NickTimiraos 5.0 68 ideas
After 1 day
63%winrate
+0.0% avg
17W / 10L · 27/47 ideas
After 1 week
45%winrate
+0.1% avg
13W / 16L · 29/47 ideas
After 1 month
54%winrate
-2.5% avg
21W / 18L · 39/47 ideas
By sector
ETF
51 ideas
+0.8%
currency
11 ideas
-1.6%
Crypto
2 ideas
-29.1%
Stock
2 ideas
-26.4%
Commodity
1 ideas
index
1 ideas
Top tickers (by frequency)
TLT
35 ideas
89% W
+2.1%
USD
10 ideas
33% W
-1.6%
SPY
7 ideas
20% W
-1.8%
QQQ
7 ideas
20% W
-1.6%
ETH
1 ideas
0% W
-34.2%
Best and worst calls
Best calls
USD SHORT
+5.3%
1. THE FACT: Trump explicitly stated that lowering interest rates immediately is a "litmus test" for the new Fed chair.
...
Dec 09
TLT SHORT
+4.2%
The Fed contains a more hawkish contingent than the market perceives, viewing future rate hikes and cuts as equally prob...
Feb 18
XLF SHORT
+3.8%
A potential executive order forcing banks to collect citizenship data would likely increase compliance costs and operati...
Feb 24
Worst calls
ETH LONG
-34.2%
1. THE FACT: World Liberty Financial, the Trump family’s flagship crypto venture, has applied for a national banking lic...
Jan 08
FMCC LONG
-28.7%
1. THE FACT: Trump is using authorities granted by the 2008 conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that allows th...
Jan 08
BTC LONG
-24.1%
1. THE FACT: World Liberty Financial, the Trump family’s flagship crypto venture, has applied for a national banking lic...
Jan 08
The Fed is less likely to cut rates due to a resilient labor market and sticky inflation, putting downward pressure on bond prices.
TLT
HIGH
Apr 08, 15:44
A ceasefire removes a key catalyst for emergency Fed cuts while leaving inflation risks elevated, creating a hawkish tilt for monetary policy and bearish pressure on bonds.
TLT
MED
Apr 08, 15:43
Fed Governor Waller explicitly states a hawkish pivot from being ready to support a rate cut to now being concerned about inflation, making near-term cuts less likely and putting upward pressure on long-term yields.
TLT
HIGH
Mar 20, 12:41
The author, a well-regarded Fed watcher, suggests the central bank's rate-cutting cycle is likely to end due to persistent energy price inflation, which is bearish for long-duration bonds.
TLT
HIGH
Mar 19, 10:29
The Fed is likely to adopt a more hawkish-than-expected stance at its upcoming meeting by not signaling imminent rate cuts, which would be negative for long-duration bonds.
TLT
MED
Mar 17, 01:30
A notable figure (Bessent) believes the current oil price spike from geopolitical risk is overblown and that prices will revert lower than what is currently priced in by the futures market.
USO
HIGH
Mar 16, 13:46
The author expects inflation to remain sticky in the near term due to unfavorable base effects from the prior year, which would be bearish for long-duration bonds.
TLT
MED
Mar 11, 23:44
Fed Governor Waller signals a hawkish stance, expecting hot PCE and suggesting the Fed will wait to cut rates if the labor market remains strong, which is bearish for bonds (implies higher yields).
TLT
MED
Mar 06, 12:42
A key Fed official (Kashkari) is turning more hawkish due to inflation risks from a war-related commodity shock, reducing the likelihood of rate cuts and putting downward pressure on bond prices.
TLT
HIGH
Mar 03, 21:22
The market is likely mispricing Fed policy by focusing on alternative inflation data (Truflation) while the Fed's official target (PCE) remains elevated, suggesting dovish reactions to non-PCE data should be faded.
TLT
HIGH
Mar 03, 16:54
Analysis of underlying inflation components projects a hot PCE number, which would pressure the Fed to remain hawkish, leading to higher yields and lower bond prices.
TLT
HIGH
Mar 02, 14:53
A potential executive order forcing banks to collect citizenship data would likely increase compliance costs and operational friction, creating a short-term headwind for the financial sector.
XLF
MED
Feb 24, 19:34
Continued strong economic data raises the probability that the Federal Reserve will project fewer rate cuts in 2026, which is a hawkish development and bearish for long-duration bonds.
TLT
MED
Feb 23, 14:12
The Fed is unlikely to cut rates in the near future based on the latest GDP/PCE data, which should keep yields elevated and put downward pressure on long-duration bond prices.
TLT
HIGH
Feb 20, 14:15
A key Fed watcher is signaling a less dovish path for rate cuts (100bps vs 150bps previously) due to firm labor and inflation data, which implies higher rates for longer and is bearish for long-duration bonds.
TLT
HIGH
Feb 19, 17:44