Daily Alpha · Reddit
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Reddit commenters argued over Lam after its print, flagged Meta's falling operating income and negative cash flow, and noted that GME warrant holders face a 23 October Computershare deadline.
Themes on this desk
Meta print
A commenter flagged Meta's 37% drop in operating income and negative cash flow, and argued the Class C shares mean dilution without Zuckerberg losing control.
Lam reaction
One commenter called for puts, citing Lam and saying semis are crashing, another said the earnings looked good and the market is overreacting, and a third would buy Lam at $245.
GME warrants
Computershare GME warrant holders must give selling instructions by 23 October 2026, ahead of the 29 October trading stop.
Highest engagement
by score · day changeAn AMD bull modeled $133 billion of revenue from MI455X and Venice volumes
The author put MI455X at $28,000 times 1.5 million units, or $42 billion, Venice at $8,000 times 7 million, or $56 billion, and $35 billion for everything else, implying $133 billion of revenue and a path to a $2 trillion market cap on sold-out capacity into 2028.
MI455X = $28,000 x 1.5m = $42B Venice = $8,000 x 7m = $56B Everything else= $35B $133B revs Sold
The model rests on MI455X and Venice unit volumes and sold-out capacity.
Source →A post argued Amazon is buying Nvidia GB300 racks it cannot yet power
The author argues Amazon is taking delivery of billions of dollars of Nvidia GB300 racks it cannot yet power, worsening free cash flow and putting its AI capital-conversion returns under scrutiny.
Amazon’s Dark GPUs Expose AI’s Hidden Infrastructure Cost The company is purchasing billions in Nvidia server racks it cannot power,
Unpowered hardware delays returns on capex.
Source →Micron and Nvidia drive 36% of the S&P 500's projected Q3 earnings growth, a post noted
The author notes Micron and Nvidia account for 36% of the S&P 500's projected 27% third-quarter earnings growth and asks whether AI demand carrying the market is sustainable.
S&P500: Where is Q3 earnings growth coming from? The S&P 500's Q3 growth is riding on just two names.
Index earnings growth is concentrated in two names.
Source →A post questioned why Musk would want a $480 Tesla merger valuation
The author challenges the bullish Tesla merger-premium narrative, arguing Musk's larger SpaceX exposure may favor a lower Tesla valuation, with weak earnings as a potential catalyst.
TSLA earnings: Why assume Musk wants a $480 Tesla merger valuation?
It questions the assumption that a merger premium accrues to Tesla holders.
Source →A holder made the case for Brightstar Lottery's buyback and 9.5% dividend yield
The author is heavily long Brightstar Lottery, citing an active $500 million buyback, a completed Italian Lotto license payment that should improve EPS and a dividend yield of about 9.5%, with dividend sustainability as the main risk.
Brightstar Lottery: the stock I am balls deep into now (BRSL) $BRSL, currently trading at $9.3, with $1.74B market cap,
The thesis depends on the dividend holding.
Source →Most argued
by comments per upvoteNifty FMCG is down 21.19% this year, its worst year on record
The author notes Nifty FMCG's record 21.19% year-to-date decline and its first convincing break of the 50 EMA since 2004, attributing it to inflation, weak rural demand and reduced disposable income.
FMCG is having its worst year ever: -21.19% YTD. Your take?
It points to pressure on Indian consumer spending.
Source →A post argued StubHub is a short
The author argues StubHub is a short because of large losses, a weak balance sheet, poor customer service, complaints, lawsuits and regulatory scrutiny.
STUBHUB (STUB) is a short STUB is only public for 13 months.
The bear case combines balance-sheet and legal risk.
Source →An Indra holder cited backlog growth and a swing to net cash
The author is long Madrid-listed Indra, citing backlog growth, strong defence intake and a swing to net cash.
long Indra (Madrid listed) so biased, but its the backlog for me.
Backlog is the author's main reason to hold.
Source →An AST SpaceMobile holder laid out a direct-to-cell bull case
The author is bullish on AST SpaceMobile, citing satellite deployment, telecom partnerships and defense use cases, acknowledges launch, spectrum and Starlink competition risks, and discloses 402 shares.
ASTSpacemobile is the future of Satellite connectivity - DD In this DD i will try to explain to you regards
The author names launch, spectrum and Starlink competition as risks.
Source →A post argued an AI-coded ServiceNow alternative threatens ServiceNow
The author argues ServiceNow is threatened because a friend built a close alternative with AI coding tools in eight months, and concludes the stock has topped.
ServiceNow is cooked A friend of mine has spent the last 8 months building a ServiceNow alternative using Claude Code
It is one more version of the AI-coding threat to SaaS.
Source →