Daily Alpha · X
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
X supplied the forecast disagreement inside the AI bull case, the inflation-measure debate behind the rate path, the refined-products call change, and unusual short-dated positioning in memory.
Themes on this desk
Rate-path repricing
Markets priced three additional hikes by end-June 2027 the morning after the Fed moved, and the median sell-side forecast still sees one more hike with views split between October and December.
AI leadership rotation
The AI Beneficiaries Index relative to the AI At Risk Index has fallen 46% from its late-2025 peak, and one Brookfield executive says the alpha has shifted to cheap Mag 7 names reaping returns on their capex.
Hormuz escalation
Two IRGC tanker attacks and an Iranian statement that the strait stays closed sit against reports that Saudi Arabia restored about half its East-West pipeline capacity.
Ticker heat
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Top voices by smart followers and alpha score
Market Radar →Bianco: core PCE at 3.3% and rising makes the hike appropriate
Bianco Research argues the Fed targets PCE, not CPI, and that core PCE at 3.3% and rising supports the hike, pushing back on the CPI-based framing that inflation is cooling.
It is now 3.3% and rising, as they started hiking. Viewed this way, hikes look more appropriate.
The CPI-versus-PCE divergence is the crux of the dovish counterargument; if PCE is the operative gauge, the hike is defensible and the easing trade is premature.
Watch Next core PCE print and whether it continues rising toward or above 3.3%, plus any Fed commentary endorsing the PCE framing.
Source →Gerstner calls SemiAnalysis 43GW forecast too aggressive, sees 25GW
Gerstner explicitly disagrees with SemiAnalysis' 43GW next-year forecast, putting his own estimate at 25GW with roughly half attributable to OpenAI and Anthropic.
next year too aggressive. Brad thinks 25GWs (1/2 of that is for OpenAI/Anthropic) -10 year going to 5.5% would be
A materially lower power/capex number from a major AI bull is a direct downside risk to power, electrical equipment and data-center supply-chain estimates built on the higher figure.
Watch Which GW figure actual 2027 interconnect queues, utility disclosures and hyperscaler capex guidance converge toward.
Source →CoreWeave pricing up 25% in July with 5-10pt margin improvement on new contracts
PhotonCap notes CoreWeave raised pricing 25% in July and newer contracts show 5-10 percentage point margin improvement, but utilization and returns remain execution-dependent amid rising debt service costs of $860-940M expected in Q3.
- Pricing rose 25% in July and newer contracts show 5-10 percentage point margin improvement, but utilization and returns remain
Rising pricing and contract margins would evidence genuine supply scarcity in AI compute, but the offsetting debt-service burden means the equity case hinges on utilization, not headline pricing.
Watch Whether the 25% price increase holds in subsequent months and whether Q3 debt service of $860-940M is covered by operating cash flow.
Source →Micron short-dated call buying read as pre-catalyst signal
@bubbleboi argues that no one would spend $50M on 15-day expiry Micron calls unless a major catalyst is coming, and frames the market's reaction to the Periodic Labs announcement as evidence investors are hunting for the next AI leap beyond coding.
No one’s punting 50M in 15 day expiry calls on Micron unless there is something big coming… What could that
Large short-dated call premiums in MU imply event risk being priced before any public disclosure; if the catalyst is real, memory names could re-rate sharply, and if not, the premium decays fast.
Watch Confirm the $50M 15-day MU call print in options data and whether MU makes a directional move within the expiry window.
Source →Goldman shifts to long European gasoline for mid-2027 as refiners switch output
The quoted Goldman Sachs note says refiners switching output from gasoline to diesel is rapidly tightening gasoline markets, prompting the bank to close an earlier diesel timespread call and recommend a long position in European gasoline for mid-2027, citing more resilient demand and stockpile shifts.
so-called timespreads, and recommended a long position in European gasoline for mid-2027, the analysts wrote.
A specific dated long recommendation from a major bank on European gasoline is a falsifiable directional call that can be tracked against the mid-2027 contract and against refinery yield behavior.
Watch European gasoline mid-2027 futures performance versus the entry level, and whether refiners continue shifting yield toward diesel.
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