Oil, Yields Surge Again: How High Before Economy Collapses? | Josh Young

Summary

Josh Young, CIO of Bison Interests, discusses why oil prices are rising and argues the crude oil setup remains bullish due to Iran/Strait of Hormuz supply risk, low inventories, underinvestment, EIA data quality concerns, and high refining margins. He expects WTI could climb to $110-$120 without necessarily forcing higher pump prices, while dismissing the Venezuela deal as too small and slow to lower prices. The conversation also covers diesel/jet fuel shortages, European energy stress, and the Fed’s limited role relative to the oil shock.

• WTI crude has surged above $90 and Josh sees continued upside from Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Iran/IRGC escalation risk.
• He argues global oil is under-supplied by 5-10 million barrels per day and inventories are depleting.
• EIA failed to deliver its June oil report, which Josh says may indicate overstated inventory data and is supporting prices.
• He expects high refinery utilization to shift margin from diesel/gasoline/jet fuel into crude, allowing oil to rise without higher pump prices.
• He says the Venezuela oil deal is mostly propaganda and years away from adding meaningful supply.
• European natural gas, diesel, and jet fuel stress is reinforcing the oil setup but has negative economic implications.
• He does not see the Fed rate decision as the key driver compared with the oil supply shock.