It's not 'buy low, sell high.' Now, not losing is more important than earning. | Hong Seonae, Jang Woojin, Geumsigong CEO [Yeouido Insight]

Summary

Geumsigong CEO Jang Ho-jin warns of high volatility driven by macro risks, oil supply threats, and upcoming FOMC/BOJ meetings. He advises reducing Korean equity exposure and raising cash to over 50%, while tactically trading semiconductors on dips. He is bullish on oil due to Middle East supply constraints and sees Samsung and Micron earnings as potential sell-the-news events.

• Market faces high macro uncertainty with a packed calendar of events (BOJ, FOMC, PPI, Micron earnings).
• Jang urges reducing equity exposure, raising cash above 50%, and using rallies to trim.
• Semiconductors are the favored leading sector; buy on sharp dips and take profits on bounces.
• Oil is flagged as a 'time bomb' — expected to stay elevated at $80–90 with risk of spike due to Middle East war and SPR drawdown.
• Samsung Electronics and Micron earnings risk becoming downside inflection points as good news is already priced in.
• If oil drops to $60, the cautious thesis would be invalidated and aggressive buying could resume.
• Emerging market stress and potential credit rating actions add to the cautious stance.