Daily Alpha · YouTube
· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Who was talking 53 videos · 9 channels
Global duration
1 video · 1h 35mUS and European sovereign yields are repricing together, with a crowded short creating reversal risk around central-bank and Gulf catalysts.
Becker: market underpricing the hiking cycle—history shows ~190bp average, only ~95bp priced
Nicholas Becker (Edmond de Rothschild CIO) argued the Fed rarely stops after one hike—since the 1990s hike cycles averaged ~190bp—while the market prices only ~95bp over the next year, so the market is under-predicting the real increase. He expects a hawkish FOMC that won't ease its 2% target, and sees inflation broadening beyond energy into food (El Nino, fertilizer shortages) plus shipping and refinery constraints, with Treasuries a recession hedge rather than a tactical buy at 5%.
AI infrastructure
2 videos · 1h 14mBroadcom and SpaceX describe persistent demand and concrete capacity plans, but financing and concentrated customers remain the weak links.
Tan: Broadcom targets $230B AI revenue and >$30 EPS in 2028
Hock Tan reiterates that on AI revenue alone — custom accelerators for six customers plus the associated networking — Broadcom believes it will hit $230 billion in 2028, and that this plus the existing non-AI software and semiconductor business will exceed $30 a share in earnings.
Terafab R&D fab targets useful output by end of next year, packaging already underway
Musk described a crawl-walk-run plan: an R&D fab being built at the Austin Giga Texas campus as a Tesla-SpaceX collaboration, with all equipment on order and 'something useful by the end of next year,' while noting packaging capacity is 'non-existent' and SpaceX is already doing packaging.
China bifurcation
1 video · 1h 32mAI exports and industrial production carry growth while retail sales, property and nominal demand remain weak.
China's August retail sales missed by half while industrial production beat even the highest estimate, cementing the bifurcated economy
August activity data showed retail sales at 0.4%, half the median estimate, with year-to-date retail growth of about 1% effectively flat, while industrial production came in at 5.2% versus a 4.8% estimate and above even the highest forecast. Property investment stayed in double-digit contraction near 20% and property sales year-to-date were down 13%, with new home prices falling 0.17% month-on-month in the primary market and 0.31% in the secondary market. The show framed this as the industrial and export powerhouse continuing to carry the economy while consumption lags.
McKinsey finds roughly 30% of companies dropped at least one software product due to AI tooling
Kate Smaje confirmed that about 30% of companies in McKinsey's study decided to eliminate at least one type of software because of AI tools and enhancements, and advised software investors to take a hard look at their stack rather than panic, noting different software for different uses and the need to link tools with human workflows.