Daily Alpha · Substack
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Three substantive public letters linked the selloff to intact earnings, Korean leverage and crowded cross-asset positioning.
Themes on this desk
AI fundamentals
Asymmetrical Bets sees rising earnings estimates beneath the semiconductor drawdown and remains invested with explicit invalidations.
Korea leverage
Chamath's letter explains how new daily-reset single-stock ETFs reinforced the memory shock.
Cross-asset positioning
Offsides sees crowded equity longs but is looking for a turn in deeply underweight 10-year Treasuries.
Asymmetrical Bets sees a non-fundamental semiconductor drawdown
Asymmetrical Bets argues that semiconductors and memory fell while earnings estimates rose, making leverage and a pile-up of narratives more plausible drivers than a broken end-market cycle.
The letter offers a measurable bull case, but its historical comparisons and cited market figures are the author's analysis and were not independently re-audited here.
Watch Reassess if hyperscalers cut capex persistently, data-center orders collapse, or memory earnings estimates roll over.
Source →Korea's new single-stock ETFs amplified the memory shock
Chamath Palihapitiya's letter explains that Korea's new 2x single-stock ETFs add exposure after gains and cut it after losses, reinforcing volatility in Samsung and SK Hynix.
The mechanism links a structural memory thesis to a path-dependent ownership shock without treating the two as the same question.
Watch Watch leveraged-ETF flows, forced selling and the split between conventional memory pricing and Korean equity volatility.
Source →Offsides sees crowded equity longs
Offsides Macro says equities remain near upper-quartile positioning and is leaning toward shorts, especially in the consensus-overweight S&P and Dow.
The rebound begins with crowded positioning rather than a clean risk reset; this is a conditional lean, not confirmation of an executed short.
Watch Watch S&P breadth, follow-through volume and whether consensus positioning falls out of the upper quartile.
Source →