Chesley Morning Brief: New York Stocks Rise Slightly Despite Powell Investigation; S&P 500 and Nasdaq Hit Record Highs [26/01/13]

[체슬리모닝브리프] 뉴욕증시, 파월 수사에도 소폭 상승…S&P500·나스닥 '사상 최고치' [26/01/13]
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 13, 2026 at 00:26  |  1:43:06  |  Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문)
Speakers
Seo Yeong — Analyst
Choi Ho — Vice President
Wang Jeong — Department Head
Park Se-ik — CEO, ex-Chief Strategist

Summary

The Chesley Morning Brief for January 13, 2026, covers US market action, crypto, domestic Korean stocks, and China. The team discusses Fed independence risk, the Apple-Google AI partnership, data-center capex, credit-card rate-cap risk, Bitcoin and yen carry trade correlation, bank earnings with AI-driven operating leverage, Korean semiconductor exports and HBM, Hyundai Motor’s physical AI re-rating, and Chinese lithium and Yili. The main implications are that AI adoption is broadening into financials and data centers, Korean export strength is concentrated in semiconductors, and China offers selective value in dairy and lithium.

  • US equities hit records despite Fed independence concerns and rising long-term rates.
  • Apple-Google AI partnership supports Alphabet and gives Apple a practical Siri upgrade.
  • Data-center capex forecasts boost neo-cloud names like Nebius, CoreWeave, and Oracle.
  • Trump’s proposed credit-card rate cap pressures card lenders and related loyalty partners.
  • Bitcoin trades in a wide range, with focus on yen carry trade correlation and January options/Clarity Act.
  • Bank earnings season shifts focus to AI-driven cost efficiency and positive operating leverage.
  • Korean exports show strong semiconductor and HBM momentum but weak autos and ships.
  • Hyundai Motor is discussed as a physical AI/robotics re-rating candidate, while China lithium and Yili draw attention.
Ideas
Seo Yeong Analyst 6:27
Geopolitical risk lifts metals to records.
Geopolitical risk and uncertainty are pushing gold, silver, and copper to record highs even as long-term rates rise; these commodities are benefiting from the risk-off and inflation-hedge backdrop.
Seo Yeong Analyst 7:17
Google gains from Apple Gemini deal.
Apple’s deal to use Google Gemini for Siri and Google Cloud confirms Google’s mobile ecosystem dominance and Gemini adoption momentum, making Alphabet a relative winner in the AI assistant partnership.
Seo Yeong Analyst 7:17
Apple AI deal helps but gap remains.
Apple’s use of Google Gemini is a practical Siri upgrade that could support iPhone replacement demand, but Apple still has a long-term gap in securing proprietary AI capabilities.
Seo Yeong Analyst 9:30
Data-center capex boom lifts neo-clouds.
Moody’s forecast of over $3 trillion in data-center infrastructure spending over five years, with construction still early and capex expanding over the next 12-18 months, benefits neo-cloud and data-center-related names.
Seo Yeong Analyst 10:19
Nvidia-Lilly AI lab partnership is win-win.
Nvidia and Eli Lilly’s $1 billion, five-year AI biotech R&D lab partnership is win-win: Lilly can accelerate drug development and improve R&D efficiency, while Nvidia can diversify its revenue beyond big tech into healthcare.
Seo Yeong Analyst 12:43
Meta hire aids AI data-center funding.
Meta’s appointment of a Trump-connected executive to lead government and sovereign fund cooperation should strengthen its relationship with the administration and improve its position on energy regulation and infrastructure support as it funds massive AI data-center plans.
Seo Yeong Analyst 14:43
Credit-card rate cap threatens card lenders.
Trump’s proposed 10% credit-card interest-rate cap is unrealistic but, if pursued, would hurt card lenders’ profitability, rewards programs, and related airline/hotel loyalty partners; regulation remains a monitoring risk.
Seo Yeong Analyst 20:23
Watch Bitcoin options and Clarity Act catalyst.
Bitcoin’s short-term price has become highly correlated with USD/JPY and the yen carry trade; yen weakness supports BTC via carry-trade activation, while yen strength or BOJ intervention near 160 pressures BTC.
Seo Yeong Analyst 21:18
Strategy has unique Bitcoin financing advantage.
Strategy continues large Bitcoin purchases and has a unique financing advantage through convertible bonds/ATM, while other digital-asset-treasury companies may struggle to survive; MSCI exclusion limits passive inflows but the impact is manageable.
Choi Ho Vice President 31:01
Banks with EPS leverage outperform.
Financials are among the fastest AI adopters, and the key for bank stocks is operating leverage: banks with EPS growth exceeding revenue growth, driven by AI-related cost efficiency, should outperform as Q4 earnings season begins.
Choi Ho Vice President 32:45
IT leads AI adoption and EPS growth.
The IT sector is expected to show revenue growth of 18% and EPS growth of 25.9% in Q4, and together with financials it is the fastest area for AI adoption, supporting operating leverage and earnings momentum.
Choi Ho Vice President 38:37
BlackRock fee compression limits earnings leverage.
BlackRock grows revenue double digits but EPS growth lags because ETF/passive products have lower fees and competition is causing fee compression, so the stock lacks the operating leverage that drives peer outperformance.
Choi Ho Vice President 59:12
MLCC and FC-BGA lift Samsung Electro-Mechanics.
Samsung Electro-Mechanics is rising on MLCC price increases and expectations that FC-BGA package solutions will improve in the second half, with recent reports suggesting its Q4 results may be stronger than usual for a seasonally slow quarter.
Choi Ho Vice President 60:24
LG Energy Solution earnings bottoming.
LG Energy Solution’s earnings shock may mark the bottom, and investors expect quarterly results to improve from here, supporting a rebound in the battery chain.
Choi Ho Vice President 61:33
US Navy momentum lifts Korean shipbuilders.
Korean shipbuilders are strong on US Navy/military momentum; Hanwha Ocean has the strongest price momentum despite a valuation premium, while HD Hyundai Heavy Industries is seen as more attractive on valuation.
Choi Ho Vice President 62:28
LIG Nex1 gains from robotics and defense.
LIG Nex1 is the strongest defense stock due to its Ghost Robotics stake, robot momentum, and reports of Japanese military use, along with second-half earnings expectations.
Choi Ho Vice President 64:51
Samsung HBM ramp drives memory exports.
Korean semiconductor exports are strong, especially HBM shipments to Taiwan for GPUs, and Samsung’s HBM ramp should increase volume as AI-related memory demand continues.
Choi Ho Vice President 72:36
Hyundai Motor re-rates as physical AI play.
Hyundai Motor is being re-rated as a physical AI/robotics and autonomous driving play; CES concretized its humanoid strategy, it partners with Google DeepMind to offset software weaknesses, and the market may allow a move toward 10x forward P/E, implying around 30% upside.
Wang Jeong Department Head 87:10
Lithium carbonate rises on export tax change.
Lithium carbonate futures broke above 150,000 yuan, and further upside is possible because China’s battery export tax rebate will be cut from 9% to 6% on April 1 and abolished next year, pulling forward exports and raising Q1 utilization.
Wang Jeong Department Head 88:22
Yili offers dairy recovery and 5% yield.
Yili is the leading Chinese dairy player with milk prices at 10-year lows and most of the industry losing money, setting up a potential supply-driven price rebound; product mix improvement should lift margins, and a 70% dividend payout gives a 4-5% yield with 42% upside based on a 20x P/E target.
Choi Ho Vice President 97:31
KOSPI expected to close higher today.
After yesterday’s intraday recovery, the KOSPI is expected to close positive today, with autos, defense, and shipbuilding showing strength.
Choi Ho Vice President 100:42
Robot theme to lead through May-June.
The robot theme is expected to lead the Korean market through May-June this year, with Hyundai Motor Group and other robot-related names attracting momentum.
Up Next

This Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문) video, published January 13, 2026, features Seo Yeong, Choi Ho, Wang Jeong discussing GLD, SILVER, COPPER, GOOG, AAPL, NEBIUS, CoreWeave, ORCL, NVDA, LLY, META, COF, SYF, AXP, V, MA, DAL, BTC, STRATEGY, XLF, XLK, BLK, 036530.KS, 373220.KS, 042660.KS, 329180.KS, 079550.KS, 005930.KS, 005380.KS, Lithium carbonate, 600887.SS, EWY, Korean Robotics. 22 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Seo Yeong, Choi Ho, Wang Jeong  · Tickers: GLD, SILVER, COPPER, GOOG, AAPL, NEBIUS, CoreWeave, ORCL, NVDA, LLY, META, COF, SYF, AXP, V, MA, DAL, BTC, STRATEGY, XLF, XLK, BLK, 036530.KS, 373220.KS, 042660.KS, 329180.KS, 079550.KS, 005930.KS, 005380.KS, Lithium carbonate, 600887.SS, EWY, Korean Robotics