Expecting stock market choppiness in 2026, says iCaptial's Basak

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 05, 2026 at 20:46  |  3:24  |  CNBC
Speakers
Dan Greenhaus — Chief Strategist, ICAP
Sonali Basak — Global Finance Correspondent, Bloomberg
Cameron Dawson — Chief Investment Officer, New Edge Wealth

Summary

On CNBC's Closing Bell, a panel discussed the 2026 market setup after a strong multi-year run. Dan Greenhaus was positive on macro tailwinds, Sonali Basak expected a constructive but choppy market with mid-to-high single-digit returns and higher long-term yields, and Cameron Dawson described a lower-return, earnings-driven year with volatility. The panel also dismissed the negative Santa Claus rally signal.

  • Panelists debated the stock market setup for 2026 after a strong four-year run for top stocks.
  • Dan Greenhaus cited stronger earnings growth, an intact AI story, and an accommodative Fed as bullish tailwinds.
  • Sonali Basak expects a constructive but choppy year with mid-to-high single-digit returns.
  • She also sees more upside risk to longer-term Treasury yields regardless of rate cuts.
  • Cameron Dawson expects a lower-return year where valuations stay flat and earnings drive gains.
  • Dan Greenhaus dismissed the negative Santa Claus rally indicator as unimportant.
  • The panel noted AI theme selectivity and rate sensitivity as key market factors.
Ideas
Dan Greenhaus Chief Strategist, ICAP 0:26
Macro tailwinds keep pushing markets higher.
The market is set up well for the new year because trends from the end of last year remain in place: stronger earnings growth, an intact AI story, and a Fed that is accommodative rather than restrictive, with ongoing purchases. He sees these macro tailwinds as likely to keep driving markets higher in the immediate future.
SPY HIGH
Sonali Basak Global Finance Correspondent, Bloomberg 2:15
Constructive but choppy stock market in 2026.
She expects a constructive but choppy stock market in 2026, with a positive backdrop but only mid-to-high single-digit returns. She notes AI theme selectivity and rate sensitivity as reasons the market may be choppy.
SPY HIGH
Sonali Basak Global Finance Correspondent, Bloomberg 2:30
Long-term yields face more upside risk.
Rate sensitivity matters: the 10-year yield is up a quarter point from October lows, and she sees more upside risk to longer-term yields even if the Fed cuts rates during the year.
10-Year Treasury Yield MED
Cameron Dawson Chief Investment Officer, New Edge Wealth 2:49
Lower returns mean earnings-driven, choppy market.
With a fair value range of 7,200-7,400 on the S&P 500, she argues a lower-return year means valuations stay where they are and earnings growth is the best source of gains. That is effectively what happened in 2025, when the market started and ended at 22 times earnings; without room for multiple expansion, investors should expect volatility along the way.
SPY MED
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This CNBC video, published January 05, 2026, features Dan Greenhaus, Sonali Basak, Cameron Dawson discussing SPY, 10-Year Treasury Yield. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Dan Greenhaus, Sonali Basak, Cameron Dawson  · Tickers: SPY, 10-Year Treasury Yield