Mideast War: Strikes Continue as Trump, Netanyahu Try to Ease Concern

Summary

• U.S. President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu made statements aimed at de-escalating attacks on energy infrastructure, with Netanyahu vowing no further strikes on Iranian energy facilities.
• Despite this political rhetoric, military strikes and counter-strikes between Israel and Iran continued overnight, including massive airstrikes in central Tehran and a refinery strike in Kuwait.
• The Iranian Foreign Minister warned that another hit on their infrastructure would result in a response with "zero restraint," indicating ongoing high tension.
• The cumulative damage to energy infrastructure is significant: Qatar Energy stated 17% of its capacity is offline and will take two years to recover.
• Multiple key gas fields in the UAE were taken offline, and refinery strikes have halted production accounting for roughly 2.5 million barrels per day in aggregate.
• The analyst argues the market has overemphasized the "flow" of individual strikes and underappreciated the "stock" of total damage sustained.
• The physical supply disruptions are a problem the region and world will have to grapple with for months or years, regardless of when the active conflict ends.
• The situation creates a clear and persistent risk premium for global energy markets due to physical supply constraints.