INADIMPLÊNCIA RECORDE E FAMÍLIAS ENDIVIDADAS: EXISTE UMA CRISE DE CRÉDITO NO BRASIL?

Summary

Victor Schabbel, sócio da Ibiuna Investimentos, analyzes whether Brazil is entering a credit crisis after the second-quarter bank results. He argues that credit indicators look alarming at first glance, but part of the deterioration is distorted by regulatory changes and benign credit lines such as mortgage, payroll loans, and paid-in-full credit cards. His conclusion is that Brazil may face a crisis of some specific credit segments, especially agribusiness, rather than a systemic credit crisis like 2014-16.

• Bank Q2 results and credit headlines raised yellow flags in the Brazilian credit market.
• Brazil's credit/GDP is around 160%, with public debt near 70-80% and private debt near 90%.
• Household debt over income is about 50% and debt-service commitment is near 30%, both at historic highs.
• Personal delinquency above 90 days is at 5.6%, but regulatory write-off changes distort the metric.
• Shorter 15-90 day delinquency is near highs but comparable to 2016-2020 rather than unprecedented.
• Mortgage, payroll loans, and paid-in-full cards explain much of the debt growth and are less risky.
• Agribusiness credit grew sharply from 2021 to 2023 and is now facing a relevant hangover.
• The main takeaway is no systemic credit crisis yet, but specific credit segments warrant caution.