The 'last rate hike' is the real warning signal... in the stock market, only watch earnings | Hong Sun-ae, Park Seung-young, Hanwha Investment & Securities PLUS Asset Strategy Team Lead [Yeouido Insight]
"마지막 금리인상"이 진짜 경고 신호…증시는 오직 '실적'만 보세요ㅣ홍선애, 박승영 한화투자증권 PLUS자산전략팀장 [여의도 인사이트]
Speakers
Park Seung-young
— Portfolio Strategy Team Leader, Hanwha Investment & Securities PLUS Business Division
Summary
Park Seung-young discusses August markets, arguing that SK hynix buybacks and falling volatility supported KOSPI, and that the current market is earnings-driven rather than liquidity-driven, so investors should not fear mid-cycle rate hikes. He prefers US big tech over Korean semis near term, sees Korean semis as a September rebound candidate, and highlights rotation catalysts such as Hanmi Pharmaceutical and SK Innovation. He also discusses BOJ September risk, expects USD/KRW to rebound, and reiterates a 50:50 Korea-US equity allocation.
- KOSPI downside is supported by SK hynix buybacks and volatility has halved.
- Falling volatility favors covered-call strategies; rising volatility favors selective leverage.
- Rate hikes are seen as mid-cycle, so earnings, not rates, should drive decisions.
- Jackson Hole is interpreted as positive for continued AI investment.
- US big tech is favored over Korean semis for H2 AI monetization.
- Korean semis may rebound in September after August underperformance.
- BOJ September hiking decision is the key macro risk; skipping could spike USD/JPY.
- Maintain a 50:50 Korea-US equity mix and expect USD/KRW to rise.
Ideas
Park Seung-young
Portfolio Strategy Team Leader, Hanwha Investment & Securities PLUS Business Division
0:44
Buy KOSPI on volatility-spike support.
August KOSPI strength was mostly driven by SK hynix buybacks rather than Samsung Electronics, whose buyback will eventually go to stock compensation. Foreign selling is partly mechanical because foreign institutions trim positions to stay below the 5% disclosure threshold when buyback and burn raise their ownership, and they tend to return after the buyback is over. This is limiting KOSPI downside. VKOSPI has fallen from about 90 to 46, so volatility is compressing, but a future volatility spike could break KOSPI 6,000; Park sees that as a buy zone within a roughly 5,500-7,300 range.
Park Seung-young
Portfolio Strategy Team Leader, Hanwha Investment & Securities PLUS Business Division
5:31
Falling volatility favors covered-call strategies.
Volatility should be treated as a tradable variable, not just market background. With VKOSPI around 46 after halving from about 90, the current falling-volatility regime favors betting on lower volatility through covered calls. Conversely, when volatility expands, investors should selectively use leverage.
Park Seung-young
Portfolio Strategy Team Leader, Hanwha Investment & Securities PLUS Business Division
11:36
Powell's Jackson Hole supports AI investment.
Powell's Jackson Hole speech spent its first third on AI, arguing that the savings glut is gone because AI created investment opportunities, and that AI investment should raise productivity and restrain inflation. Park interprets the speech as laying positive groundwork for continued AI investment because the Fed chairman himself framed AI as productivity-enhancing and unlike the prior low-investment regime.
Park Seung-young
Portfolio Strategy Team Leader, Hanwha Investment & Securities PLUS Business Division
17:10
Focus on earnings, not rates.
The current market is earnings-driven rather than liquidity-driven, so rising rates are less dangerous than in a liquidity-driven market. In the middle of a rate-hike cycle, investors should focus on earnings, not fear rates. The first rate hike is a buy signal, the first rate cut is a sell signal, and the 'last rate hike' is the real warning that the economy is peaking. Because the Fed and Bank of Korea still signal possible further hikes, Park believes we are mid-cycle, not at the end. US earnings are stronger than Korea, while Korean consensus has been slower to rise, but equities should still be held on earnings momentum.
Park Seung-young
Portfolio Strategy Team Leader, Hanwha Investment & Securities PLUS Business Division
24:12
Watch BOJ hike; skip risks yen spike.
For September macro, BOJ is more important than FOMC. Japan's government is running loose fiscal policy and wants yen weakness, but markets are focused on excessive fiscal spending. With Japan's 10-year government bond yield near 2.9%, a move above 3% could raise carry-trade liquidation concerns. BOJ should hike to prevent overheating and further yen weakness. If BOJ skips, USD/JPY could spike and create problems, so watching whether BOJ hikes is the key volatility-reducing macro event.
Park Seung-young
Portfolio Strategy Team Leader, Hanwha Investment & Securities PLUS Business Division
27:22
Favor US big tech over Korean semis.
Since August, US big tech and the Philadelphia semiconductor index have diverged because the market is shifting from the AI investment cycle to the AI monetization cycle. Big tech is now expected to earn from AI after heavy investment, while semiconductors already had their investment-driven run. US big tech earnings consensus is better. For investors following the AI theme, adding US big tech or increasing US equity weight is attractive through the second half.
Park Seung-young
Portfolio Strategy Team Leader, Hanwha Investment & Securities PLUS Business Division
33:40
Hold Korean semis for September rebound.
August rotation was extremely strong, with semiconductors the only major underperformer through mid-August. September rotation should continue but with less intensity than August. SK hynix buyback finishing may allow foreign supply to return. Selling semiconductors now to chase other sectors does not look right, and after being the worst August performer, Korean semiconductors are a candidate to revisit in September.
Park Seung-young
Portfolio Strategy Team Leader, Hanwha Investment & Securities PLUS Business Division
34:55
Hanmi Pharma license-out boosts biotech.
In rotation trading, Park looks for beaten-down sectors with a specific catalyst. Biotech had fallen and needed a global big-pharma license-out. Hanmi Pharmaceutical provided that license-out catalyst, so biotech investment sentiment improved.
Park Seung-young
Portfolio Strategy Team Leader, Hanwha Investment & Securities PLUS Business Division
35:13
SK Innovation's ESS contract rally.
For battery-related rotation, if EV contracts are not coming, ESS contracts can serve as the catalyst. SK Innovation rallied because it announced an ESS contract, illustrating how a specific contract can trigger rotation in a beaten-down sector.
Park Seung-young
Portfolio Strategy Team Leader, Hanwha Investment & Securities PLUS Business Division
36:44
USD/KRW more likely to rise.
The won strengthened short-term due to hawkish comments and August corporate tax-related dollar inflows into Korea. Park expects USD/KRW is more likely to rise than fall from here as those flows fade.
Up Next
This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published August 31, 2026, features Park Seung-young discussing 000660.KS, VKOSPI, SMH, SPY, EWY, USD/JPY, US Big Tech, Korean Semiconductors, 128940.KS, 096770.KS, USD/KRW. 10 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Park Seung-young · Tickers: 000660.KS, VKOSPI, SMH, SPY, EWY, USD/JPY, US Big Tech, Korean Semiconductors, 128940.KS, 096770.KS, USD/KRW