Daily Alpha · Substack
· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Accessible newsletter material focused on Rubin's power economics, HBM's role in DRAM scarcity and copper trade management.
Themes on this desk
Rubin economics
SemiAnalysis presents Rubin as a co-designed platform with large performance-per-dollar and profit-per-gigawatt claims.
Memory supply
Damnang links the conventional DRAM shortage to the rising share of wafers consumed by HBM.
Copper risk management
Rooster describes being stopped out of copper positions, buying back, and using a five-minute rule after gaps below stops.
SemiAnalysis claims first verified agentic inference results for Vera Rubin NVL72
SemiAnalysis states it is publishing the first verified agentic inference results for Nvidia's Rubin platform, measured on its own agentic inference benchmark, with the headline claim of 67x better performance per dollar.
If independently verified, a step-change in inference performance per dollar would strengthen the case for accelerated compute demand and pressure competing accelerator roadmaps on total cost of ownership.
Watch Whether the benchmark methodology, workload definitions, and baseline comparisons are published and reproducible by third parties.
Source →HBM share of DRAM wafers cited as cause of current DRAM shortage
The analysis argues HBM's share of total DRAM wafers continued to grow because chip designers keep adding HBM to accelerators for bandwidth and capacity, and that this growth created the current DRAM shortage.
If HBM wafer allocation is crowding out conventional DRAM, pricing power shifts to memory makers and cost pressure builds for PC, handset, and server DRAM buyers.
Watch DRAM contract pricing and conventional DRAM bit supply growth versus HBM wafer allocation disclosures from memory makers.
Source →Rooster author reports being stopped out of copper stocks and buying back
The author states he was stopped out of copper stocks and is buying back, while noting other positions were not stopped out.
A stop-out followed by re-entry indicates the author's copper thesis survived a volatility event, but the disclosure lacks names, sizes, or levels, limiting its usefulness as a signal.
Watch Whether the re-entered copper positions are named and whether copper price action validates the re-entry or forces another stop.
Source →