Daily Alpha · X
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
X consensus focused on oil supply disruption, fiscal/bond market conflict, AI infrastructure and photonics, and Apple's foldable launch.
Themes on this desk
Oil shock
Hormuz traffic suppressed, Mideast shut-ins rising, diesel record; EIA sees output below pre-conflict until Q2 2027.
Treasury/yields
Treasury tripled buyback to $6B but 10Y hit 4.85%; auction paid 4.834%, highest since 2007.
Photonics/AI compute
Goldman/Citi optical forecast upgrades and NBIS demand visibility to 2028 support AI infrastructure.
Ticker heat
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Top voices by smart followers and alpha score
Market Radar →Photonics supercycle thesis: lasers and optical fibers positioned as 'next HBM'
Aleabitoreddit cites Citibank TMT positioning lasers and optical fibers as the 'next HBM,' agreeing with Lightmatter/Citi. He highlights architectural shifts toward CW lasers ahead of consensus, with price hikes already seen at SIVE and LITE. He expects a 2027-2028 photonics supercycle similar to memory in 2025-2026, supported by Goldman Sachs' upgraded optical module market forecasts and increased optical content per GPU.
Citibank TMT: "lasers and optical fibers are being positioned as the "next HBM."
Suggests significant revenue growth for laser and fiber suppliers, potentially leading to re-rating if the supercycle materializes. Investors may look for exposure to CW lasers and optical components.
Watch Monitor earnings and channel checks for price hikes and capacity expansions at LITE, AAOI, SIVE, COHR, MTSI, GLW. Validate Goldman Sachs' optical module market forecasts and optical content per GPU increases.
Source →Lumentum sees laser supply-demand gap persisting through 2028
Lumentum's President of Global Business Units states laser supply will not catch up to demand for another couple years, with 2028 scale-up driving another 3-4x demand increase, keeping the gap open.
President of Global Business Units at Lumentum says laser supply will not catch up to demand for another couple years:
Persistent tight supply supports pricing power and revenue visibility for Lumentum and other laser suppliers, benefiting companies with capacity.
Watch Track Lumentum earnings, capacity expansion announcements, and customer orders for signs of supply catching up earlier than expected.
Source →Market fades iPhone Duo launch; analyst admits being wrong
Michael Sikand admits the market faded the new iPhone Duo launch, contrary to his earlier bullish expectation. He expresses disappointment that the device wasn't positioned as a productivity device with keyboard compatibility.
Market just faded the new iPhone Duo. I was wrong.
Suggests the market's negative reaction may stem from positioning concerns, potentially affecting Apple's near-term sentiment.
Watch Track Apple's stock price and analyst commentary on iPhone Duo demand following the launch.
Source →10Y yield above 4.85%, bond market fighting Treasury amid Iran War
US Treasury tripled long-term buybacks to $6 billion yet 10-year yields still rallied above 4.85%, up 15 bps from pre-announcement, nearing 5% as bond market fights Treasury amid Iran War.
This puts the 10Y Note Yield above 4.85% for the first time since November 2023, up +15 basis points from
Rising yields could pressure equities and increase borrowing costs, with potential for 10Y to exceed 5% if war continues.
Watch Monitor 10Y yield levels and any escalation in Iran conflict.
Source →EIA forecasts Middle East crude output below pre-conflict averages until Q2 2027
EIA expects crude oil output from the Middle East to remain below pre-conflict averages until Q2 2027, indicating prolonged supply disruption.
EIA expects Crude Oil output from Mideast will remain below pre-conflict averages until Q2 2027.
Suggests sustained upward pressure on oil prices and potential tailwinds for energy equities and oil ETFs.
Watch Monitor monthly EIA STEO reports for revisions to the recovery timeline.
Source →