Inside Wealth: Thiel Capital Managing Director Jack Selby on investment opportunities

Summary

Jack Selby, Managing Director of Thiel Capital, discusses AI as both a revolutionary technology and a massive bubble, warns that Middle East geopolitical risks to AI infrastructure are underpriced by markets, and criticizes venture capital industry dynamics and family office direct investing. He highlights Oracle as a specific company vulnerable to Middle East disruptions due to its high debt.

• AI is revolutionary but also a bubble that could incinerate huge amounts of capital.
• Chips depreciation is faster than assumed, challenging the picks-and-shovels AI thesis.
• Middle East supplies ~25% of AI infrastructure capex; disruption risk is underpriced.
• Oracle is cited as vulnerable due to high debt and exposure to Middle East projects.
• Venture capital is overconcentrated in CA, NY, MA; non-coastal deals are cheaper.
• Inflation is persistent and K-shaped, favoring luxury over budget businesses.
• Family offices are frustrated with VC and moving to direct investing, often via opaque SPVs.
• The market is too optimistic on AI, ignoring downside risks from geopolitical and capex factors.