A buy signal occurred at the high point. Domestic market investment strategy seen through charts | Chesley Investment Advisory Executive Director Park Se-ik

Summary

Park Se-ik analyzes a rare KOSPI put/call ratio buy signal near all-time highs, examines foreign options positioning suggesting potential upside volatility, and reviews extreme market narrowness outside semiconductor leaders. He also outlines a macro scenario where upcoming Fed rate hikes could trigger corrections in August and September.

• KOSPI hits a new monthly high and a put/call ratio spike historically signals further upside, prompting a buy signal for futures or KODEX Leverage ETF.
• Foreigners have built heavy OTM call option positions, indicating bets on volatility expansion and a potential upside overshoot.
• Market breadth is very poor: Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix drive gains while most other stocks decline sharply.
• The speaker warns that chasing non-semiconductor stocks is a losing strategy in the current narrow market.
• Strong June CPI and employment data may force the Fed to hike rates in July, possibly triggering an August correction similar to 2024.
• A second rate hike in September/October could cause another 15% correction, though the prior -17% dip provides a cushion.