Daily Alpha · X
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
X concentrated on physical AI constraints, memory scarcity and an unusually concrete debate around Anthropic's IPO mechanics.
Themes on this desk
AI power and funding
Independent posts converged on power access and permitted sites, while record Big Tech debt supply raised the cost-of-capital question.
Memory and packaging scarcity
Persistent memory deficits met a more granular view that HBM pin speed and packaging yield are becoming the scarce layers.
Anthropic IPO disagreement
Gavin Baker questioned ARR presentation, while other investors disagreed on whether the IPO would drain liquidity from listed AI leaders.
Ticker heat
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Top voices by smart followers and alpha score
Market Radar →Anthropic pre-IPO ARR accounting shift
Anthropic shifted to net ARR accounting and excluded Meta and Chinese distillation from its $65B ARR figure, likely to insulate valuation from potential Meta churn.
Anthropic shifted from gross to net ARR accounting and stripped out both Meta and Chinese distillation from their $65 billion
Strategic accounting changes ahead of an IPO can signal management's attempt to present a more resilient growth narrative to public markets.
Watch Monitor for ARR reacceleration leaks and competitive responses from OpenAI and Meta.
Source →HBM scarcity premium shifting to pin speed
The author argues that HBM scarcity is shifting from stack height to pin speed, as wafer consumption is increasingly driven by speed requirements rather than stacking layers.
Instead of stacking higher, I think a different dimension of scarcity will be emphasized: HBM's high pin speed.
Suggests that HBM supply-chain bottlenecks are evolving, potentially impacting the valuation of companies focused on high-speed memory performance.
Watch Monitor technical specifications for future HBM generations to confirm if pin speed becomes the primary performance differentiator.
Source →Macro fiscal constraints on US Treasuries
US interest and entitlement obligations now exceed 100% of federal receipts, creating a structural fiscal imbalance that limits the ability of the US to avoid inflationary outcomes or default-like pressures during economic downturns.
Fourth - US Interest + Interest-like obligations (Entitlements + VA) are already 105% of receipts, today, growing ~2x receipts...whenever they
This suggests that traditional safe-haven buying of US Treasuries during recessions may be impaired by fiscal deficits and foreign selling, potentially keeping long-term yields elevated.
Watch Monitor US deficit-to-GDP ratios and foreign holdings of US Treasuries during periods of market volatility.
Source →Structural memory supply deficit persists
The author argues that memory demand deficits remain significant (40-60%) and that structural imbalances in memory and photonics are being ignored by short-term sentiment.
- There’s some Japanese distributors in Nikkei today saying memory demand deficit has reached 40-60% (67-150% higher than supply).
Contrarian view suggesting that recent stock price drops in memory and photonics names are disconnected from fundamental supply constraints.
Watch Monitor memory pricing and hyperscaler capex updates.
Source →Nebius Group permitted power capacity thesis
The author argues that NBIS holds a competitive advantage due to its 4,086 MW of connected power capacity across land and permits, which is increasingly difficult for competitors to replicate as regulatory hurdles for data centers rise.
$NBIS has a valuable kind of capacity that rarely appears in a headline:
Suggests that NBIS's valuation should be driven by tangible, permitted infrastructure rather than speculative gigawatt targets.
Watch Monitor PPL-2025-0008 and subsequent transmission build-out milestones for the Pennsylvania project.
Source →