If You're Impatient Now, You'll Lose Everything! Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix Still Have 'One Shot' Left — The Real Reason to Hold on (Stock Price Increase) HSL Partners CEO Lee Hyung-soo

Summary

Lee Hyung-soo, CEO of HSL Partners, discusses the memory and AI semiconductor cycle, focusing on Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. He argues that memory supply remains structurally tight until 2028, while shareholder return policies are the remaining catalyst for Korean memory stocks. He also examines Nvidia margin pressure, SK hynix HBM profitability, Samsung's turnkey and HBM4 foundry positioning, and advises medium-term accumulation over short-term trading.

• Memory prices now account for more than 30% of AI infrastructure capex, squeezing Nvidia's margin guidance.
• Memory supply may not meaningfully increase until new fabs produce wafers around H1 2028, with HBM die penalty worsening bit growth.
• Samsung and SK hynix shareholder return is described as the remaining 'one shot' to attract long-term foreign money and stabilize the market.
• SK hynix's HBM share declined from 85% to the 50s, but its HBM profitability remains superior due depreciation benefits and yields.
• Samsung's turnkey strategy is unique, but advanced 2.5D packaging remains the missing piece versus TSMC and Intel.
• HBM4 forces a foundry choice; Samsung's 4nm base die gives an advantage, but capacity allocation between foundry and HBM is critical.
• Lee advises medium-term accumulation in Samsung and SK hynix rather than short-term trading, with a potential retest of prior highs by next year first half.
• The next phase after agentic AI may be physical AI, supporting continued semiconductor demand.