Not sure attacking Iran gives U.S. a lot of leverage, says former CFR President Richard Haass

Summary

• Richard Haass hopes U.S. threats to attack Iran's civilian infrastructure (power plants, bridges) are merely for negotiation leverage.
• If executed, Iran would likely retaliate against Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait.
• Such retaliation could devastate the region's oil and gas production and refining capabilities, impacting global energy markets.
• An attack would not achieve U.S. objectives like opening the Strait of Hormuz or addressing nuclear issues.
• Instead, it would escalate into a wider, more destructive war with significant humanitarian costs.
• Europe is not in favor of this war, reducing international support and complicating diplomatic efforts.
• Iran is a resilient society, having endured a decade-long war with Iraq, suggesting it can withstand prolonged conflict.
• Attacking civilian targets raises war crime concerns, drawing parallels to actions by Vladimir Putin.
• Market implication: Heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East threatens oil supply stability and could increase price volatility.