Trump Postpones Attacks on Iran's Energy Infrastructure

Summary

• The Iran war is "unbearably unpopular" with the American public, eroding support beyond the MAGA base and creating a major political problem for the President heading into the midterm elections.
• High gas prices, exacerbated by the conflict, have completely eliminated any positive "affordability agenda" narrative and will offset the economic boost expected from the prior year's tax legislation.
• Political odds are shifting; Democrats are now seen with a serious chance (∼50%) to take control of the Senate, a scenario considered unlikely just a month ago, with key races in Texas, Maine, and Alaska in play.
• The President's $200 billion emergency supplemental funding request for the Pentagon is massive (more than double the Iraq war request) and will take months to pass, likely not until September, creating a funding gap.
• Farmers are "in an incredibly bad way," facing higher costs from tariffs and disrupted trade, prompting the administration to work on a second bailout package (potentially $15 billion vs. a prior $12 billion).
• The President's tariff authority is currently constrained; planned increases to 15% under Section 122 have been paused because they are "taxes on consumers" opposed by farmers and manufacturers.
• New, unlimited tariff authority under Section 301 investigations against 60 countries could be granted by late May, but the speaker's thesis is the President lacks the political capital to impose them before the November election.
• The legislative agenda is congested with low-probability items (SAFE Act, cryptocurrency bills) and must-pass items like DHS funding, which has high odds of passage following recent transportation accidents.