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11:45
Apr 16
@NickTimiraos
There was a dispute in 1978, when Arthur Burns's term expired. Carter designed Burns as the acting chair, with his DOJ arguing that the pres…
11:41
Apr 16
@NickTimiraos
Roberts wrote the memo in 1983 for the Reagan White House amid questions over whether to renominate Volcker. “The President cannot appoint …
11:30
Apr 16
@NickTimiraos
If no chair is confirmed by May 15, who leads the Fed? The Fed and the White House seem to have very different answers—a suddenly live disp…
00:00
Apr 16
@NickTimiraos
The lede to this profile of Pirro by my colleagues suggests Trump was aware of the probe on Jan. 9 even though he told NBC on Jan. 11 that h…
18:11
Apr 15
@NickTimiraos
This comment from Kevin Hassett to Axios is the first time I've seen someone from the administration tie the Fed probe to the president in a…
16:21
Apr 15
@NickTimiraos
Kevin Warsh's Fed confirmation hearing is in six days. The biggest obstacle to his confirmation is a criminal investigation cheered on by th…
14:24
Apr 15
@NickTimiraos
Trump tells Bartiromo he doesn't want to drop any Fed probe because he thinks the cost overruns need to be examined. He says Tillis's threa…
12:10
Apr 15
@NickTimiraos
A potential third courtroom battle looms between Trump and the Fed. The administration has so far not succeeded on its subpoenas or firing o…
10:38
Apr 15
@NickTimiraos
Bessent on shrinking the balance sheet: "It is very difficult to get to a much smaller balance sheet from here.... I think it will be a long…
10:35
Apr 15
@NickTimiraos
Bessent to WSJ's Paul Gigot: "The Fed has been wrong on inflation and the core inflation is coming down, but I understand if they want to wa…
03:25
Apr 15
@NickTimiraos
Tillis responds
23:25
Apr 14
@NickTimiraos
NEW: Prosecutors from U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro’s office showed up unannounced Tuesday at the construction site for the Federal Reserve’s …
16:45
Apr 14
@NickTimiraos
Bessent says the Fed is right to wait and see how the economy handles the Iran shock but expects it will not seep into inflation expectation…
16:22
Apr 14
@NickTimiraos
Tillis, asked whether there was an accommodation that could secure his vote, said, “It’s called either prove to me you have evidence beyond …
16:19
Apr 14
@NickTimiraos
Tim Scott told @MariaBartiromo this morning that the hearing will be next week and he expects the DOJ probe to wrap up "in the next several …
16:19
Apr 14
@NickTimiraos
The disclosures (which Warsh appears to have signed in February) reflect new urgency around his confirmation. If the Senate Banking Committe…
16:11
Apr 14
@NickTimiraos
Warsh investments include stakes in firms whose holdings can't be disclosed due to preexisting confidentiality agreements. Among the stakes…
15:19
Apr 14
@NickTimiraos
Kevin Warsh, President Trump's choice to lead the Federal Reserve, disclosed a sprawling set of financial interests worth more than $100 mil…
00:16
Apr 14
@NickTimiraos
Economists at the Dallas Fed try to model the effects on PCE inflation of a one-, two-, or three-quarter disruption of oil shipping through …
22:27
Apr 13
@NickTimiraos
Sorry, I don't understand what point you are trying to make by sharing that chart. The losses on that chart accumulate, but the gains don't.…
22:11
Apr 13
@NickTimiraos
@sidprabhu Correct. Here's the marked to market projections using those same scenarios https://t.co/6Pa52dnB9O
18:50
Apr 13
@NickTimiraos
The New York Fed's annual report, released today, shows that under most scenarios, the central bank will return to positive net income this …
19:57
Apr 10
@NickTimiraos
@sidprabhu Of course, that's not really what he said. To quote his words: "I tip my hat to the Fed. They have engineered a soft landing. You…
16:43
Apr 10
@NickTimiraos
Fed economists estimate that the tariffs in place through Nov 2025: -Raised core goods prices by 3.1% through February (i.e., all of last y…
14:26
Apr 10
@NickTimiraos
Preliminary forecasts, which could shift after the March PPI comes out, have the core PCE for March printing above 0.2% and rounding down or…
14:03
Apr 10
@NickTimiraos
@sidprabhu https://t.co/a5gYirNqmY
14:02
Apr 10
@NickTimiraos
@lisaabramowicz1 At the beginning of 2024, Michele called for 250 bps in cuts that year. The Fed ultimately did 175 over the coming two year…
13:17
Apr 10
@NickTimiraos
Your confidence in looking through a shock depends in part on your view of the stability of inflation expectations. Here's then-governor Kev…
13:13
Apr 10
@NickTimiraos
"Oil and the Economy," by governor Ben Bernanke, October 21, 2004 https://t.co/TuYT0cmhq3
13:12
Apr 10
@NickTimiraos
For a thorough answer to this question, I would highly recommend reading Bernanke's 2004 speech on this subject. Especially this part: "The…
12:53
Apr 10
@NickTimiraos
Core CPI was a bit softer than expected, at 0.196% in March. Still, one month doesn't settle too much. The Fed will want to see energy pri…
21:08
Apr 09
@NickTimiraos
The Dallas Fed trimmed mean inflation gauge suggests firm February PCE inflation reflected larger increases in a smaller subset of items. T…
20:46
Apr 09
@NickTimiraos
Source: https://t.co/i9cVUwzgj4
20:46
Apr 09
@NickTimiraos
It's a low churn labor market ... but ... The wage premium for job changers that disappeared in 2024 appears to have returned. Wage growth…
20:11
Apr 09
@NickTimiraos
Kevin Hassett tells @MariaBartiromo the inflation from the oil-price shock will be temporary and should allow the Fed to continue cutting in…
18:26
Apr 09
@NickTimiraos
@Alex_Raffol @BobEUnlimited As far as measured inflation goes, housing isn’t the issue anymore.
18:21
Apr 09
@NickTimiraos
@Alex_Raffol @BobEUnlimited Since the mid 1990s, goods inflation has hovered around zero. To achieve 2% inflation with goods inflation at 2%…
14:53
Apr 09
@NickTimiraos
The wedge between core goods in the CPI (very mild) and PCE (very high) in February is due to the "computer software and accessories" catego…
14:48
Apr 09
@NickTimiraos
@George_Saghir @DannyDayan5 Yes, but from the stand point of "Three straight months of 0.4%," the revision to December changes (falsifies) t…
13:48
Apr 09
@NickTimiraos
On a 3-month annualized basis, core goods prices were +6.5% as of February, the highest since the same month in 2022. On a 6-month annualiz…
13:43
Apr 09
@NickTimiraos
By contrast, core PCE services excluding housing was much better behaved in February (+0.22%), lowering the 12-month change to 3.2%. That's …
13:37
Apr 09
@NickTimiraos
Core PCE was firm in February because of goods. Goods inflation was +0.84%, a huge month-over-month increase (10.6% annualized) and the lar…
13:11
Apr 09
@NickTimiraos
Headline PCE inflation was 2.8% for the 12 months ended February and was +0.38% on the month (4.6% annualized rate). The 3-month annualized…
13:05
Apr 09
@NickTimiraos
@DannyDayan5 It doesn't really change your point, but I'm seeing 0.327% for December (revised today given the most recent PPI revisions). Th…
13:04
Apr 09
@NickTimiraos
To put these numbers in context: The 12-month rate of core PCE inflation had been as low as 2.6% in April 2025. The 6-month annualized rat…
13:02
Apr 09
@NickTimiraos
The core PCE index rose 0.37% in February and was up 3.0% on the year. The six-month annualized rate was 3.4%, which was the highest since …
19:14
Apr 08
@NickTimiraos
https://t.co/Jk7MPdAetK
18:18
Apr 08
@NickTimiraos
The Fed minutes showed "the vast majority" of officials thought inflation progress could be slower than expected, driven by three overlappin…
17:00
Apr 08
@NickTimiraos
@KrishnaRSGuha @TimDuy I guess I started from the place that a hike was being overrated to begin with (in the U.S. at least).
15:44
Apr 08
@NickTimiraos
Even if the conflict had never happened, the door to Fed cuts was already narrowing. The labor market held up better than expected and infla…
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MED