This FOMC Changes Everything... [Stream Recap]
Speakers
Thread Guy
— Crypto influencer, independent
Summary
Thread Guy reacts live to new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting, interpreting the hawkish tone as a regime change that pressures risk assets. He reviews his personal trades: a volatile long in 'SpaceX', a short on Snapchat after a disastrous $2,200 AR glasses launch, and a bullish AMC position driven by a movie catalyst. He also discusses a Chinese AI trade setup (Zoo), the bear case for Bitcoin and Strategy's STRK, and long-term prospects for privacy coins and Hyperliquid.
- New Fed Chair Warsh signals hawkish commitment to 2% inflation, market believes more tightening is possible, risk assets sell off and the dollar rips.
- Thread Guy remains heavily long a space-stock 'SpaceX', citing tiny float, a $175 soft floor, and an all-stock acquisition incentive.
- Strategy's preferred STRC falls below $90; described as a potential death spiral if Bitcoin does not keep rising, requiring ever more yield and dilution.
- Snapchat's launch of $2,200 AR glasses is called a product failure, providing a clean event-driven short that already delivered ~19%.
- Hyperliquid is his favorite crypto, with catalysts from CFTC clarity, Anthropic/OpenAI IPOs, and potential Chinese project listings.
- AMC surges 35% after his call, boosted by the upcoming Nolan movie The Odyssey; he holds spot and outperforms Bitcoin year-to-date.
- Chinese AI company Zoo vaults to the top model spot after Fable export controls, creating a 40% rally and a special situatios trade he missed.
- Illinois enacts a 2% tax on crypto transfers, reinforcing a long-term thesis that privacy coins like Zcash will become a luxury.
Ideas
SpaceX still parabolic on tiny float.
Thread Guy remains extremely bullish on SpaceX, believing the original parabolic thesis is intact. He notes a soft floor at $175 due to listing requirements before the first earnings report, and argues the stock is undervalued because of a tiny float that will take time to expand. He also highlights that SpaceX acquired Cursor in an all-stock deal at an average price over seven trading days, so a higher stock price means fewer shares need to be issued, creating an incentive to support the price. He thinks a squeeze is due and that the market underestimates demand/supply skew.
STRC faces recursive dilution spiral.
Thread Guy sees a death-spiral risk in Strategy's preferred (STRC). To pull the price back to par, the yield must be increased, requiring more cash dividends and more share issuance, which dilutes MSTR and pressures the mNAV. This creates a recursive flywheel where Bitcoin must keep rising to justify the structure; otherwise demand falls and yields must rise further, worsening the spiral. He says he won't touch it at an 11% yield and calls it a scary thought.
Elon may want Tesla lower for merger.
There is a contrarian thesis that Elon Musk wants Tesla's stock as low as possible ahead of a merger with SpaceX, so that fewer shares are needed in an all-stock deal. This creates a bearish overhang on Tesla, as Musk may be incentivized to suppress the price. Thread Guy finds the short interesting but is still afraid to act on it.
Bitcoin vulnerable to new lows.
Thread Guy has turned cautious on Bitcoin. He sold his Bitcoin to rotate into AMC and StubHub, and believes new lows are still on the table. The chart looks ugly after the FOMC, and with a possible hawkish rate-hike cycle from the new Fed chair, risk assets like Bitcoin are vulnerable. He does not see a clear catalyst to reverse the downtrend soon.
Snap's $2,200 glasses are a product failure.
Snapchat just launched AR glasses at $2,200, which Thread Guy views as a disastrous product—ugly, impractical, and far too expensive. He argues that Meta's Ray-Ban glasses at $450 already serve the niche well, and Snapchat's offering has no appeal. This product failure creates a clean event-driven short opportunity; the stock dumped 13% on launch and another 7% the next day, offering a nearly 19% gain in a short trade.
Hyperliquid has massive catalyst tailwinds.
Hyperliquid (HYPE) looks incredibly strong and remains his top crypto pick. He sees near-term positive delta from the CFTC clarity act, the upcoming Anthropic IPO, the possible OpenAI IPO, and potential listing of Chinese open-source projects like Zepoo and Mini Max on Hyperliquid. He believes that as Robinhood rises, it lifts price targets for Hyperliquid. The only risk is macro-driven market weakness, but the chart and catalysts remain exceptionally bullish.
Privacy coins gain as surveillance tightens.
Illinois signed a 2% tax on crypto transactions including personal wallet transfers, signaling a future where privacy is a luxury. Thread Guy sees this as a long-term tailwind for privacy coins. He believes Zcash and similar privacy assets will become increasingly valuable, though the timeline may be extended. He is considering a long position.
Copper breakout above 66-67 worth watching.
Thread Guy likes copper and is waiting for a breakout. He says if copper makes a move and rips above 66–67, he will be interested in getting long. The metal is holding up well, and he sees upside potential once it clears that resistance level.
AMC movie catalyst driving strong momentum.
Thread Guy is bullish on AMC, holding a large spot position. He highlights the upcoming release of Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey in less than a month as a catalyst, and notes that since he announced his position AMC has rallied 35% in a straight line, outperforming a year of Bitcoin gains. He remains fully invested and is not selling.
Zoo became number one AI model play.
Thread Guy highlights a powerful event-driven trade in Zoo, a Chinese AI company. The US export controls effectively removed Anthropic's Fable model from the market, and Zoo's open-source GLM 5.2 became the best available model—cheap and unrestricted. The stock rallied 40% on the news. He argues the re-rating is justified and the situation is a classic black-swan special situation, though he missed the initial entry.
