Oil at $100, Rates at 5% Storm, Bitcoin Trapped, What's the Next Direction? | Seo Dong-ju, Kim Dong-hwan, Lee Yun-su, CEO of Eric's Master Research Institute

Summary

Lee Yun-su, CEO of Master Research Institute, discusses the upcoming Fed meeting and the dilemma between fighting expected inflation and avoiding fiscal and AI-investment stress. He expects a hike and sees long-term Treasury yields structurally rising regardless. That keeps the debasement trade alive for gold and Bitcoin, supports oil and commodities on Iran-related supply risks, and leaves the dollar weak.

• Lee Yun-su expects the Fed to hike and sees one to two hikes by early next year.
• He argues long-term Treasury yields are structurally biased higher because of deficits, debt issuance, and term premium.
• The debasement trade remains intact, supporting gold and Bitcoin.
• Bitcoin has already priced in the expected Fed hike and faces upside pressure from rising long-term yields.
• Oil is likely to stay elevated as the U.S. uses economic blockade against Iran and tolerates high oil until midterms.
• Broad commodities and grains are supported by oil, diesel, and blocked Middle East fertilizer supplies.
• The dollar index is weak, reinforcing the debasement trade.