Daily Alpha · X
· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
FinTwit is heavily focused on the Jevons paradox in AI compute, specific infrastructure stock catalysts, and the macro implications of the Middle East escalation.
Themes on this desk
AI Compute Demand
Cheaper Chinese models are driving up total inference volume, benefiting neo-clouds.
Refining Assets
PADD 3 refiners are structurally advantaged by geopolitical supply constraints.
Top voices by smart followers and alpha score
Market Radar →Foxconn wins SpaceX AI server contract
Foxconn reportedly won a contract to manufacture SpaceX's next-generation AI servers using Nvidia GB300 chips, a project valued at approximately $52 billion.
FOXCONN HAS BROKEN DELL AND SUPERMICRO’S DUOPOLY BY WINNING ITS FIRST CONTRACT TO MANUFACTURE SPACEX’S NEXT-GENERATION AI SERVERS POWERED BY
The deal was not in previous revenue guidance, suggesting significant upside for Hon Hai's AI business momentum.
Watch Confirmation of revenue impact in upcoming earnings reports.
Source →Nvidia CMX storage system driving NAND demand
Nvidia's upcoming Context Memory Storage (CMX) system is projected to drive NAND demand from 35 million TB this year to over 100 million TB next year, with Samsung positioned as a key supplier.
The industry expects NAND demand associated with CMX to surge from 35 million TB this year to more than 100
Indicates a massive increase in AI-server NAND requirements, potentially benefiting major memory suppliers with high-yield production capacity.
Watch Monitor Samsung's V9/V10 production yields and Nvidia's CMX deployment schedule.
Source →Pentosh1 initiates long positions in AI and semiconductor-related stocks
Pentosh1 entered long positions in AAOI ($93) and NBIS (166.3) as long-term conviction holds, while taking tactical short-term positions in EWY and SNDK.
Again, there is opportunity in abundance > 🐧 (@Pentosh1) > Grabbed some $EWY at 155.52, $AAOI at $93, $NBIS at
Signals institutional-grade conviction in specific AI infrastructure plays despite broader market volatility and poor market structure.
Watch Exit of tactical positions (EWY, SNDK) within the week as a test of momentum.
Source →Refining sector PADD 3 asset advantage
TheValueist argues that owners of PADD 3 refining assets are well-positioned due to structural scarcity and accelerating crack spreads, exacerbated by ongoing geopolitical tensions in Iran and Ukraine.
Given what is happening in Iran and Ukraine, with no culmination in sight, I believe the owners of PADD 3
Suggests potential outperformance for refiners with high PADD 3 concentration, challenging the view that recent margins are merely temporary.
Watch Monitor crack spread trends and PADD 3 utilization rates for signs of sustained margin strength versus terminal value erosion.
Source →Jevons paradox in AI compute demand
The debut of efficient AI models like Moonshot's Kimi has led to surging usage that outpaces available GPU capacity, suggesting that lower inference costs drive higher aggregate compute demand rather than reducing it.
The cost per task may decline but the total number of tasks can increase significantly.
This supports a bullish thesis for data center and infrastructure providers, as the total number of AI tasks increases significantly when costs decline, necessitating more GPUs, memory, and networking capacity.
Watch Monitor capacity utilization rates for NeoCloud providers and ongoing capex expansion by major semiconductor foundries.
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