Fed. He says it’s much better to come in to the Fed now after an interval of ris…

19:28
May 29

@NickTimiraos

Bessent: The food is better at the Fed because they don’t have a budget. “We are going to see a new sheriff in town.” He says Warsh is going…

16:00
May 29

@NickTimiraos

This is a fascinating pair of questions about public attitudes towards inflation and interest rates: The group that identifies as the most c…

22:31
May 28

@NickTimiraos

St. Louis Fed Alberto Musalem observes that with inflation rising, the Fed’s real policy rate is now “sitting below the FOMC’s notion of lon…

17:00
May 28

@NickTimiraos

@ernietedeschi @Dell Is this an argument for trimming software and computer accessories from the price basket?

14:12
May 28

@NickTimiraos

One reason the U.S. doesn't have large-denomination notes is that big bills make it easier to move and hide large amounts of cash. The large…

13:16
May 28

@NickTimiraos

@7thGeneration3 No, core goods excludes food and energy items. Goods also would exclude fuel-sensitive services such as airfares.

13:05
May 28

@NickTimiraos

Shelter prices were firm in April, up 0.53%, pushing the 12-month change to 3.2% from 3.0% in March. This measure was at 4.2% in April 2025.…

13:01
May 28

@NickTimiraos

Looking at the components of core PCE in April Core goods prices rose 0.3% on the month (3.7% annualized rate) and were up 2.8% from a year …

12:54
May 28

@NickTimiraos

Headline PCE prices rose 0.40% in April, or 4.9% annualized. The 3-month and 6-month annualized rates were 6% and 4.8%, respectively. The 12…

12:51
May 28

@NickTimiraos

Core PCE prices rose 0.24% in April. While that was the mildest m/m price gain in the index in five months, it still annualizes to 2.9%. The…

10:17
May 28

@NickTimiraos

Lagarde: "When the Chair of the Federal Reserve publicly defended the institution’s independence, the ability to contain political pressures…

23:34
May 27

@NickTimiraos

Updated table with a couple of revisions/additions: Based on the CPI and PPI, forecasters anticipate the core PCE rose 0.28% in April. This …

20:00
May 27

@NickTimiraos

Cook: “In my baseline forecast, disinflation should resume in upcoming months without having to raise rates….” “…I am prepared to raise rate…

13:57
May 27

@NickTimiraos

Based on the CPI and PPI, forecasters anticipate the core PCE rose 0.28% in April. This would lift the 12-month rate to 3.3%, the highest si…

17:02
May 26

@NickTimiraos

@SamuelRines https://t.co/C0XvWwioYe

00:13
May 24

@NickTimiraos

Navarro counsels against rate hikes (illustrating how the dovish position has changed): “Now we hear the rate hike drums beating louder from…

21:20
May 23

@NickTimiraos

@crowleymjp Is the hypothesis there that strong demand from the AI buildout/market mania-wealth effects would support stronger activity and …

11:27
May 23

@NickTimiraos

@mtkonczal @oren_cass @WSJ https://t.co/nUXB92dVjI https://t.co/E7jllm6sDF

20:47
May 22

@NickTimiraos

Trump plugs the housing legislation but then says what really matters is getting lower interest rates: “Housing’s all about interest rates.”

18:12
May 22

@NickTimiraos

https://t.co/jELtjj0YHo

17:46
May 22

@NickTimiraos

Key moments from Kevin Warsh's swearing-in at the White House: 1. Trump tells Warsh to be "totally independent." "Don't look at me. Don't lo…

17:38
May 22

@NickTimiraos

@MayankSeksaria @briangobosox Good point. If the price shock goes away, demand is even stronger.