Ideas
Commonware wins scarce infrastructure wave
Value is accruing to scarce infrastructure that catches an adoption wave. Commonware is the blockchain infrastructure company Tempo chose despite having in-house chops, making it what Cosmos/ATOM should have been; it can power tokenization and neobank initiatives and is well positioned to be the infrastructure underneath distribution winners.
Canton benefits from Wall Street tokenization
Canton is benefiting from the Wall Street tokenization push because it speaks institutions' language and is trusted for tokenized securities; it can power the tokenization initiatives that traditional finance firms are finally launching.
Hyperliquid is a challenged blockchain-native juggernaut
Hyperliquid is a blockchain-native juggernaut and one of the businesses that would be impossible without blockchains' value-transfer innovation. But its strategy of operating as both an app and vertically integrated infrastructure is challenged over time; it likely needs to pick a direction.
Brokerages are crypto's short-term distribution winners
On a one-year horizon, all roads point back to the brokerages and exchanges—Coinbase, Robinhood, Kraken, and Binance—because they own distribution for tokens and yield products. They are becoming app stores for financial products, and the DeFi mullet works well as on-chain asset-management and structured products plug into their distribution. Crypto gets smaller before it gets bigger, so fewer companies work, but some work extremely well.
Coinbase/Robinhood win private-market access
Private markets are broken: companies stay private longer, LPs are illiquid, secondary volume is up 40-50%, and younger investors lack access to the best private companies. Coinbase and Robinhood are well positioned to create products such as pre-IPO perps and Robinhood Ventures to provide access to late-stage private companies; a major distributor getting exclusive high-quality supply could pull assets from traditional brokerages.
New L1 launches are overbuilt and avoidable
The industry overbuilt infrastructure and there is no market for a new chain; the barrier to entry on L1s has never been higher, and many infrastructure companies are just features. New L1 launches are therefore unattractive compared with using existing Ethereum/Solana or bridging infrastructure.
Established rollups win via flagship customers
New chains are struggling, but established L2/rollup infrastructure brands have derisked tech and can land flagship customers—Arbitrum got Robinhood, Optimism got Base, and Commonware got Tempo—which makes them better positioned to attract the next cohort of institutional adopters rather than building in-house.
Tempo is a one-year bullish bet
On a one-year horizon, Mike is super bullish on Tempo because it is a corporate/payments chain with momentum and strong positioning; it is one of the few corporate-chain launches that can work near term.
Ethereum and Solana are neutral L1 winners
The L1 is the only net-new innovation in crypto: a neutral, efficient way to move value with fewer intermediaries. Ethereum and Solana are the Visa-like neutral layers that everyone can build on without entrenching competitors; efforts to reinvent Visa with new chains will largely fail. Ethereum also should win the rollup market as corporate chains become rollups.
Tokenization is happening and investable
Tokenization is actually happening now: institutions are bringing real-world assets on chain, and while the trading, cross-border, legal, and political mechanics are still unclear, it is a major investable trend. The regulatory cycle may create new infrastructure winners for this.
Morpho wins via DeFi-mullet distribution
The big winners among smart-contract protocols are those that DeFi mullet: white-label and plug into other apps' distribution rather than trying to go up the stack. Morpho has taken this route and done really well, making it a strong expression of the distribution-leverage playbook.
Solana wins by focusing on RWAs
Xavier is relatively bullish on Solana for the first time in some time: it is surviving, bringing assets on chain, and positioning itself for the institutional/RWA wave by moving away from the memecoin cycle. Solana should focus on getting as many assets/RWAs as possible into its capital markets rather than trying to chase every narrative like agents.
Crypto token incentives are value-destructive
The crypto token economy is broken: tokens are too liquid, grant and incentive ROI is terrible, and an infrastructure has been built to extract and dump token supply, making even good projects go down only. Projects that avoid token-based spending and incentives would be in a better position.
This Bell Curve video, published July 14, 2026,
features Myles O'Neil, Mike Ippolito, Xavier
discussing Commonware, CANTON, HYPE, COIN, HOOD, KRAKEN, BNB, Robinhood Ventures, New L1 tokens, ARB, OP, TEMPO, ETH, SOL, Real World Assets (RWAs), MORPHO, Crypto tokens.
13 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Myles O'Neil,
Mike Ippolito,
Xavier
· Tickers:
Commonware,
CANTON,
HYPE,
COIN,
HOOD,
KRAKEN,
BNB,
Robinhood Ventures,
New L1 tokens,
ARB,
OP,
TEMPO,
ETH,
SOL,
Real World Assets (RWAs),
MORPHO,
Crypto tokens
