Bloomberg Surveillance: The Fed Decides 4/29/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  April 29, 2026 at 22:27  |  2:12:13  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Kate Moore — Head of Thematic Strategy, BlackRock
Jim Bianco — President, Bianco Research
Jeffrey Rosenberg — Senior Portfolio Manager, BlackRock

Summary

The Federal Reserve held rates unchanged with four dissents, the most since 1992. Chair Powell indicated he will stay on as governor, citing threats to Fed independence. Brent crude neared $120 and front-end yields rose. Guests discussed short duration, avoiding 2-year bonds, and long oil positions.

  • Fed leaves rates unchanged at 3.5-3.75% with 8-4 vote.
  • Three dissenters wanted to remove easing bias; one wanted a cut.
  • Powell says he will remain as governor until legal attacks on Fed are resolved.
  • Brent crude oil approaches $120 per barrel on Middle East tensions.
  • Front-end Treasury yields jump, 2-year at 3.93%.
  • Equities little changed, focus shifts to Big Tech earnings.
  • Guests express bearish view on 2-year bonds and short duration.
  • Oil forward curve suggests elevated prices through year-end.
Trade Ideas
Bob Michele CIO and Head of Global Fixed Income, J.P. Morgan Asset Management 37:00
Avoid 2-year Treasuries due to hawkish Fed.
Bob Michell advises against buying 2-year Treasuries because the Fed has shifted to a more hawkish stance, the economy still has stimulus, and the Middle East conflict remains unresolved, making the front end unattractive.
2-Year US Treasury Yield HIGH
Kate Moore Head of Thematic Strategy, BlackRock 42:02
Short duration as bonds not safe haven.
Kate Moore recommends being short duration because the correlation between bonds and equities has broken, and bonds are no longer the safe haven they once were, so risk should be taken on the equity side.
US Treasury Duration (via futures or ETFs) HIGH
Kate Moore Head of Thematic Strategy, BlackRock 43:30
Long U.S. large-cap equities.
Kate Moore remains anchored to U.S. large-cap equities, citing extremely strong earnings and free cash flow from large-cap parts of the market, despite dispersion below the surface.
SPY MED
Jim Bianco President, Bianco Research 122:14
Long oil, prices stay elevated.
Jim Bianco expects oil prices to stay elevated through year-end, as the December crude contract is making new highs and there is no resolution in the war, supporting a long position in crude oil.
USO HIGH
Jeffrey Rosenberg Senior Portfolio Manager, BlackRock 130:05
Buy front-end Treasuries for value.
Jeffrey Rosenberg sees value in buying front-end Treasuries after the recent yield move, citing that incoming Chair Kevin Warsh is likely to take a more dovish interpretation, making the front end attractive.
Front-End US Treasuries (2-year or 5-year) MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published April 29, 2026, features Bob Michele, Kate Moore, Jim Bianco, Jeffrey Rosenberg discussing 2-Year US Treasury Yield, US Treasury Duration (via futures or ETFs), SPY, USO, Front-End US Treasuries (2-year or 5-year). 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Bob Michele, Kate Moore, Jim Bianco, Jeffrey Rosenberg  · Tickers: 2-Year US Treasury Yield, US Treasury Duration (via futures or ETFs), SPY, USO, Front-End US Treasuries (2-year or 5-year)