If everyone has moved to defensive stocks, that may be exactly when we're at the bottom | Park Se-ik, Executive Director & Chesley Investment Advisory

Summary

Park Se-ik and Choi Ho discuss contrarian market signals from fund manager positioning, noting that extreme defensive allocations and high cash levels have historically marked equity bottoms. They review global sector rotation, the 10-year Treasury yield near 5%, and the upcoming FOMC. The conversation covers memory semiconductor pricing strength, expected earnings rebounds, a potential post-Chuseok KOSPI recovery, and Samsung SDI’s solid-state battery leadership.

• Fund manager surveys show low hard-landing risk and a recent shift into defensives, which can be a contrarian bottom signal.
• Global fund managers are overweight equities, emerging markets, healthcare, banks, and IT, with September additions to insurance, energy, and industrials.
• The 10-year US Treasury yield near 5% is a key macro variable; a peak would depend on Middle East de-escalation and lower oil.
• A reported 30%+ Apple DRAM price increase supports memory prices and a semiconductor earnings rebound, especially by January.
• The FOMC is widely anticipated and may ease market anxiety, potentially supporting the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.
• Korean market sentiment is expected to improve after Chuseok and the FOMC.
• Samsung SDI is viewed as the leading solid-state battery stock due to earlier 2027 commercialization plans.