There won't be supply next year either, I'm telling you!" The decisive variable the market missed | Son In-jun feat. Kim Jang-yeol [Chipssul]

Summary

Eugene Investment & Securities researcher Son In-jun argues DRAM memory supply will stay severely short through 2026, driven by surging server demand, new AI devices, and HBM capacity constraints. HBM prices are expected to double next year, lifting Samsung Electronics and SK hynix earnings far above consensus. He also sees Micron’s upcoming earnings as a positive catalyst and recommends small-cap equipment maker YEST, entering the high-pressure cleaning market.

• DRAM shortage intensifying due to server demand, AI PC launches, and Apple’s supply pre-emption
• HBM prices set to at least double in 2026 as wafer value gap versus commodity DRAM narrows
• Samsung Electronics and SK hynix earnings estimates still too low; target prices 560,000 and 370,000 won respectively
• Micron poised for earnings surprise and guidance raise, with P/E re-rating toward 9x
• YEST wins patent dispute, enters high-pressure cleaning equipment market tied to DRAM 1d nm process adoption
• Capex and cash flow constraints at Big Tech may extend the memory upcycle but not derail it near term
• Potential uncertainty beyond 2027 if new NVIDIA architectures stabilize memory content, but near-term upgrades dominate