Daily Alpha · Substack
· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Long-form analysis focuses on macroeconomic stagnation risks and the quantifiable impacts of trade isolationism.
Themes on this desk
Macro Risks
UK economic stagnation serves as a warning for US policy and infrastructure execution.
Quantifiable impact of Brexit on UK economy
Research by Bloom et al. (2025) estimates that by the end of 2025, Brexit reduced UK GDP by 6-8%, investment by 12-13%, and productivity by 3-4% due to uncertainty and resource misallocation.
Highlights the high economic cost of disrupting established international trade markets, serving as a warning against protectionist trade wars.
Watch Observe US trade policy shifts; if the US pursues similar isolationist trade barriers, it may face comparable productivity drags.
Source →Escalation of Iran conflict and potential Hormuz disruption
Continued escalation in the Iran conflict suggests that difficulties in the Strait of Hormuz are likely to persist, potentially impacting global supply chains and inventories.
Persistent supply chain disruptions in a critical energy chokepoint could pressure global commodity prices and exacerbate inflationary risks.
Watch Monitor oil and shipping inventory data for signs of sustained supply constraints.
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