Daily Alpha · X
· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Traders identify specific thematic opportunities while questioning the broader AI infrastructure rally.
Themes on this desk
Thematic Stock Picks
Investors are finding value in niche plays like Gabler AG (defense) and Mandarake (collectibles) while avoiding anime production studios.
AI Infrastructure Skepticism
Despite strong TSMC earnings, market participants note the lack of positive price action, suggesting skepticism about the AI buildout's sustainability.
Top voices by smart followers and alpha score
Market Radar →Mandarake as a bullish anime-adjacent investment
The author identifies Mandarake as a bullish bet in the anime-adjacent sector, citing its exposure to collectibles, secondhand markets, and authentication services as growth drivers.
Mandarake is my more bullish bet in the sector (anime adjacent).
Provides a specific, non-obvious play on the collectibles boom that is not directly tied to the volatile anime production business.
Watch Monitor valuation multiples and growth in the authentication business segment.
Source →AST SpaceMobile announces $1B convertible note offering
ASTS announced a $1 billion convertible note offering, citing cash needs following a Blue Origin rocket failure, despite previous management comments that capital was not an issue.
Blue Origin's exploded rocket was a real setback for $ASTS and means that they will need more cash.
The dilution and perceived management inconsistency have negatively impacted sentiment, leading some investors to pause buying.
Watch Monitor management's ability to execute on growth targets without further dilutive events.
Source →AI infrastructure margin redistribution thesis
The commoditization of AI models is expected to shift economic value from frontier AI labs (with high inference margins) to cloud infrastructure providers that run high-volume token workloads at scale.
Margin dollars would effectively get redistributed from the frontier labs to AI infrastructure providers.
Suggests a long-term structural tailwind for hyperscalers and low-cost infrastructure providers as token prices collapse and demand increases.
Watch Monitor shifts in model market share toward cheaper, open-source, or efficient models versus flagship frontier models.
Source →Market skepticism persists despite strong semiconductor earnings
Despite strong earnings beats from ASML and TSM, both stocks have failed to rally, with TSM falling 4%, suggesting market skepticism regarding the sustainability of the AI buildout.
$ASML staying flat, and $TSM falling after such blowout earnings tells you a lot out about the current state of
The lack of positive price action following strong fundamentals may indicate that the market is 'priced for perfection' or rotating away from high-growth tech.
Watch Watch for further price action in semiconductor stocks during the remainder of the earnings season.
Source →Gabler AG investment thesis
The author argues that Gabler AG is a 'steal' in the low 40s, citing a derisked long-term thesis following Canada's 212CD submarine procurement selection, which doubles the production program for Gabler's mast technology.
Getting an opportunity to top up Gabler in the low 40s is a steal imo.
Highlights a potential underfollowed European defense play with a monopoly position in submarine antennae.
Watch Monitor contract announcements and cash-adjusted earnings multiples.
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