Where Are Semiconductors, AI, and Space Headed Amid the Tense US-China Rivalry? | Jeon Byung-seo, Director of China Economic and Financial Research Institute

미중간의 팽팽한 경쟁구도 반도체·AI·우주는 어디로? | 전병서 중국경제금융연구소장 [글로벌 인터뷰]
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 27, 2026 at 23:05  |  37:07  |  3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
Speakers
Jeon Byeong-seo — Director

Summary

Jeon Byung-seo, director of the China Economic and Financial Research Institute, discusses China-US competition, China's policy-driven stock market support, and the outlook for Chinese tech, AI, semis, robotics, consumption, and the yuan. He argues Chinese equities and tech megacaps are becoming more attractive versus US megacaps, while Korean memory makers benefit from China's inefficient AI chip usage. He also sees China's robot supply chain, service-sector stimulus, and managed yuan appreciation as key themes for 2026.

  • China and US markets are in a consolidation phase ahead of China's March NPC and Chinese New Year.
  • China's AI chip inefficiency increases HBM and DRAM demand, benefiting Korean memory makers and supporting the KOSPI.
  • Beijing is channeling bank deposits into equities to fund strategic industries and support domestic demand.
  • China M7 outperformed US M7 over the past year, and the guest suggests moving some allocation toward China M7.
  • Chinese AI, AI chip, and robot companies are expected to IPO in large numbers in 2026.
  • China's robotics supply chain controls 57% of global robot components and could become a major theme.
  • China's consumer and service-sector stimulus, including elderly care, is aimed at reviving consumption.
  • The yuan is likely to appreciate in a managed range around 6.8, with 6.5 possible if 6.8 breaks.
Ideas
China chip inefficiency lifts Korean HBM demand.
China's Huawei AI chips require multiple accelerators to match one Nvidia chip, but each accelerator still needs the same HBM/DRAM content. As a result, China's domestic AI deployment requires far more DRAM/HBM than a comparable Nvidia-based system, tightening memory supply and benefiting Korean memory makers. This dynamic has driven the market since July and is a key variable for the KOSPI's move toward 5,000.
Yuan appreciation likely managed near 6.8.
The yuan's move below 7 is government-managed, not a free-market signal. Beijing is allowing controlled appreciation to support domestic demand, but it likely wants to keep USD/CNY near 6.8. If 6.8 breaks, about $250 billion of hoarded dollars could be sold and push the pair toward 6.5, though authorities will try to prevent a sustained slide.
China stimulus to revive consumption.
China's consumption fell to near-zero growth, so Beijing is treating it as an emergency and will use all available fiscal, monetary, and price measures to lift CPI and boost consumption. The 2026 policy focus is 'investment in people' and service-sector support for lower-income households, which should lift employment and disposable income.
China silver economy to expand.
China has one-fifth of the world's elderly population, and its 1960s baby-boom cohort saw 25-30 million births per year, creating a large retirement consumption wave. Government service-sector investment aims to make these older cohorts spend, making elderly care and the silver economy a major theme.
China real estate remains unattractive.
Chinese real estate remains difficult and has already halved, with little sign of a policy-driven recovery. Beijing is prioritizing equities and strategic industries instead, leaving real estate unattractive for now.
Policy redirects savings into Chinese stocks.
Beijing is deliberately channeling China's large household bank deposits into equities to activate domestic demand and fund strategic industries. After a four-year equity bear market, valuations are low, and policy support plus a technology-led re-rating and IPO wave should keep Chinese equities supported.
China AI chip IPOs to accelerate.
China plans to list AI and AI-chip companies en masse in 2026 to channel household savings into strategic technology, create national technology stars, and accelerate the US-China technology race. This IPO wave should support the Chinese AI chip sector and related suppliers.
Shift allocation toward China M7.
China's M7 basket returned 47.4% over the past year versus 38.7% for the US M7, after four years of underperformance. Chinese megacaps still have strong earnings and cash flow from traditional businesses and far lower AI capex than US megacaps, while policy is re-rating strategic technology. The guest suggests moving a portion of US M7 exposure toward China M7; US M7 faces AI overinvestment and cash-flow pressure.
Shift allocation toward China M7.
China's M7 basket returned 47.4% over the past year versus 38.7% for the US M7, after four years of underperformance. Chinese megacaps still have strong earnings and cash flow from traditional businesses and far lower AI capex than US megacaps, while policy is re-rating strategic technology. The guest suggests moving a portion of US M7 exposure toward China M7; US M7 faces AI overinvestment and cash-flow pressure.
China AI champions offer lower-capex exposure.
China has pursued AI since 2017 using a planned-economy approach, designating one champion company per strategic sector. This limits excess capex and preserves cash flow while allowing China to follow US AI advances with a time lag. The sector should benefit as China continues narrowing the AI gap.
China robotics supply chain set to scale.
China has more robot companies and faster iteration than the US, but only one is listed in Hong Kong, so a wave of IPOs this year could create a major theme. China supplies 57% of global robot components, has an ecosystem for mass production, and is indispensable to Tesla's robot supply chain. As listings arrive, Chinese robotics could become a theme as large as semiconductors.
Up Next

This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published January 27, 2026, features Jeon Byeong-seo discussing 005930.KS, 000660.KS, USD/CNY, CHIQ, China services sector, China elderly care/silver economy, China real estate sector, FXI, Chinese AI chip companies, China M7, BABA, TCEHY, 1810.HK, 1211.HK, 0981.HK, 0992.HK, 688256.SS, MAGS, Chinese AI stocks, China robotics sector. 11 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Jeon Byeong-seo  · Tickers: 005930.KS, 000660.KS, USD/CNY, CHIQ, China services sector, China elderly care/silver economy, China real estate sector, FXI, Chinese AI chip companies, China M7, BABA, TCEHY, 1810.HK, 1211.HK, 0981.HK, 0992.HK, 688256.SS, MAGS, Chinese AI stocks, China robotics sector