10-Year Treasury Yield Breaks Above 5%…AI Pace Adjustment Theory Spreads, Will Semiconductor Demand Be Okay? | Han Sang-hee, Senior Research Fellow at Hanwha Investment & Securities [Global Interview]

Summary

Han Sang-hee, Senior Research Fellow at Hanwha Investment & Securities, discussed the 10-year Treasury yield briefly breaking above 5%, rising Fed hike expectations, and the Fed's liquidity management. He argued that US equities remain resilient with an S&P 500 upside target near 8,200, that AI pace-adjustment fears are overdone for semiconductors, and that upcoming Micron and Samsung earnings are key for memory chips. He also covered midterm election risks, stablecoin regulation, and the strong Korean market rally.

• 10-year Treasury yield briefly topped 5%, a key level that could trigger algorithmic trades.
• Fed hike expectations rose to around 90% after in-line inflation data, but the guest questioned the need for a hike.
• Fed balance-sheet and liquidity changes may matter more than the FOMC rate decision itself.
• The guest sees US equities resilient with an S&P 500 upside target near 8,200.
• Micron and Samsung earnings are key catalysts for memory semiconductors.
• AI pace-adjustment fears were viewed as overdone for semiconductor demand.
• Stablecoin regulation was discussed, with skepticism that the Clarity Act alone would boost issuance.
• Korean equities have rallied sharply, but the guest did not give a clear forward call.